Alert archive / Louisiana / Small Craft Advisories in 2021
Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS New Orleans, LA
NWS New Orleans, LA issued this small craft advisory at Dec 10, 2021, 3:00 PM CST. It took effect at Dec 11, 2021, 3:00 PM CST. It was in force for 17 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 10, 2021, 3:00 PM CST (21:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 11, 2021, 3:00 PM CST
- Expired
- Dec 12, 2021, 8:00 AM CST
- In force
- 17 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New Orleans, LA
The text
As transmitted.
058 WHUS74 KLIX 102100 MWWLIX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New Orleans LA 300 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-110500- /O.NEW.KLIX.MF.Y.0030.211211T0000Z-211211T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211212T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Mississippi Sound-Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound- Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM- 300 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico, all the Sounds, and Lake Borgne. * WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low visibility will make navigation difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use your radar and compass. && $$ GMZ530-550-552-570-572-575-577-110500- /O.NEW.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211212T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas- Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM- 300 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...From 6 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
6 follow-up statements
808 WHUS74 KLIX 110346 MWWLIX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New Orleans LA 946 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-111200- /O.CON.KLIX.MF.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-211211T1500Z/ /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211212T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Mississippi Sound-Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound- Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM- 946 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico, all the Sounds, and Lake Borgne. * WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low visibility will make navigation difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use your radar and compass. && $$ GMZ530-550-552-570-572-575-577-111200- /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211212T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas- Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM- 946 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...From 6 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
587 WHUS74 KLIX 110921 MWWLIX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New Orleans LA 321 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 GMZ530-111730- /O.EXA.KLIX.MF.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-211211T1500Z/ /O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211211T2100Z-211212T1400Z/ Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas- 321 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce visibility to 1 NM or lower. For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt expected. * WHERE...Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. * WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 9 AM CST this morning. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low visibility will make navigation difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use your radar and compass. && $$ GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-111730- /O.CON.KLIX.MF.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-211211T1500Z/ /O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211211T2100Z-211212T1400Z/ Mississippi Sound-Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound- Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM- 321 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico, all the Sounds, and Lake Borgne. * WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 9 AM CST this morning. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low visibility will make navigation difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use your radar and compass. && $$ GMZ550-552-111730- /O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211211T2100Z-211212T1400Z/ Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM- 321 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ GMZ570-572-575-577-111730- /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211212T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM- 321 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...From 6 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
450 WHUS74 KLIX 111436 MWWLIX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New Orleans LA 836 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-112245- /O.CAN.KLIX.MF.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-211211T1500Z/ /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211211T2100Z-211212T1400Z/ Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound- Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound- Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM- 836 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ GMZ550-552-112245- /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211211T2100Z-211212T1400Z/ Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM- 836 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ GMZ570-572-575-577-112245- /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211212T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM- 836 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...From 6 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
545 WHUS74 KLIX 112137 MWWLIX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New Orleans LA 337 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-120545- /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound- Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound- Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM- Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM- 337 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...Until 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ GMZ570-572-575-577-120545- /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.211212T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM- 337 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected. * WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. * WHEN...Until 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
602 WHUS74 KLIX 120244 MWWLIX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New Orleans LA 844 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-121045- /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound- Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound- Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM- Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM- 844 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. * WHERE...All of the tidal lakes, sounds, and open Gulf waters. * WHEN...Until 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ PG
831 WHUS74 KLIX 120946 MWWLIX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New Orleans LA 346 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021 GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-121400- /O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-211212T1400Z/ Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound- Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound- Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM- Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM- 346 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. * WHERE...All of the tidal lakes, sounds, and open Gulf waters. * WHEN...Until 8 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 10, 4:54 AM CST, 10 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 10, 4:54 AM CST, 10 hours 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
454 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
.SHORT TERM...It has generally been quiet overnight with the
main impacts on aviation and travelers due to low clouds and fog.
Rain basically departed the region late last evening with only a few
isolated sprinkles across the region after midnight. Additional very
isolated showers will still be possible through the morning.
Again most of the forecast focus is in the short term and especially
in the next 36-48 hrs as we will see a potent system move across the
central CONUS bringing a bout of severe weather to much of Lower MS
Valley and portions of the Mid MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys starting
late this evening likely in AR and surging east across TN and nrn
MS/AL quickly through the overnight and early morning hours. More
on that later.
As for today, once again it will feel more like October than
December and actually it could feel slightly worse as we will be
quite humid. Dewpoints are already in the lower 70s across almost
the entire CWA with mid 70s just off the coast of LA. Just to put
this in perspective, the average morning low at BTR is 44 and at MSY
is 49. So much of the area could see morning lows this morning
around 20-25 degrees abv normal. This will absolutely set the stage
for record highs to be broken and unless we remain overcast, see
winds greatly increase abv what we are currently forecasting, or
rain develops that is not anticipated we will easily warm into the
upper 70s and lower 80s while isolated locations very well could
touch mid 80s this afternoon. H925 temps will range from 18-19C and
this mixed down to the sfc is around 27/28C which is 79-82. Given
the likelihood of many places starting off around 69-71 this
morning, we see no reason temperatures will not climb 10-15 degrees
today. With that we are forecasting widespread 79-83 temps today
which will tie or exceed just about every site's record high for
today. Climate section will show more on that.
