Tornado Warning 3, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
255 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for
significant severe storms this afternoon and evening. A combination
of a stationary front, warm front, and dry line will all help to
initiate several storms across western and north central Nebraska
and into northern Kansas. Latest radar and satellite imagery shows
several isolated, but weak storms moving across north central
Nebraska at this time. In addition, the latest special 18Z sounding
shows moderate instability and a decent capping inversion. As a
result these storms do not appear to be strong right now, but some
clearing across southwest Nebraska is expected to add just a little
more instability and increase surface temperatures helping to erode
any cap. Therefore, any storms that continue to develop in southwest
Nebraska and the I-80 corridor are expected to develop more rapidly
and have the potential to become severe by late afternoon.

Heading into this evening, latest hi-res models show plenty of
instability across the region. CAPE values up to 2000 J/kg as well
as steep low level lapse rates of 7-9 C/km will combine to result in
a decent severe threat on this evening. Hail up to 2 inches in
diameter and wind speeds of 70 mph or greater should be expected.
There is also a chance for isolated tornadoes mainly across
southwest Nebraska. The tornado threat will diminish as the evening
wears on becoming mostly a hail, strong wind, and heavy rain event
by late evening.

After midnight, the majority of the best instability will have been
exhausted resulting in storms switching to a mainly heavy rain
threat. The best rainfall looks like it will fall just to the east
of our area. There, up to 2 to 3 inches of rainfall could be
experienced. Still, there's the potential for our far southeastern
counties (Frontier, Hayes, and southeast Lincoln) could still see
rainfall amounts up to 1 to 1.5 inches. While flooding is not a
concern at this time due to a quick storm motion, some localized
flooding may be possible especially if training of storms develops.

For Thursday, rain lingers across our eastern counties into Thursday
morning before completely pushing off to the east by the afternoon.
Weak ridging will then allow for quiet weather to return once again
for the end of the week. Cooler air also pushes in for the end of
the week with highs ranging from the mid 50s (across the north) to
the low 70s (south of I-80) on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Active weather will then continue this weekend as a series of
disturbances moves through the region. Thunderstorms are possible
through Monday especially in the afternoons and evenings when
instability is highest. At this time, the severe potential remains
uncertain, but will keep a close eye on this over the next few days.

Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler through the
weekend as well. At this time, high temperatures will remain in the
low 60s to low 70s through Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will
remain steady in the 40s for most locations and into the low 50s
across the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across
southwest Nebraska, becoming more scattered to widespread this
evening. Strong winds and hail will be possible with these storms.
Stratus will move in overnight with MVFR to IFR conditions. Winds
will become strong Thursday morning with gust of 25 knots
possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-272015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
312 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 /212 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms are likely through the evening across all of
the outlook area. The greatest threat for severe storms is south
of a line from Hay Springs to Thedford to Burwell. Very large
hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts up to
70 MPH and isolated tornadoes are possible with the strongest
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Tuesday. At
this time, the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter groups across the eastern Nebraska Panhandle, Sandhills
and southwestern Nebraska, should be ready for activation this
afternoon and evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
328 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ037-038-059-262100-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
328 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN AND WEST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maxwell, or 18 miles east of North Platte, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arnold, Brady, Maxwell, Keith, Finchville and Milldale.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 243 and 252.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 191 and 200.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4097 10038 4108 10058 4150 10026 4134 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 215DEG 25KT 4109 10043

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
356 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ025-026-037-038-262130-
Custer NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-Logan NE-
356 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN
CUSTER...SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 356 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Stapleton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Halsey and Brown Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 225 and 227, and between mile markers
241 and 243.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 120 and 130.

LAT...LON 4157 10046 4166 10059 4193 10030 4175 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 224DEG 36KT 4168 10045

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ036-059-262130-
McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-
400 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Sutherland, or 20 miles southwest of Tryon, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Lincoln and south central McPherson Counties.

This includes Highway 97 between mile markers 13 and 14.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4121 10115 4130 10123 4149 10109 4135 10086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 215DEG 24KT 4130 10115

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
422 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ036-037-059-262200-
McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
422 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

At 422 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Tryon, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ringgold.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 206 and 222.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 13 and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4131 10095 4141 10109 4164 10082 4144 10059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 231DEG 32KT 4142 10096

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
442 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ038-262215-
Custer NE-
442 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Callaway, or 19 miles southwest of Broken Bow, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Callaway and Lodi.

This includes Highway 92 near mile marker 267.

LAT...LON 4114 10001 4126 10009 4149 9988 4123 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 240DEG 41KT 4125 9996

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
500 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ059-071-262245-
Frontier NE-Lincoln NE-
500 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FRONTIER AND
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 500 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moorefield, or 11 miles northeast of Curtis, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moorefield.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4076 10050 4095 10034 4086 10022 4070 10022
      4070 10008 4063 10034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 224DEG 30KT 4075 10035

Gomez