Frost Advisory 1, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
246 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Latest sfc analysis shows the expansive 1032mb high off to our
east/southeast, which is influencing return SW flow. Some regional
obs have reported wind gusts of 15-20mph, primarily due to a
tightened pressure gradient caused in response to a weak mid-level
disturbance near the Great Lakes region. Wind gusts should ease by
this evening, but sfc winds will continue to be from the SW as the
sfc high remains anchored over the southeast CONUS.

WAA on the back side of the high should help keep temps for tonight
much closer to climo than in the last few mornings. Lows are
expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s. As for tomorrow's high
temps, NBM is near the 50th percentile of guidance output, but given
persistent warm SW flow and sunny skies, decided to bump temps up to
the 75th percentile with a blend of bias-corrected guidance.
Additionally, given the challenges with dewpoints and RH values
today, blended sfc dewpoints between the 10-25 percentile of the
guidance spectrum for tomorrow in hopes of having a good handle on
relative humidities for tomorrow. Overall, a gorgeous Sunday across
the region is expected as temps reach the upper 60s to low 70s with
plenty of sunshine.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Mild and dry weather will continue Monday and at least most of
Tuesday under SW return flow. A weak wave crossing the Great Lakes
Tuesday afternoon will spark a few showers, but expect that to
remain far enough north that POPs are not mentionable here.

Confidence is quite limited Tue night and Wed as a closed upper low
deepens over the Plains, with an amplifying ridge in the Ohio
Valley, but a quasi-stationary sfc front lingering not too far to
our north and east. POPs ramp up during the day, but far and away
the best chance for showers and storms will be Wednesday night and
Thursday. The finer details are still unclear, but it is a
sufficiently dynamic system that we could have a few strong storms
if instability can be drawn this far north. Fri-Sat will bring a
drying trend but continued mild temps under quasi-zonal flow.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021

IMPACTS:  VFR Conditions.

DISCUSSION: Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure from
Georgia/Alabama stretching to Virginia/West Virginia. Other than
some high-altitude cirrus, skies remain clear across the region.
Winds are southwest, and should get a bit breezy for this afternoon
due to a tightened pressure gradient. Gusts should remain limited to
the 15-20kt range. We will remain VFR through the entire TAF period.

CONFIDENCE: High confidence on all forecast elements.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...CJP
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...CJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1122 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041530-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
1122 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 /1022 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CJP