Alert archive / California / Red Flag Warnings in 2021
Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Los Angeles, CA
NWS Los Angeles, CA issued this red flag warning at Nov 19, 2021, 2:15 PM PST for Los Angeles County, California. It took effect at Nov 21, 2021, 9:00 AM PST. It was in force for 30 hr. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 19, 2021, 2:15 PM PST (22:15 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 21, 2021, 9:00 AM PST
- Expired
- Nov 22, 2021, 3:00 PM PST
- In force
- 30 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Los Angeles, CA
County Los Angeles County, CA
The radar
The Santa Ana Mts radar (KSOX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 9:30 AM PST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 3 Nnw Chatsworth, CA | MESONET STATION 470SE PALO SOLA TRUCK RD (SCE). |
| Nov 21, 10:53 AM PST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 8 Ese Castaic Lake, CA | MESONET STATION WMSC1 WARM SPRINGS RAWS. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Edwards AFB, CA (KEDW), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2907 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
001 WWUS86 KLOX 192215 RFWLOX URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 215 PM PST Fri Nov 19 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 3 PM MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 10 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... .Northeast to east Santa Ana winds are still on track to increase late Saturday Night into Sunday, with the peak winds expected Sunday morning and afternoon. During this peak, offshore wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph are expected across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties,with isolated gusts up to 60 mph in favored mountain and foothill locations. In addiiton, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph could extend into the mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Monday morning, however wind speeds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph less than Sunday. Humidities are expected to fall to around 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, potentially lowering to between 8 and 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Temperatures generally look to peak between 75 and 85 degrees. The potential for Red Flag conditions is around 80 percent for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, resulting in this upgrade to a Red Flag Warning. The confidence in Red Flag Warning conditions for the mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties remains around 50 percent, resulting in less certainty in an upgrade to Red Flag Warning for those areas. CAZ246-253-254-201800- /O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0006.211121T1400Z-211123T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KLOX.FW.W.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T2300Z/ Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area- Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest- 215 PM PST Fri Nov 19 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a Red Flag Warning FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...Northeast to east 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph in the mountains and foothills on Sunday, with isolated gusts up to 60 mph in favored locations. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less on Monday. * Relative Humidity...Falling to 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, lowering to 8 to 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries Sunday night with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. && $$ CAZ240-241-244-245-288-547-548-201800- /O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0006.211121T1400Z-211123T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KLOX.FW.W.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T2300Z/ Ventura County Coast- Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles- Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys- Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley- Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley- 215 PM PST Fri Nov 19 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a Red Flag Warning FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...Northeast to east 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph in the valleys and coastal areas from Ventura to Malibu on Sunday. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less on Monday. * Relative Humidity...Falling to 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, lowering to 8 to 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries Sunday night with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. && $$ CAZ251-252-201800- /O.EXT.KLOX.FW.A.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T0600Z/ San Luis Obispo County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Santa Barbara County Mountains- 215 PM PST Fri Nov 19 2021 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... * Winds...East to southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 TO 40 mph. * Relative Humidity...Falling to 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, lowering to 8 to 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. poor overnight recoveries Sunday night with many wind prone areas remaining in the 15 to 30 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions MAY be favorable for rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$
6 follow-up statements
198 WWUS86 KLOX 201806 RFWLOX URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1006 AM PST Sat Nov 20 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 3 PM MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 10 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... .Northeast to east Santa Ana winds are still on track to increase late tonight into Sunday, with the peak winds expected Sunday morning and afternoon. During this peak, offshore wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph are expected across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, except isolated gusts up to 60 mph in favored mountains and foothills. In addition, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph could extend into the mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties on Sunday. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Monday morning, however wind gust speeds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph less than Sunday. Humidities are expected to fall to around 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, potentially lowering to between 8 and 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor humidity recoveries expected across most windy locations on Sunday night, generally remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. Temperatures generally look to peak between 75 and 85 degrees on Sunday and Monday. The potential for Red Flag conditions is above 80 percent for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, resulting in the Red Flag Warning for those areas. The confidence in Red Flag Warning conditions for the mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties remains around 50 percent, resulting in less certainty in an upgrade to Red Flag Warning for those areas. A final decision on this watch will be made later this afternoon. There will be an increased risk of wildfire ignitions on Sunday and Monday across the region. Areas in a Red Flag Warning will have an increased risk for fires with rapid spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior, especially considering the dry fuels in place across the region. CAZ246-253-254-210000- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T2300Z/ Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area- Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest- 1006 AM PST Sat Nov 20 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...Northeast to east 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph in the mountains and foothills on Sunday, with isolated gusts up to 60 mph in favored locations. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less on Monday. * Relative Humidity...Falling to 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, lowering to 8 to 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries Sunday night with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions will occur shortly. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. && $$ CAZ240-241-244-245-288-547-548-210000- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T2300Z/ Ventura County Coast- Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles- Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys- Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley- Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley- 1006 AM PST Sat Nov 20 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...Northeast to east 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph in the valleys and coastal areas from Ventura to Malibu on Sunday. Local gusts 50 to 60 mph expected in the foothills. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less on Monday. * Relative Humidity...Falling to 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, lowering to 8 to 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries Sunday night with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now.... or will shortly. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. && $$ CAZ251-252-210000- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T0600Z/ San Luis Obispo County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Santa Barbara County Mountains- 1006 AM PST Sat Nov 20 2021 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... * Winds...East to southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 TO 40 mph. * Relative Humidity...Falling to 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, lowering to 8 to 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. poor overnight recoveries Sunday night with many wind prone areas remaining in the 15 to 30 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions MAY be favorable for rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ Gomberg
234 WWUS86 KLOX 202158 RFWLOX URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 158 PM PST Sat Nov 20 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 3 PM MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH CANCELLED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... .Northeast to east Santa Ana winds are still on track to increase late tonight into Sunday, with the peak winds expected Sunday morning and afternoon. During this peak, offshore wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph are expected across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, except isolated gusts up to 60 mph in favored mountains and foothills. In addition, easterly wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph will impact portions of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties on Sunday and Sunday night. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Monday morning, however wind gust speeds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph less than Sunday. Humidities are expected to fall to around 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, potentially lowering to between 7 and 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor humidity recoveries expected across most windy locations on Sunday night, generally remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. Temperatures generally look to peak between 75 and 85 degrees on Sunday and Monday. The potential for Red Flag conditions is above 80 percent for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, resulting in the Red Flag Warning for those areas. Widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions are expected across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. There will be an increased risk of wildfire ignitions on Sunday and Monday across the region. Areas in a Red Flag Warning will have an increased risk for fires with rapid spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior, especially considering the dry fuels in place across the region. CAZ251-252-202300- /O.CAN.KLOX.FW.A.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T0600Z/ San Luis Obispo County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Santa Barbara County Mountains- 158 PM PST Sat Nov 20 2021 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has cancelled the Fire Weather Watch. Since the necessary duration of red flag conditions is not expected to be met, the Fire Weather Watch was cancelled. However, widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions can be expected across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties Sunday into Sunday night. East to southeast wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph will be common, strongest in the Santa Luica mountains and foothills, Carrizo Plain, and coastal canyons from Morro Bay to Cambria. $$ CAZ246-253-254-211800- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T2300Z/ Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area- Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest- 158 PM PST Sat Nov 20 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...Northeast to east 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph in the mountains and foothills on Sunday, with isolated gusts up to 60 mph in favored locations. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less on Monday. * Relative Humidity...Falling to 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, lowering to 7 to 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries Sunday night with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions will occur shortly. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity along with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. && $$ CAZ240-241-244-245-288-547-548-211800- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.211121T1700Z-211122T2300Z/ Ventura County Coast- Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles- Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys- Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley- Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley- 158 PM PST Sat Nov 20 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...Northeast to east 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph in the valleys and coastal areas from Ventura to Malibu on Sunday. Local gusts 50 to 60 mph expected in the foothills. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less on Monday. * Relative Humidity...Falling to 15 to 20 percent by mid morning Sunday, lowering to 7 to 15 percent by Sunday afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries Sunday night with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions will occur shortly. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity along with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. && $$ Gomberg
