Gale Warning 22, NWS Baltimore/Washington

326 
WHUS71 KLWX 312347
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
747 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

ANZ530>543-010800-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0174.210901T0400Z-210901T1600Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0022.210901T1600Z-210902T1000Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
747 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, south winds 15 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, east winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Smith Point VA, 
  and Chesapeake Bay and adjoining estuaries north of Smith 
  Point VA.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from noon Wednesday to 6 AM EDT 
  Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from midnight tonight 
  to noon EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will be most likely in or 
  near showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

856 
WHUS71 KLWX 010757
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

ANZ530>543-011600-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0174.000000T0000Z-210901T1600Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0022.210901T1600Z-210902T1000Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
357 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, south winds 15 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, southeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  20 kt.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Smith Point VA, 
  and Chesapeake Bay and adjoining estuaries north of Smith 
  Point VA.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from noon today to 6 AM EDT 
  Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will be most likely in or 
  near showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

699 
WHUS71 KLWX 011555
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1155 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

ANZ530>543-020000-
/O.EXP.KLWX.SC.Y.0174.000000T0000Z-210901T1600Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0022.210901T1600Z-210902T1000Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
1155 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves
  2 to 4 ft expected. Winds will turn northerly this evening and
  remain northerly overnight.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Smith Point VA, 
  and Chesapeake Bay and adjoining estuaries north of Smith 
  Point VA.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will be most likely in or 
  near showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

166 
WHUS71 KLWX 011928
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
328 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

ANZ531>533-537-539>541-020800-
/O.EXT.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T1500Z-210902T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
328 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  north winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 2 to 
  4 ft expected.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island MD to Drum Point MD, 
  Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA, Chester 
  River to Queenstown MD, Eastern Bay, and Choptank River to 
  Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 11 AM EDT Thursday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will be most likely in or 
  near showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ534-543-020800-
/O.EXT.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T1800Z-210902T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
328 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 
  up to 40 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  north winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 2 to 
  4 ft expected.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA 
  and Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding 
  Bloodsworth Island.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 2 PM EDT Thursday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will be most likely in or 
  near showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-535-536-538-542-020800-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T1000Z-210902T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
328 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt. For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 10 to 
  20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, 
  Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD, Patapsco River 
  including Baltimore Harbor, and Patuxent River to Broomes 
  Island MD.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 6 AM EDT Thursday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will be most likely in or 
  near showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

411 
WHUS71 KLWX 020534
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
134 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

ANZ535-536-538-542-021345-
/O.CAN.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1000Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T0534Z-210902T2200Z/
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
134 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, 
  Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, and Patuxent River 
  to Broomes Island MD.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-021345-
/O.EXT.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T1500Z-210902T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
134 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt. For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 
  15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 11 AM EDT this morning. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT 
  this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ531>533-537-539>541-021345-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1500Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T1500Z-210902T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
134 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, north winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 4 ft expected.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island MD to Drum Point MD, 
  Chester River to Queenstown MD, Choptank River to Cambridge MD 
  and the Little Choptank River, Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island 
  MD to Smith Point VA, and Eastern Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 11 AM EDT this morning. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT 
  this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ534-543-021345-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1800Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T1800Z-210902T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
134 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, north winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 4 ft expected.

* WHERE...Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding 
  Bloodsworth Island and Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to 
  Smith Point VA.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM 
  EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

282 
WHUS71 KLWX 020812
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

ANZ531>533-537-539>541-021615-
/O.CAN.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T0812Z-210903T1000Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 4 ft.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island MD to Drum Point MD, 
  Chester River to Queenstown MD, Choptank River to Cambridge MD 
  and the Little Choptank River, Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island 
  MD to Smith Point VA, and Eastern Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ534-543-021615-
/O.CAN.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T0812Z-210903T1000Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 4 ft.

* WHERE...Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding 
  Bloodsworth Island and Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to 
  Smith Point VA.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-021615-
/O.CAN.KLWX.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210902T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.210902T0812Z-210902T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ535-536-538-542-021615-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0175.000000T0000Z-210902T2200Z/
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, 
  Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, and Patuxent River 
  to Broomes Island MD.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1045 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall near the region today. The remnants of Ida
will interact with this front Wednesday into Thursday morning
before both move offshore by Thursday evening. High pressure
then builds in for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-morning update: No major changes to the previous forecast
this morning. The frontal boundary sagging southward into our
forecast area is rather diffuse, and doesn't have much low-level
convergence associated with it. Showers are ongoing across
northwestern portions of the forecast area, but coverage of
showers and/or storms may remain rather low across the rest of
the area through a good portion of daylight hours. The best
daytime heating and resultant surface based instability will
reside from central VA to southern MD, where sunshine is
currently occurring. The northern two-thirds of the forecast
area should see cloud cover through much of the day. As a
result, the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon would reside from central VA to southern MD within
that zone of strongest instability. However, it is a conditional
threat, since questions remain about coverage of storms, with
surface convergence remaining limited.

