River Flood Warning 12, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
408 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...
A stalled frontal boundary will be moving out of our area by
tonight. Friday and Saturday, rain chances will be increased due
to increased Gulf convection lingering along that frontal
boundary. This rainfall would mainly be along the coastal areas,
but it is possible to have an isolated or scattered shower over
the inland areas as well. These showers would mainly have the
potential for some frequent lightning and light to moderate
rainfall. Northerly surface winds will help to enhance the cold
air over the region through the weekend.

Sunday will be mostly dry. There is the chance for an isolated
shower or two due to some lingering convection and moisture over
the region. This rain would be light to moderate. Again,
northerly surface winds will be helping to enhance the cold air
advection over the region.

Monday, a cold front will be moving through the area. Rain chances
will be increased Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
This rainfall is expected to be primarily light to moderate.
Temperatures will be approaching or below freezing for our
northernmost areas starting late Monday night. For some areas,
mainly our northernmost Louisiana parishes and southern
Misssissippi counties, the rain and cold temperatures will align
enough to potentially have some winter precipitation (mainly
freezing rain/sleet mix) late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The northshore areas could also see some wintery mix of
precipitation during the early morning hours Tuesday as well.
Despite the chance for winter precipitation, we are not expecting
any impacts or impactful accumulation.

However, this forecast is highly dependent upon how this system
develops over the next few days. Small changes could have a big
impact on the potential for winter weather.

Another concern for Tuesday morning apart from the type of
precipiation will be the temperatures. Lows on Tuesday morning are
expected to be well below freezing (low to mid 20s) and wind
chills will be in the upper 10s and low 20s for our northshore
areas, northern Louisiana parishes, and southern Mississippi
counties. Low temperatures will be at or just below freezing
(upper 20s to low 30s) and wind chills will be in the low 20s for
our southshore areas, southern Louisiana parishes and coastal
Mississippi counties. Those spending time outdoors Tuesday morning
and vulnerable populations will need to be especially careful
during these colder than normal conditions.

Tuesday will be mostly dry conditions due to some weak ridging
that is expected to set up. Northerly surface winds will help to
enhance cold air advection into the area.

Wednesday, some weak upper level impulses will influence the area.
Rain chances will be higher Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly
along the coastal areas. The rain will be mainly light to
moderate. Surface winds will finally turn to be more easterly,
which will help fuel some moisture back into the area. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Package...
MVFR/IFR conditions or lower will be likely for much of the day
today into the evening hours at all area airports. Showers and
vicinity showers will cause lower ceilings and visibilities
throughout the day. Visibilties should improve by the early
afternoon, but the low ceilings will persist through the evening
hours. Some gusty winds inside of showers will be likely today
during the afternoon hours, as well. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be northerly and strong (15-20 knots) Friday through
Tuesday. Winds will be northerly and calm (<15 knots) Tuesday
night. Winds will be easterly and calm (<15 knots) Wednesday.
Thursday, winds will be primarily westerly and calm (<15 knots).
MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  39  47  38  46 /  60  70  60  40
BTR  41  48  41  49 /  60  80  50  40
ASD  47  55  43  55 /  60  70  70  50
MSY  50  54  46  54 /  60  70  60  50
GPT  49  57  46  57 /  60  70  70  60
PQL  49  59  45  58 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&