029 WWUS86 KLOX 211808 RFWLOX URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1008 AM PST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... .Santa Ana winds are peaking today across the region. Widespread wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph are expected to continue through this afternoon, with isolated gusts of 55 to 65 mph across favored mountain and foothill locations this morning. In addition, easterly wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph are expected across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties through early Monday. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into tonight and Monday morning, however wind gust speeds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph less than today. As of 10 am, humidities have fallen to between 12 and 20 percent across many locations in the Red Flag Warning area, and will potentially lower to between 7 and 15 percent by this afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor humidity recoveries are expected across most windy locations tonight, generally remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. Temperatures generally look to peak between 75 and 85 degrees today and Monday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through Monday, with elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions elsewhere. Any new fire ignitions will have an increased risk of rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior, especially considering the dry fuels in place. CAZ246-253-254-220000- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-211122T2300Z/ Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area- Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest- 1008 AM PST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...Northeast to east 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph in the mountains and foothills today, with isolated gusts up to 65 mph in favored locations this morning. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less by Monday morning. * Relative Humidity...Lowering to 7 to 15 percent this afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries tonight with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are occurring. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity along with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. && $$ CAZ240-241-244-245-288-547-548-220000- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-211122T2300Z/ Ventura County Coast- Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles- Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys- Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley- Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley- 1008 AM PST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...Northeast to east 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph today in the valleys and coastal areas from Ventura to Malibu. Local gusts 50 to 60 mph expected in the foothills. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less by Monday morning. * Relative Humidity...Lowering to 7 to 15 percent this afternoon and evening, and again on Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries tonight with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are occurring. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity along with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. && $$ Gomberg
736 WWUS86 KLOX 212250 RFWLOX URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 250 PM PST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... .Santa Ana winds have peaked today, with wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph continuing this afternoon. In addition, easterly wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph are expected across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties through early Monday, strongest tonight. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into tonight and Monday morning, however wind gust speeds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph less than today. Minimum humidities today have ranged between 7 and 15 percent, with little change into Monday. Very poor humidity recoveries are expected across most windy locations tonight, generally remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. Temperatures between 77 and 87 degrees can be expected today and Monday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through Monday, with elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions elsewhere. Any new fire ignitions will have an increased risk of rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior, especially considering the dry fuels in place. Conditions are expected to improve Monday night into Tuesday. There is increasing confidence of another round of gusty Santa Ana winds with low humidities from Wednesday through Friday. The focus of this event will once again be Los Angeles and Ventura counties, where offshore wind gusts between 30 and 50 mph can be expected, strongest on Wednesday and Thursday. In addition, there is the potential for widespread single digit humidities from late Wednesday through Friday, along with very poor overnight recoveries each night. CAZ246-253-254-221800- /O.NEW.KLOX.FW.A.0007.211124T1800Z-211127T0200Z/ /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-211122T2300Z/ Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area- Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest- 250 PM PST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a Fire Weather Watch FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect from late Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon. * Winds...Northeast to east 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph in the mountains and foothills today Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less by Monday morning. Northeast winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph on Wednesday and Thursday, then slightly weaker on Friday. * Relative Humidity...Minimum values 7 to 15 percent today and Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries tonight with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. Minimum humidities could fall as low as 5 to 12 percent by late Wednesday into Friday, with very poor recoveries each night. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are occurring now. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity along with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ240-241-244-245-288-547-548-221800- /O.NEW.KLOX.FW.A.0007.211124T1800Z-211127T0200Z/ /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-211122T2300Z/ Ventura County Coast- Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles- Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys- Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley- Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley- 250 PM PST Sun Nov 21 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a Fire Weather Watch FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect from Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon. * Winds...Northeast to east 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph today in the valleys and coastal areas from Ventura to Malibu. Wind gusts expected to be 10 to 15 mph less by Monday morning.Northeast winds are expected to increase to 15 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph on Wednesday and Thursday, then slightly weaker on Friday. * Relative Humidity...Minimum values 7 to 15 percent today and Monday. Very poor overnight recoveries tonight with many wind prone areas remaining in the 10 to 20 percent range. Minimum humidities could fall as low as 5 to 12 percent by late Wednesday into Friday, with very poor recoveries each night. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are occurring now. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity along with dry fuels can contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ Gomberg