As for tonight and tomorrow, the concern is strong to severe
weather. There is still a lot that suggest we could see a few severe
storms but history says with this setup the squall line/cold front
will struggle as it gets down here.
The current setup we have is the ridge over the Gulf this morning, a
deepening L/W trough west of the Continental Divide, and a leading
s/w now lifting northeast out of Mexico and into NM and TX. This s/w
will likely be the catalyst to get things going across the central
portions of the CONUS. It will become embedded in the deepening L/W
trough and should lift across the upper portions of the Lower MS
Valley and Mid MS Valley late this afternoon and evening. As it
moves northeast across the southern Plains it will aid in developing
and deepening a sfc low over the central Plains today. We are
already seeing Lee side cyclogenesis and this low will deepen
considerably over the next 24 hours. In addition as the leading s/w
becomes embedded in the deeper flow it will aid in enhancing the mid
lvl winds with a rather potent mid lvl jet moving across the Ozarks
and into the Mid MS Valley. Already that is quite far north from our
region, and an additional s/w will work east across the northern and
central Plains enhancing the mid level winds even more but again
that will be over the Ozarks and Mid MS Valley tonight, well
displaced to the north.
The L/W trough will continue to lag back neutrally if not slightly
positively tilted. At the same time the ridge in the Gulf will begin
to amplify across the eastern GOM and FL. This will keep the region
in broad WSW to SW flow aloft with mid lvl hghts only slight falling
tonight and tomorrow morning. Mid lvl hghts don't drop until just
after the cold front moves into the region and behind it tomorrow
morning and through the day while the L/W trough axis continues to
lag back to the southwest finally moving through overnight Saturday.
That is not typical for our severe weather events. Other aspects
that continue to be pessimistic for severe weather will be the
position and development of the LL jet tonight. There was a trend
slightly south and west with the development of the LL jet but it
still puts our region on the tail end of it and that just promotes
LL divergence. We have already mentioned how the mid level jet will
be well displaced to the north. Even though h5 winds could be in the
50-60 kt range they will be that strong over the entire area all
night long and through the day tomorrow. This would suggest broad
lift across the region with no real punch catalyst to spark
additional develops. In fact the line of storms will be sliding
southeast with mid lvl flow/lift decreasing through the morning.
Upper lvl jet placement will actually be favorable. Diffluence aloft
will not be overly impressive but we will have decent diffluence
aloft in place.
The one aspect that is quite concerning about this is the
thermodynamic field. At first glance it looks like we have quite a
bit of instability to work with. Heck its December and we are
dealing with 70 degree dewpoints, that alone should be quite
concerning when combining a cold front and lift aloft. But again we
have pointed out the likelihood of LL divergence and very broad
large scale lift. The other interesting thing is once you get past
the eye popping SFC lvl CAPE and LI's its not quite as impressive
thermodynamically. Forecast soundings actually show quite the dry
airmass between h850 and over h5(even up to h35 the farther east you
go). Not just a dry layer but the entire column in that region is
very dry. With that if you look at the showalters index depending on
the model we range from -1.5 to 1. This would suggest very limited
instability in place once you get off the deck.
Given the potency of the system and again dewpoints in the 70s "IN
DECEMBER" (that probably worries me the most) everything else just
suggest a rather underwhelming system and it could be underwhelming
north of our area as there appears to be timing issues. Now that
said we will without a doubt see showers and thunderstorms and very
good chance of a few strong storms likely between 10-18z Saturday
with the best chance for strong to severe storms appears to be along
and northwest of a line from just near the Baton Rouge metro to
Tylertown, MS. The line will become more broken and weaker the
farther it slides southeast but everyone should see some rain
through the the day and thus have upper PoPs to 80-100% across most
of the area.
As mentioned earlier the L/W trough will axis will not push
completely through until early Sunday so until then we will remain
in southwest flow with broad lift in place. Even though the cold
front should be in the coastal waters by Saturday afternoon we will
not see the airmass dry out until late Saturday night. This would
suggest that light showers and sprinkles could be possible through
the evening with rain finally ending overnight.
High pressure builds in across the southeastern CONUS Sunday with
what should be a pleasant cool day. H925 temps will be back down to
12-13C leading to highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Sunday
morning will be much cooler as moderate cold air advection occurs
through the night but don't get to excited as this airmass is
extremely shallow as H85 temps will only fall from 15C today to to
12 early Sunday. The more optimal aspect will be much drier
dewpoints which will allow lows Monday to be slightly below normal
but again don't get to excited as this will be very short lived as
we heat up again next week with additional record highs possibly
being test Tuesday through Thursday. /CAB/
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Weather impacts throughout the long term still looks to be quite
with upper level ridging generally dominating this portion of the
forecast period. The ridge will be centered near the northern Gulf
Coast and expanding across a large majority of the CONUS. Easterly
flow across the Bahamas and northern Caribbean at this time will
undercut the southern portion of the ridge. As time progresses
through the week and the ridge slides eastward, moisture associated
with that easterly flow will get drawn northward across the
northwest Gulf. A few showers may pass across the coastal waters mid
week and some could nudge into western and southwestern portions of
the CWA late in the week. Meanwhile, increased 500mb heights will
support temperatures well above normal with lows around 60 and highs
in the mid to upper 70s. Not record breaking but a solid 10 degrees
above climo for this time of year. /MEFFER/
&&
.MARINE...Moderate onshore flow is already in place and even
strengthening with the fetch all the way back towards the Yucatan
Channel. This will remain in place for atleast another 24 hours and
possibly longer until the cold front finally moves through tomorrow.
