Gale Warning 12, NWS Chicago, IL

744 
WHUS73 KLOT 271449
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
949 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

LMZ740>742-272300-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-210527T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0012.210527T2100Z-210529T0000Z/
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
949 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds to 30 kt 
  with significant waves to 7 feet and occasional waves to 9 
  feet expected. For the Gale Warning, northeasterly gales to 40 
  kt with significant waves to 12 feet and occasional waves to 
  16 feet expected.

* WHERE...Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL, Wilmette Harbor 
  to Northerly Island IL and Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor 
  IL.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM CDT this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 
  PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and hazardous waves may capsize or 
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ743>745-272300-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-210528T0200Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.A.0007.210528T0200Z-210529T0000Z/
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
949 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds of 15 to 25
  kt with significant waves to 6 feet and occasional waves to 8 
  feet. For the Gale Watch, northeasterly gales to 35 kt with 
  significant waves to 10 feet and occasional waves to 13 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...Gary to Burns Harbor IN, Burns Harbor to Michigan City 
  IN and Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 9 PM CDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from this evening through Friday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and hazardous waves may capsize or 
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

709 
WHUS73 KLOT 271959
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
259 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

LMZ740>742-280400-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-210527T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0012.210527T2100Z-210529T0000Z/
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
259 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds to 30 kt 
  with significant waves to 7 feet and occasional waves to 9 
  feet expected. For the Gale Warning, northeasterly gales to 40 
  kt with significant waves to 12 feet and occasional waves to 
  16 feet expected.

* WHERE...Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL, Wilmette Harbor 
  to Northerly Island IL and Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor 
  IL.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM CDT this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 
  PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and hazardous waves may capsize or 
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ743>745-280400-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-210528T0200Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.A.0007.210528T0200Z-210529T0000Z/
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
259 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds of 15 to 
  25 kt with significant waves to 6 feet and occasional waves to 
  8 feet. For the Gale Watch, northeasterly gales to 35 kt with 
  significant waves to 10 feet and occasional waves to 13 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...Gary to Burns Harbor IN, Burns Harbor to Michigan City 
  IN and Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 9 PM CDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from this evening through Friday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and hazardous waves may capsize or 
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

767 
WHUS73 KLOT 272050 CCA
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Chicago IL
350 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

LMZ740>742-280400-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-210527T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0012.210527T2100Z-210529T0000Z/
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
350 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds to 30 kt 
  with significant waves to 7 feet and occasional waves to 9 
  feet expected. For the Gale Warning, northeasterly gales to 40 
  kt with significant waves to 12 feet and occasional waves to 
  16 feet expected.

* WHERE...Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL, Wilmette Harbor 
  to Northerly Island IL and Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor 
  IL.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM CDT this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 
  PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and hazardous waves may capsize or 
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ743>745-280400-
/O.COR.KLOT.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-210528T0200Z/
/O.COR.KLOT.GL.A.0007.210528T0200Z-210529T0000Z/
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
350 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING 
THROUGH 9 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds of 15 to 
  25 kt with significant waves to 6 feet and occasional waves to 
  8 feet. For the Gale Watch, northeasterly gales to 35 kt with 
  significant waves to 10 feet and occasional waves to 13 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...Gary to Burns Harbor IN, Burns Harbor to Michigan City 
  IN and Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 AM CDT Friday
  morning. For the Gale Watch, from 10 AM CDT Friday morning 
  through 9 PM CDT Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and hazardous waves may capsize or 
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

949 
WHUS73 KLOT 280252
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
952 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

LMZ740>742-281100-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210529T0000Z/
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
952 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeasterly gales to 35 kt with significant waves to 11
  feet and occasional waves to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL, Winthrop Harbor 
  to Wilmette Harbor IL and Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island 
  IL.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ743>745-281100-
/O.UPG.KLOT.GL.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210529T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.SC.Y.0047.210528T0252Z-210528T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.GL.A.0008.210528T1500Z-210529T0200Z/
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
952 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds to 25 kt.
  Significant waves to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft late. For the
  Gale Watch, northeast gales to 35 kt possible. Significant waves
  to 10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft.

* WHERE...Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN, Gary to Burns Harbor IN 
  and Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 AM CDT Friday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Friday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

Carlaw

865 
WHUS73 KLOT 280817
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
317 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

LMZ743>745-281630-
/O.EXT.KLOT.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-210530T0300Z/
/O.CAN.KLOT.GL.A.0008.210528T1500Z-210529T0200Z/
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
317 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 30 kt. A few gale force gusts to 35 kt
  this afternoon. Significant waves to 10 feet and occasional 
  waves to 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...Indiana nearshore waters.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ740>742-281630-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210529T0000Z/
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
317 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast gales to 35 kt with significant waves to 11 
  feet and occasional waves to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...Illinois nearshore waters.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

743 
WHUS73 KLOT 281436
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
936 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