104 WWUS86 KLOX 221758 RFWLOX URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 958 AM PST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM TODAY FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... .Gusty Santa Ana winds will linger this morning but continue to weaken through tonight. Very dry conditions will continue into the evening. The current Red Flag Warnings will remain unchanged through 3pm today, with no plans on extending them. The next Santa Ana wind event remains on target. Winds will increase on Wednesday, peak Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, then gradually weaken through Saturday. Peak wind gusts between 30 and 50 mph are expected, with isolated gusts to 60 mph. Humidities will likely lower into the 2 to 8 percent range by Thursday and Friday and poor overnight recoveries. As such, Red Flag conditions are likely for most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties Wednesday and Thanksgiving Thursday, with a chance of continuing through Friday. The current Fire Weather Watches will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings by tomorrow morning. CAZ246-253-254-230200- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-211122T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0007.211124T1800Z-211127T0200Z/ Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area- Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest- 958 AM PST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...For today, Northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph, strongest in the morning. For Wednesday through Friday, northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph, strongest Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. * Relative Humidity...For today, as low as 8 to 15 percent. For Wednesday through Friday, as low as 2 to 8 percent with very poor overnight recoveries. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are occurring now. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity along with dry fuels can contribute to rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ240-241-244-245-288-547-548-230200- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-211122T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0007.211124T1800Z-211127T0200Z/ Ventura County Coast- Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles- Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys- Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley- Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley- 958 AM PST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...For today, Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph, strongest in the morning. For Wednesday through Friday, northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph, strongest Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. * Relative Humidity...For today, as low as 6 to 15 percent. For Wednesday through Friday, as low as 2 to 8 percent with very poor overnight recoveries. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are occurring now. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity along with dry fuels can contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition sources. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ Kittell
034 WWUS86 KLOX 222248 RFWLOX URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 248 PM PST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... .The previous Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire on time, with no plans on extending. The next Santa Ana wind event remains on target. Winds will increase on Wednesday, peak Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, then gradually weaken through Saturday. Peak wind gusts between 30 and 50 mph are expected, with isolated gusts to 60 mph. Humidities will likely lower into the 2 to 8 percent range by Thursday and Friday with poor overnight recoveries. As such, Red Flag conditions are very likely for most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties Wednesday through Thanksgiving Thursday, with a chance of continuing through Friday mainly over the valleys and mountains. The current Fire Weather Watches will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings by tomorrow. CAZ246-253-254-231845- /O.EXP.KLOX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-211122T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0007.211124T1800Z-211127T0200Z/ Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area- Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest- Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest- 248 PM PST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Isolated gusts to 60 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. * Relative Humidity...As low as 2 to 8 percent. Driest Thursday and Friday. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ240-241-244-245-288-547-548-231845- /O.EXP.KLOX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-211122T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0007.211124T1800Z-211127T0200Z/ Ventura County Coast- Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles- Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys- Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley- Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley- 248 PM PST Mon Nov 22 2021 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... * Winds...Northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Isolated gusts to 55 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. * Relative Humidity...As low as 2 to 8 percent. Driest Thursday and Friday. * Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ Kittell
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Nov 19, 2:12 PM PST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 19, 2:12 PM PST, 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
212 PM PST Fri Nov 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS...19/209 PM.
A warming trend is expected for most of the forecast area on
Saturday then Santa Ana conditions will arrive for Sunday and
Monday. Gusty and dry northeast winds will result in critical fire
weather conditions in some areas. Cooler conditions are forecast
for Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak weather system moves over the
region, but offshore flow is expected to redevelop on Thanksgiving
Day.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...19/208 PM.