Coverage of showers/thunderstorms should start to increase
moving into the evening hours as isentropic ascent starts to
occur atop the aforementioned frontal boundary, which should
reach near central VA by late in the day. This will lead to
showers with embedded thunderstorms developing across much of
the forecast area this evening. This zone of showers and storms
will gradually lift toward the north along with the frontal zone
overnight, allowing many locations to the east of the Blue Ridge
to be precipitation free by daybreak. Steady rainfall will
persist across western MD and the WV Panhandle, where the
remnants of Ida will start to interact with the frontal
boundary/right entrance region of the upper jet situated off to
our north. Previous discussion follows...

A frontal boundary associated with a deep upper low centered just to
the east of the Hudson Bay is currently situated near the PA
border. This front will continue to sag down into our area
through the day today and into Wednesday. Tropical Depression
Ida is currently centered near the MS/AL/TN triple point and is
tracking slowly to the north and east.

Some light to moderate showers are forming in our NW zones well
ahead of TD Ida's approach to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect some
showers to continue to reside over northwestern portions of the
forecast area this morning as the stalled frontal boundary sinks
southward and moisture progresses northward in advance of Ida.
Highest likelihood for precip would be across the northern
portions of the CWA during the morning hours and move further
south as the frontal boundary becomes situated across portions
of central VA and southern MD by later in the afternoon.

Given there is going to be increased cloud coverage, questions
remain about the amount of instability that will develop over
the area. Winds aloft are going to increase throughout the day.
This along with the chance for some convergence with the
stalled frontal boundary may pose a threat for thunderstorms
with some becoming severe, mainly along and south of the DC
metro areas and I-81 east towards the I-95 corridor. Main impact
will be for damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of
flooding. A Slight Risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) for today for the aforementioned area of interest.

Ida's remnants will begin to push through the area from the SW
towards the NE portions of the CWA by late tonight and into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday continues to have the potential to be a high impact
weather day for our area. In summary, northwestern portions of
our forecast area need to prepare for significant rainfall and
the threat for flash and river flooding. The southeastern half
may see less rain overall, but will have a greater risk of
tornadoes, likely during the afternoon and evening. River
impacts are discussed in the hydrology section below.

Some guidance is indicating the system comes in two pieces.
During the morning hours, the heaviest and most widespread
rainfall will likely continue to be west of the Blue Ridge in
the zone of isentropic ascent/tropical moisture flux. This could
serve to allow some additional heating to occur especially over
southeastern portions of the area, allowing greater instability
to build. The low center will cross our area during the late
afternoon and evening, potentially strengthening as it
encounters increasing baroclinicity along the stalled front.
While models continue to wobble some, and there is definitely
some spread in exact solutions, the main stories remain in tact.
Precipitable water values will exceed two inches during this
time with deep, tropical warm cloud layers. A sharp mid level
trough and jet streak to the north will provide additional
forcing. Therefore, very high rain rates are possible during
this time, which could be especially hazardous to our
northwestern counties which will have already had a healthy
soaking of rain. Widespread and significant flooding could occur
in these areas if the worst case rain totals verify. However,
anywhere these rain rates persist for any amount of time could
see flash flooding. Meanwhile, low level shear will increase
markedly, especially near the low track and frontal zone, but
shear will be large across the warm sector. Model forecasts of
instability, low level lapse rates, and the shear combine to
suggest tornadoes will be a threat in the warm sector. Initial
CAM depictions of broken/cellular convection also support this
idea. Given the strong winds aloft, storms could also cause
damaging wind gusts. At this time, am not sure we are able to
mix into the strong wind fields aloft enough to warrant wind
advisories, but in general gradient winds will also increase as
the low passes.

Precipitation will taper off from west to east late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, and clearing should rapidly follow.
Timing of departure is still a little uncertain, but most areas
should be dry by afternoon. Gusty north winds will continue, and
temperatures will remain below normal even where the sun comes
out. Lower humidity levels and cold advection will allow for
temperatures to dip into the 50s and lower 60s Thursday night,
with some potential 40s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The remnants of Ida is expected to be off-shore by Friday
morning with high pressure building in from the the Great Lakes
region. Our region will still feel the effects from Ida in the
form of a northerly flow on the far western edge of the remnant
system. The northerly flow will lead to cooler and drier air
building into our region Friday and continuing into the early
parts of this weekend. Dry conditions expected Friday and
Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s Friday and
the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday. Near to below average
overnight lows are forecast both Friday and Saturday evening in
the 50s to lower 60s.

A return flow is forecast to return on Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Ahead of the front, a southerly flow
will lead to weak warm air with afternoon highs trending up into the
mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Showers will be possible late
Sunday afternoon and into the evening as the front combined with
shortwave energy aloft provides enough lift for precipitation to
form.  I believe the threat for thunderstorms will be minimal as the
shear remains weak and the instability is low. Winds will become
northwesterly behind the frontal passage and cooler and drier air
should limit the threat for any precipitation on Monday. Overnight
lows Sunday into Monday will be mild in the 60s with highs peaking
in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through much of the day today.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
afternoon into this evening, with terminals potentially seeing
brief restrictions during the first half of the overnight
hours. Rain may move out of many of the terminals to the east of
the Blue Ridge by daybreak, and this lull may persist through
much of the morning, with the exception of MRB.

