Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Lubbock, TX

948 
WWUS54 KLUB 281815
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
115 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXC107-281830-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-210528T1830Z/
Crosby TX-
115 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CROSBY COUNTY...

At 114 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Ralls, or 5 miles northwest of Crosbyton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Crosbyton and Ralls. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Very heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to 
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 10144 3373 10144 3383 10110 3383 10106
      3359 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 266DEG 24KT 3368 10131 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

MRC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing for the next
several hours across the region with greatest chances at KLBB for
now. They may cause some brief but erratic winds at terminals.
Storms may move into the region from the west late this evening
but confidence in any evening storm hitting a TAF site is low at
the moment. Low CIGS will likely make a return tonight but it
remains very unclear at the moment on whether CIGS will drop into
IFR range.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021/

SHORT TERM...
An arcing band of low stratus (likely fractus) associated with
convective outflow originating from south-central Oklahoma is
propagating westward across the Rolling Plains and southern Texas
Panhandle this early morning. Wind gusts abruptly increased at
several West Texas Mesonet sites following passage of this outflow
as it moves across the vicinity of the quasi-stationary front draped
across the region. Meanwhile, isolated showers and pulsating
thunderstorms were ongoing across the extreme southwestern Texas
Panhandle as of 0609Z, persisting through at least sunrise while
remaining well below severe limits. Low stratus will quickly
overspread the forecast area by the mid-morning hours owing to
modest, easterly upslope flow as the stalling front drifts
southwestward. The combination of an overcast sky and low-level,
upslope flow will greatly inhibit the degree of diabatic heating,
with temperatures peaking in the lower-middle 70s area-wide today.

Later this afternoon, a mid/upper-level ridge axis, now centered
over the Four Corners and Intermountain West regions and decreasing
in amplitude with southward extent, will progress over the CWA while
deep-layer flow remains westerly. While insolation will be limited,
the unidirectional, mid/upper-level westerlies will keep the EML
intact with approximately 2,500-3,500 J/kg MUCAPE surmounted by
lower 30 mb mean dewpoints around 58-61 deg F and a fairly large
separation of LCL-LFC. The enlarged area of upward-forced stable air
with ~20 kt of easterly low-level storm-relative inflow beneath
unidirectional flow aloft yields hodograph orientations favorable
for the development of isolated (possibly scattered), non-surface
based, classic supercells given anvil-level storm-relative winds
near 50 kt across the Texas/New Mexico state line.

Depending on how many storms form and become supercellular within
an environment conducive for storm-splits, destructive
interference will be possible along with efficient downshearing of
anvil debris, which will affect the longevity of both storm
organization and intensity. Nonetheless, storms will initially
have an attendant risk of producing large hail up to two inches in
diameter (i.e. around billiard ball size) across the western
South Plains before updrafts are entrained by dry air and sheared
apart while convective inhibition increases near sunset. The best
potential for a severe hail report or two should remain west and
southwest of the I-27 and Highway 87 corridors, and not everyone
will observe rain this afternoon and evening as the risk for
storms remains conditional.

Sincavage

LONG TERM...
An active pattern will continue through much of the forecast
period, albeit with a brief respite on Saturday as upper level
short wave ridging moves overhead. Upstream from the upper ridge
will be a closed low positioned over southern Arizona late in the
weekend, the bulk of the energy ejecting to the east-northeast
through Monday, but with a broad upper trough remaining over the
intermountain West southeastward to West Texas. This pattern will
likely be a wet one for the forecast area on Sunday and Monday as
the energy ejects from the upper low, bringing its own mid level
moisture and steepening mid level lapse rates. Surface
temperatures should remain on the cool side both days with highs
in the 70s, but dew points in the 60s should still result in some
periods of healthy instability while increasing and deepening
moisture will result in high PWAT with resulting potential for
heavy rain. Lingering cyclonic curvature over the forecast area
toward the base of the broader upper trough centered over the
Mississippi Valley will continue to bring chance for mainly
diurnally-driven thunderstorms through at least Wednesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1127 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ021>044-291630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1127 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be
possible this afternoon and evening across the western and central
South Plains. Storms that do form will have the potential to produce
large hail up to two inches in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph.
Also, heavy rain may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon and evening will be small
and confined to areas near the New Mexico state line. There is a
marginal risk that these storms could become severe. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday and will
bring the potential for heavy rain and severe weather. Thunderstorm
chances will persist Tuesday and Wednesday and may again bring a risk
for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
924 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 AM     HAIL             FRIONA                  34.64N 102.72W
05/28/2021  M1.25 INCH       PARMER             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100369

CALDRICH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1156 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ034-035-281730-
Hockley TX-Lubbock TX-
1156 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LUBBOCK...
NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY...SOUTHWESTERN HALE AND SOUTHERN LAMB COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1156 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Whitharral, or 10 miles north of Levelland, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Anton, Whitharral, Reese Center and Smyer.

LAT...LON 3382 10238 3383 10226 3383 10199 3357 10202
      3364 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 275DEG 18KT 3373 10230

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1232 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ029-034-035-281800-
Hockley TX-Lubbock TX-Hale TX-
1232 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LUBBOCK...SOUTHWESTERN
FLOYD...WESTERN CROSBY...NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY...SOUTHERN HALE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAMB COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1231 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
just northwest of Shallowater, or 12 miles southwest of Abernathy,
moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abernathy, Shallowater, Idalou, Petersburg, Lubbock International
Airport and New Deal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 10215 3382 10213 3382 10209 3383 10209
      3398 10156 3360 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 270DEG 25KT 3372 10200

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             SHALLOWATER             33.69N 101.99W
05/28/2021  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF NICKEL TO QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100370

MCONDER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1258 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ029-035-281830-
Lubbock TX-Hale TX-
1258 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LUBBOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN
HALE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Lubbock International Airport, or 6 miles south of
Abernathy, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Idalou, Petersburg, Lubbock International Airport and New
Deal.

LAT...LON 3366 10196 3373 10199 3387 10175 3393 10157
      3358 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 266DEG 24KT 3374 10183

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1259 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ036-281830-
Crosby TX-
1259 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CROSBY COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM CDT...

At 1258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ralls, or 11 miles west of Crosbyton, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crosbyton, Ralls and Lorenzo.

LAT...LON 3363 10156 3376 10156 3383 10116 3355 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 266DEG 24KT 3368 10144

MRC