Fairly quiet weather in store for the area through Saturday. Mid
and high level clouds will at least create some filtered sunshine
for the remainder of the afternoon with a little thicker coverage
overnight tonight and tomorrow morning. Expect a return of low
clouds and patchy fog tonight and early tomorrow morning along
the coastal zones and some nearby valleys, also extending into the
SLO Co interior. Mid level west to northwest flow increases
tonight in advance of a weak trough that passes through tomorrow
morning. This will produce some breezy conditions over the
western side of the SB Co south coast tonight and over to the I5
corridor, but nothing too strong. Saturday will see a gradual
switch to offshore flow by the evening which will help to warm the
coastal and nearby valley zones tomorrow, but expect cooler
conditions further inland due to the week trough passage.
Another trough passes from our northwest on Sunday night while
surface high pressure builds over the western Great Basin. This
will increase the offshore pressure gradients and start a 24 to 30
hour period of moderate to isolated strong Santa Ana winds
through parts of Ventura and LA Counties. The LAX to DAG pressure
gradients will likely drop to between -7 and -8 mb on Sunday
morning. The EPS ensemble and GEFS have been consistent the last
few days with peak northeast wind gusts for this event. The local
high res model is also showing fairly strong northeast winds
peaking around 15Z on Sunday. Wind gusts are expected to be
between 35 and 55 mph with isolated 60 mph values in the more wind
prone areas. Wouldn't be surprised to see 60 plus gusts reported
at the Wiley Ridge RAWS. The gusty northeast winds will also be
common through the SBA Co mountains and north into the Santa
Lucias, but not as strong as through the Santa Ana areas. Wind
speeds will sustain through Sunday and Sunday evening with only
slight weakening, then pick up again slightly on Sunday night.
Offshore gradients change little by Monday morning, however the
upper level flow pattern becomes less favorable for gusty
northeast winds as a closed upper low about 500 miles offshore
SoCal opens up and moves northeast to produce southwest flow aloft
Monday morning and through the day. This upper flow also pulls
quite a bit of mid and high level moisture from the tropics to
make for a pretty cloudy day on Monday. The northeast winds
therefore weaken through the afternoon and coastal areas will get
a weak sea breeze by later in the afternoon.
This shouldn't be a very warm Santa Ana event, especially compared
to what we've experienced with the last few Santa Ana events when
we had highs in the 90s in some locations. This is mainly due to
the cooler low level temperatures off the surface and also
hindered by the cloudiness expected on Monday. Seeing the usual
tendencies between the EPS ensemble, the GEFS, and the NBM as far
as temperatures for Sunday and Monday. The EPS is typically the
warmer of the group and it's holding form with this event. All
three are indicating highs in the upper 70s to around 80 across
the coastal and valley areas, coolest in the the areas with the
strongest northeast winds such as through the Ventura Co coast.
The EPS has the warmest temperatures in the inland LA basin, which
seems reasonable given the absence of any northeast winds there.
The official forecast moderates the max temperatures a bit over
guidance, but stay under the 85 degree mark on Sunday and will
cool a few degrees on Monday.
Onshore flow returns on Tuesday in advance of another trough
passage to cool temperatures quite a bit and bring a return of
the overnight and early morning coastal stratus late Monday night
early Tuesday morning.
See the fire weather discussion below for a more detailed
description of the fire weather threat with this event.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...19/209 PM.
Models have been showing a deeper upper low moving through the
northwest flow across California later on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Earlier runs, including the ensembles, produced some very
light measurable precipitation over areas of LA and Ventura
Counties, however the more recent runs have backed away from that
idea. In fact, only three members of the 12Z EPS have anything
measurable while the latest GEFS only has just a few more members
with measurable precipitation. Meanwhile the NBM is even less
interested in producing any measurable precip. The best chance,
although not much, is Tuesday night and coinciding with the
expected timing of the trough passage. Left the Tuesday night
forecat as is and have removed any mention of precipitation in
the forecast for Wednesday. Wednesday will be a little cooler than
Tuesday despite the fact the strength of the onshore flow will be
less.