Wednesday's forecast will be affected by the remnants of
Hurricane Ida. Heavy rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and low
ceilings are all possible, with a focus for the afternoon and
evening in the Baltimore/Washington metro. Improving conditions
should arrive by Thursday, although gusty northerly winds in
excess of 20 knots will continue through the day.

Moist conditions coupled with decoupling of winds will likely lead
to patchy fog Friday morning. A northerly flow behind Ida will
lead to clearing of skies along with VFR conditions through
Saturday. Precipitation may return Sunday and lead to brief
SUBVFR restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Light westerly flow will keep any potential marine hazards at bay.
Other than a brief shower/thunderstorm (SMW) this afternoon and
evening, no other marine hazards expected during this period.

Winds are expected increase Wednesday into Thursday as the
remnants of Hurricane Ida pass through the region. At this time,
have issued a Small Craft Advisory for portions of the waters
near southern Maryland where it appears south/southeast winds
will increase first during the afternoon. Additional Small
Craft Advisories are likely going to be needed by Wednesday
night through Thursday night. While gale conditions are
possible, am thinking the strongest winds will have difficulty
mixing down outside of thunderstorms, although gradient winds
will be close if the low is stronger than expected. Those
thunderstorms could also produce waterspouts, especially
Wednesday evening.

A stacked northerly channeling flow on Friday may require Small
Craft Advisories for parts of our Chesapeake Bay Zones. SubSCA
conditions expected this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The remnants of Ida will interact with a stalled frontal
boundary over our region tonight through early Thursday
morning. This will result in a period of very heavy rainfall,
particularly near the MD/PA border and into eastern WV. Average
rainfall amounts currently expected to be around 3-6 inches in
this area, with locally high end amounts of 8-10 inches
possible. Areas further south and east will be closer to 2-4
inches. Isolated higher amounts are possible where rainfall is
enhanced by terrain features. Training heavy rainfall is
expected with this system, so areas that get stuck under heavy
training elements could also see isolated much higher amounts.
This amount of rainfall would result in scattered to numerous
instances of flooding/flash flooding, some considerable.
Additionally, in the days following, expect river flooding to
become an issue. Could see minor to moderate flooding on some of
the main stem rivers where the heaviest rainfall occurs, with
major flooding not entirely out of the question. We have issued
River Flood Watches for points which the MARFC is already
categorically forecasting rises above flood stage. Additional
watches will likely be issued as confidence increases and the
event draws nearer.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies will slowly rise over the next few days as the remnants of
Ida approach from the southwest and impacts our region. Strong
shifting winds may combine with fresh water inflow to pile up water
along our western coast of the Chesapeake Bay. Coastal water levels
are forecast to reach minor flood stage late Wednesday and into
Thursday at both DC waterfront and Annapolis. ETSS ensembles along
with the Stevens ensembles have the possibilities that coastal water
levels could reach moderate flood stage along the Chesapeake Bay
coast during the Thursday morning high tide.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     morning for DCZ001.
MD...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday
     night for MDZ001-003-501-502.
     Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     morning for MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday
     night for VAZ025>031-503-504.
     Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     morning for VAZ036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508.
WV...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday
     night for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     morning for ANZ535.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...KJP/ADM
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KJP/JMG/ADM
MARINE...JMG/ADM
HYDROLOGY...LWX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
529 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-010930-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
529 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
possible this afternoon and evening, mainly near and south of the
Washington Metropolitan Area. An isolated instance of flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday morning through
early Thursday morning. Heavy tropical rainfall could result in
considerable flash flooding. Flooding on mainstem rivers may then
persist through the end of the week.

Scattered damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible
with thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Gale Warnings may be needed Wednesday night.

Moderate tidal flooding is possible Wednesday into Wednesday
night at sensitive low-lying coastal locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary today and Wednesday.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-010930-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
529 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce an isolated
damaging wind gust or an isolated instance of flooding, generally
near and south of Interstate 66.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for locations west of the Blue
Ridge and Catoctin Mountains late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Flash Flood Watch continues for locations west of the Blue
Ridge and Catoctin Mountains through late Wednesday night. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for central Maryland and north-
central Virginia from Wednesday morning through early Thursday
morning. Heavy tropical rainfall could result in considerable
flash flooding. River flooding is also possible, which could
continue through the end of the week.

Scattered damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible
with thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

A River Flood Watch is in effect for several river basins in
parts of western and northern Maryland and the eastern panhandle
of West Virginia starting Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary today and Wednesday.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-010930-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
529 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms could produce an isolated instance of
flooding this afternoon and evening.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect starting late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Flash Flood Watch continues through late Wednesday night. Heavy
tropical rainfall could result in considerable flash flooding.
River flooding is also possible, which could continue into
Thursday.

A River Flood Watch is in effect for a few river basins in parts
of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia starting Thursday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary today and Wednesday.