LMZ740>742-282245-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210529T0000Z/
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
936 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast gales to 35 kt with significant waves to 11 
  feet and occasional waves to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...Illinois nearshore waters.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ743>745-282245-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-210530T0300Z/
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
936 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 30 kt. A few gale force gusts to 35 
  kt this afternoon. Significant waves to 10 feet and occasional 
  waves to 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...Indiana nearshore waters.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

306 
WHUS73 KLOT 281923
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
223 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

LMZ740>742-290000-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210529T0000Z/
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
223 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast gales to 35 kt with significant waves to 11 
  feet and occasional waves to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...Illinois nearshore waters.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ743>745-290330-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-210530T0300Z/
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
223 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 30 kt. A few gale force gusts to 35 
  kt this afternoon. Significant waves to 10 feet and occasional 
  waves to 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...Indiana nearshore waters.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

043 
WHUS73 KLOT 282008
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
308 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

LMZ740>742-290000-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210529T0000Z/
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
308 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Gale force winds to 35 kt through early evening, becoming
  northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 7 to 
  10 ft.

* WHERE...Illinois nearshore waters.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ743>745-290415-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-210530T0300Z/
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
308 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 5 to 8 ft.

* WHERE...Indiana nearshore waters.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
342 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...
342 AM CDT

Through Friday...

Plenty to focus on through the near term period, as a deepening mid-
level short wave and associated surface low transit the area through
Friday. Sensible weather impacts will include a period of gusty
northeast winds, rain/thunderstorm trends and potentially locally
heavy rainfall later today/tonight with some potential for severe
thunderstorms across the southern part of the cwa, and a sharp
temperature discontinuity from north to south across the forecast
area.

Early morning surface analysis shows an area of baggy low pressure
across western Kansas and southern Nebraska. This low is progged to
consolidate across the mid-Missouri Valley this morning in response
to a mid-level short wave, then track east-southeast across Iowa
this afternoon and into central IL tonight. Relatively strong
forcing for mid-May is expected to develop, in part due to strong
upper level divergence in the right entrance region to an upper
level jet streak over Ontario and the northern Lakes, and the
development of a compact closed mid-level wave which will propagate
from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes region through Friday.
As the surface low deepens later today, the low level wind field
will strengthen, resulting northward advancement and tightening of
the thermal gradient associated with the warm front. Models continue
to indicate some differences with the exact placement of the warm
front and surface low track later today and tonight, though a
consensus would indicate a path across the southern tier of WFO
LOT's cwa counties. The warm sector may be muddied somewhat by the
east-southeastward propagation of an MCS currently across KS and
western MO, especially with respect to better low level instability
which may be repressed farther south across downstate IL. The
presence of the synoptic warm front, sharpened by cool northeast
flow off the western Lakes north of the boundary, suggests at least
some marginal potential for severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening across our southern cwa. Deep layer shear of
40+ kts may support some storm organization, with low level shear in
the vicinity of the warm front itself worthy of monitoring for
wind/brief tornado threat. Thunder threat looks to exist north of
the warm front late this afternoon and evening as well, with 40-50
kt H8 southerly winds providing some elevated CAPE above the warm
frontal inversion, though surface-based instability will decrease
rapidly north of the boundary. Some storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall amounts as well, with p-wats in excess of 1.50" this
evening into the early overnight hours.

By Friday morning, the surface low will be pulling away to the east,
and the main mid-level short wave will propagate across the region
during the day. While the stronger forcing and deeper moisture will
be east of the area, showers are likely to persist through the day.
Gusty northeast winds will develop later today and tonight northeast
of the low track, and these winds in excess of 30 mph at times will
persist tonight through Friday. This will limit temps across far
northern IL to the upper 50s/low 60s today (with only mid-50s near
Lake Michigan), while areas along/south of the warm front may tag
80. Temperatures will only reach the low to mid 50s for most areas
Friday. This will make for a raw feel with the showers and gusty
winds. While certainly not beach weather, the strong winds and high
waves on southern Lake Michigan will continue to warrant beach
hazard statements.

Ratzer

&&

.LONG TERM...
342 AM CDT

Friday night through Wednesday...

After a decidedly wet and blustery Friday, showers and clouds will
taper from west to east Friday night. Depending on how fast clouds
clear, a cold resident airmass and decreasing low-level moisture may
support overnight lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s, coldest
northwest of a line from Dixon to Genoa to McHenry. In fact, we
can't rule out patchy frost in valleys and low-lying spots,
particularly north and west of Rockford.

Otherwise, Saturday through the holiday weekend look splendid with
warming temperatures, light winds, and mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies. Highs Saturday will top off in the mid to upper 60s followed
by the low to mid 70s Sunday and Monday. Of course, daily lake
breezes will hold lakeshore locations some 5-10 degrees cooler each
afternoon. The gradual warming trend will continue into the workweek
with highs in the mid to upper 70s and continued light winds.
Ensemble model guidance suggests the next chance for precipitation
may arrive sometime in the middle of next week, though a signal for
a widespread precipitation event is weak.

