Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Lubbock, TX

781 
WWUS54 KLUB 180136
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
836 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

TXC075-191-180200-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-210918T0200Z/
Childress TX-Hall TX-
836 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN CHILDRESS AND EAST CENTRAL HALL COUNTIES...

At 836 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast
of Memphis, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Childress and Estelline. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 10016 3441 10053 3470 10046 3470 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 000DEG 14KT 3466 10035 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RMCQUEEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
601 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.AVIATION...
Overall VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible mainly at CDS. Some low clouds
could be possible mainly west of the terminals later tonight but
is currently not expected to impact the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/

SHORT TERM...
A cold front with a pronounced north-south orientation continues to
move slowly southward and as of 1 PM was generally along a Hobbs to
Tulia line. Winds to the north of the front suggest there will be a
little more of a push southward, especially toward the northern end
before stalling in the face of a warm and well-mixed air mass to the
south. At that point there is a rather inconsistent range of
solutions regarding convective potential along the stalling front in
both the potential itself and, if convection forms, where it will be
located. Two mechanisms seem to be at play. The initial one is
surface/low level convergence along the boundary, the WRF-NAM being
the most bullish with this aspect while the remaining various hi-res
models remain rather sparse with their progged precipitation. Those
that do convect favor the eastern Panhandle, secondarily down toward
the north-central part of the LUB forecast area. This seems
reasonable given increasing heights aloft and the relatively deep
dry air noted on water vapor imagery this afternoon. Given the
inability to rule out evening storms, will continue with a slight
chance mention immediately to the east and south of the frontal
boundary. The second mechanism appears to be mid level isentropic
lift developing later tonight across the eastern Panhandle and
western Oklahoma, a solution favored exclusively by the global
models. Water vapor imagery suggests the need for some of the
modest mid level moisture over Oklahoma to advect back to the
west. While not out of the question, at this point that looks
unlikely, and without support from the hi-res models, will keep
the post-06Z free of precip mention.

On Saturday, low level flow backs from north/northeast to
east/southeast during the day while upper ridge remains overhead.
There are some minor signals that modestly-moist upslope flow might
be able to generate a rouge shower or two, but for now the
possibility is too remote to insert a mention into the forecast.

LONG TERM...
The aforementioned cold front is expected to remain stalled over the
CWA Saturday evening. There are some indications that moist
isentropic ascent along the boundary may lead to some precipitation
during the early evening hours tomorrow. However, confidence remains
too low to include mentionable PoPs in the forecast at this time. An
upper trough will move across the PNW Sunday, and a lee cyclone will
form east of the Rockies, resulting in southeasterly winds on Sunday
and high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal. A cold front
will push a front towards the area on Monday, and the lee cyclone
will move to the southeast. As the cyclone moves towards the area,
surface winds will become mainly downslope. As the front approaches,
it will cause compressional warming. The combination of the
downslope flow and compressional warming will result in a hot day
Monday, with highs topping out in the mid-90s over the South Plains
and near 100 over the Rolling Plains. The cold front will move
through the area late Monday and is expected to be a dry passage as
it moves through the FA quickly. The front will drop high
temperatures into the upper-70s and  low-80s through the middle of
the week; before an upper high becomes centered near the area,
bringing high temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s for the
latter part of the week.
GKendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

51/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
925 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

TXZ021>044-181430-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
925 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form along a cold front that
will move into the South Plains area late this afternoon to this
evening. The strongest storms may be capable of producing wind gusts
to near 60 mph with the greatest threat being to the east of a
Silverton to Brownfield line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
707 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

TXZ032-180030-
Cottle TX-
707 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cottle
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Swearingen, or 14 miles north of Paducah, moving
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Swearingen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 10040 3431 10016 3413 10008 3410 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 347DEG 7KT 3422 10028

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RMCQUEEN