This will likely get a swell going and could lead to seas of 5-7
feet in the open waters. Winds may no quite be strong enough to
warrant a SCY for today or tonight but likely tomorrow and
especially behind the front late tomorrow and tomorrow night. That
said seas could be a bigger concern initially and especially right
along and immediately behind the cold front. The winds strong winds
will be brief as they will not be dictated by cold air advection as
they normally are behind cold fronts but more so strong sfc pressure
rises behind the front. Because of that the winds will likely only
be at advisory strength late Saturday afternoon and through the
night. However, with a possible swell developing and coming out of
the SSE, immediately following cold front the strong winds will be
opposing the swells and this could create dangerous waves or a
phenomena known as confused seas. That will likely only persist for
about 3-6 hours as the swells will weaken and break down eventually.
High pressure will build in overnight Saturday and dominate the
region Sunday and sliding east Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF Package...initially this morning the biggest
concern will be cigs. all terminals are currently dealing with low
cigs but the two larger terminals are only down to MVFR with cigs
around 1100-1500ft. Elsewhere we have cigs down to as low as 300ft.
Vsbys are also being reduced at some terminals thanks to fog. The
greatest impact from fog is over coastal MS at this time. All
conditions should slowly improve through the morning with most if
not all terminals at least in MVFR status if not VFR status by 18z.
Low clouds could hang around much of the day but should at least be
broken and not overcast. /CAB/
&&
.CLIMATE...It is looking rather likely that we will see records
today, both record high mins this morning and record maxes this
afternoon. Here is a quick list of the record high Lows and record
highs along with normals.
Location: High Low(year) Record High(year) Normals
(H/L)
BTR 68(2007) 82(2007) 65/44
MSY 68(1961) 81(2007) 66/49
ASD 68(2007) 79(2015) 65/43
MCB 65(2007) 79(2007) 63/41
GPT 65(2007) 76(2007) 64/45
PQL 60(2007) 79(2007) 66/44
Forecast high for the following sites
BTR 83
MSY 82
ASD 83
MCB 82
GPT 78
PQL 79
We shall see how warm we stay this morning and how warm we
eventually get today but one thing is clear, it is darn warm and
humid out there. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 66 73 39 / 20 40 100 20
BTR 83 66 75 41 / 20 30 100 10
ASD 85 68 78 44 / 20 20 90 20
MSY 82 70 79 50 / 10 10 90 20
GPT 78 66 76 46 / 20 10 90 30
PQL 79 67 77 45 / 10 10 90 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ059-061-
063>070-075>078.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ080>082.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
&&In the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 10, 11:28 AM CST, 3 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW METAIRIE 30.02N 90.19W
12/09/2021 JEFFERSON LA NWS STORM SURVEY
AN NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT
THE DAMAGE IN METAIRIE, LA WAS CAUSED BY
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THERE WERE TWO AREAS OF
DAMAGE SURVEYED. ONE WAS ON CLEARVIEW PKWAY
AND ONE ON HARING ROAD. THE FIRST AREA HAD
ONE HOME WITH SHINGLE DAMAGE, A DAMAGED
CARPORT AND A FRONT PILLAR SHIFTED OFF THE
PORCH. TWO NEIGHBORING HOUSES HAD ABOUT 5-10
FEET OF SHINGLE/AWNING DAMAGE. SURROUNDING
THESE HOUSES, THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO LEAF OR
TREE DEBRIS, NO OTHER STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS
NOTED, CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS WERE NOT MOVED
AND THE TARPED ROOFS WERE NOT TOUCHED. IN
THE SECOND LOCATION, ONLY ONE HOUSE HAD A
FEW FEET OF SIDING DAMAGE AND MANY OF THE
CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS WERE NOT MOVED WHILE A
FEW WERE. THERE WAS SOME LEAF DEBRIS NOTED
IN THIS AREA. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THESE AREAS DID SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD
MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE IDA.
IN SUMMARY, DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED DAMAGE
AND THE RELATED COMPLICATIONS DUE TO IDA, WE
CANNOT CONCLUSIVELY DETERMINE THIS WAS A
TORNADO. THIS DAMAGE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
60 MPH STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS UNLESS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION IS FOUND.
&&
LNThe office that day
Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 7:21 PM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | LIX | Orleans, Saint Bernard, Saint Tammany | 15 hr |
| Dec 10, 3:00 PM CST | Marine Dense Fog Advisory | LIX | 18 hr | |
| Dec 10, 3:02 PM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | LIX | Saint Tammany | 18 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Louisiana, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.