Borchardt

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

The primary forecast concerns through the TAF period are as follows:

* Increasingly breezy east to northeast winds with gusts of 20-30
  kt, highest toward the end of the TAF period

* Showers with embedded thunderstorms spreading over the local
  airspace from west to east this evening with showers prevailing
  thereafter

* Gradually lowering cigs with high confidence in MVFR toward the
  end of the TAF period, and low confidence in IFR.

As a convectively-invigorated low pressure continues deepening on a
track toward the middle Mississippi River Valley this morning, east
to northeast winds at all terminals will steadily increase with
gusts close to 20 kt becoming apparent toward daybreak. Winds will
continue gradually increasing during daylight hours with gusts in
the upper 20 kt range toward sunset. Gusts will then begin to clip
30 kt toward the end of the TAF period. While confidence is high
that wind speeds and gusts will trend upward through the duration of
the TAF period at all terminals, a warm front this evening may
attempt to lift as far north as GYY lowering confidence in wind
speed and direction after 00Z. For now, have introduced VRB10KT with
the expectation that refinements will come in later TAF packages.

Meanwhile, showers and embedded thunderstorms currently over the
Central Plains will continue moving east overnight and approach the
Mississippi River toward daybreak in a weakening form. Confidence is
low on exactly how the convective complex will behave, but the
outgoing TAF package is heavily based on the past iterations of the
ECMWF, in which at least some regeneration may occur by early
afternoon while going over most terminals. (Note - we will have to
keep an eye on the potential for a wake low to locally augment
wind speeds and gusts as the remnant complex moves through the
terminals this afternoon). All things considered, shifted the
onset of showers back by a few hours--now starting near 21Z at the
Chicago terminals. With instability in the neighborhood (whether
surface-based or elevated), a non- zero chance for thunder will
exist mainly in the 00-04Z time window. Widely scattered showers
are then expected from 04Z to the end of the TAF period (and
beyond).

Finally, ceilings will gradually lower as the TAF period progresses,
with high confidence in VFR bases through 18Z today. Thereafter,
cigs will drop toward MVFR as showers move over the terminals, and
potentially below 2000 feet by 04Z. With cool flow off Lake Michigan
and increasing low-level moisture transport from the south, cloud
bases to slip below 1000 feet particularly toward the end of the
TAF period.

Borchardt

&&

.MARINE...
219 PM CDT

The Gale Watch continues for the nearshore waters of Illinois and
Indiana, with highest confidence in this occurring for the
Illinois waters late Thursday night and Friday.

As a deepening low pressure system tracks from the Iowa/Missouri
border to northern/central Illinois and Indiana from Thursday
night into Friday, east to northeasterly winds will increase
across southern Lake Michigan. At least occasional gales are
likely to develop over southern Lake Michigan as early as
Thursday evening, but most likely during the daytime Friday. A
long fetch over Lake Michigan combined with strong sustained winds
will also lead to building waves along the shoreline, with peak
heights above 8 feet probable throughout Friday into Friday
evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue beyond the
gale for Saturday.

MTF/Borchardt

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Beach Hazards Statement...ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104 until 7 PM Friday.

IN...Beach Hazards Statement...INZ001-INZ002 until 7 PM Thursday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...4 PM Thursday to 7 PM
     Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 4 PM Thursday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...9 PM Thursday to 7 PM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 9 PM Thursday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
400 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-272100-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
400 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 /500 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  High Swim Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Gusty northeast winds will build waves late tonight and cause
dangerous conditions for anyone caught in the lake. A Beach
Hazards Statement for rip currents may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday...
  Limited Severe Thunderstorm Risk mainly south of I-80.
  Limited Flooding Risk.
  Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
  Limited Lakeshore Flood Risk.
  High Swim Risk.
Friday...
  Limited Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
  Elevated Lakeshore Flood Risk.
  High Swim Risk.
Saturday...
  Limited Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
  High Swim Risk.

DISCUSSION:

An area of low pressure will bring strong and gusty northeast
winds in excess of 30 mph to the region Thursday through Friday
along with periods of rain and some threat for thunderstorms. The
main area for storms will be near and south of I-80 on Thursday
afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong to severe with
a threat for damaging winds and small hail, south of I-80,
although confidence in severe weather is relatively low.

A long duration of gusty northeast winds and high waves will
cause dangerous conditions for anyone caught in the lake through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

LMZ740>745-272100-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
400 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Hazardous conditions for small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday...
  Gale force winds and or very hazardous waves are likely.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Friday...
  Gale force winds and or very hazardous waves are likely.
Saturday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

Carlaw

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