Tuesday night's trough will leave another building surface high
over the western Great Basin that will bring a return to offshore
pressure gradients developing on Thursday. Both the EPS and the
GEFS show the peak of the northeast winds around midday on
Thursday, but these wind speeds will be about half of those
coming up on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will warm up on
Thursday and Friday with 70s to near 80 for the coastal zones and
nearby valleys.
&&
.AVIATION...19/1754Z.
At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2400 feet with a temperature of 18C.
Expect skies to clear by mid to late morning in the valleys, and
around noon near the coast. There is a 30% chance that cigs could
linger near KLAX/KSMO into the afternoon. Expect widespread low
clouds in most coastal and lower valley areas tonight, with IFR
conds expected, except low MVFR conds in coastal sections of L.A.
County. There is a chance that skies will remain clear at KSBA
tonight, and skies are expected to remain clear at KSBP due to
some low level NE flow.
KLAX...Low confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance
that cigs could linger through 22Z. There is a 20-30% chance that
cigs tonight will be in the IFR category.
KBUR...Low confidence in the 18Z TAF. High confidence in low
clouds returning but low confidence in timing. There is a 30%
chance of VLIFR conditions after 10z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...19/112 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence that winds will
reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels this afternoon and
persist thru late tonight. There is a 30% chance of SCA level
winds again Sat into Sat night, mainly in the northern two zones
(PZZ670/673). There is a 30% chance of SCA level NE winds across
portions of the southern zone (PZZ676) Sun. Otherwise, SCA conds
are not expected Sun thru Mon. There is a 40% chance of SCA level
NW winds Tue.
For the Inner Waters north of Pt, Sal, moderate confidence in
the forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA level NW winds this
afternoon/evening, There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level NE winds
near shore late Sat night/Sun morning. There is a 40% chance of
SCA level NW winds Tue.
For the Inner Waters south of Pt Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA
level NW winds across western portions of the SBA Channel this
evening. On Sun, and again late Sun night and Mon morning,
SCA level NE winds are likely from the eastern Santa Barbara
Channel south to Santa Monica. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA
level northeast winds affecting Avalon Harbor. Otherwise, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...19/921 AM.
A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect as an outlook to highlight
the potential for Red Flag Warning conditions Sunday and Monday.
A decision on whether a Red Flag Warning will be issued will be
made later today or Saturday.
Northeast to east Santa Ana winds are still on track to increase late
Saturday Night into Sunday, with the peak winds expected Sunday morning
and afternoon. During this peak, offshore wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph
are expected across wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph extending into the mountains
of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Gusty Santa Ana
winds are expected to continue into Monday morning, however wind
speeds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph less than Sunday. Humidities
are expected to start out between 15 and 25 percent early Sunday
morning, potentially lowering to between 6 and 15 percent by
Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures generally look to peak
between 75 and 85. The potential for Red Flag conditions is still
around 80 percent for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. The
confidence in Red Flag Warning conditions for the mountains of
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties remains around 50
percent, resulting in less certainty in an upgrade to Red Flag
Warning for those areas.
Conditions are expected to improve Monday night into Tuesday. There is
the potential for a return of gusty and dry offshore flow Wednesday
through Friday, including Thanksgiving day.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Red Flag Warning in effect from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST
Monday for zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Sunday evening for zones 251-252. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).
Santa Ana conditions bringing critical fire weather conditions are
expected for much of Monday. A weaker Santa Ana event is possible
on Thanksgiving Day.
&&
PUBLIC...Jackson
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DB/MW
FIRE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Jackson
weather.gov/losangelesThe office that day
Everything else NWS Los Angeles, CA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 1:40 AM PST | Dense Fog Advisory | LOX | Los Angeles | 7 hr |
| Nov 19, 2:55 AM PST | Small Craft Advisory | LOX | 30 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in California, 2021Every red flag warning in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.