Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2021

Latest analysis shows an upper level trough across the area with one
short wave moving across the area this afternoon into tonight, and
another wave is expected to move across the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. At the surface, a stationary front remains over the
SE and deep south states, with multiple areas of low pressure along
the front. Areas of high pressure continue to our N/NW. It's a
beautiful day across much of eastern KY this afternoon with partly
cloudy skies and temps in the upper 70s to around 80. There are
however some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over
far SE KY near the VA line. A surface boundary in the area, along
with higher dew points and PWATS will continue to allow scattered
storms to develop through this evening, especially over far E/SE KY.
Locally heavy rain is possible with some of these storms. This part
of KY has been the driest over the past couple weeks, so unless
multiple storms move over the same area in a short period of time or
a storm becomes anchored over an area for an extended period,
flooding is not anticipated. Pops diminish late tonight with just
isolated showers expected overnight into Wednesday morning. Forecast
soundings and hi-res guidance shows some low stratus forming over
far eastern KY for several hours Wednesday morning, otherwise partly
to mostly cloudy tonight with some patchy river valley fog
developing towards morning. Low temps tonight in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Additional scattered showers and storms are expected Wednesday,
especially during the afternoon and evening as the second shortwave
moves across the area. Surface boundary will drift a bit further
west, so expect a greater coverage area of storms compared to today.
Storms diminish after sunset and then partly cloudy and drier
conditions expected overnight into Thursday morning with some
typical river valley fog possible. High temps will continue to be
below normal on Wednesday ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Low temps Wednesday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2021

We will see alternating periods of dry weather and small rain
chances through out the extended, as a series of ridges and
troughs progress across the region. Any rain chances we see will
still likely be meager at best, as the weather systems moving
through will not be all that strong. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible around the area from time to
time from late Friday through the first of next week, with periods
of dry weather expected Thursday through Friday morning, Sunday
night, and Monday night. As for temperatures in the extended, a
gradual warming trend is on tap. We will start things off with
highs in the low to mid 80s Thursday and Friday, and should see
highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s from Saturday onward.
Nightly lows will be in the 60s, with the same warming trend
expected each night. We should see lows only falling into the
upper 60s by the end of the period, after starting off in the low
to mid 60s. Winds should be generally out of the south and fairly
light through out the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2021

VFR to start the 18Z TAF period. SCT Cu developing across eastern
KY this afternoon. SCT showers/storms expected mainly across far
S/SE KY this afternoon and evening which may result in brief
flight restrictions. VCTS in at KSJS, KLOZ, and KJKL. Winds are
E/NE around 5 kts or less, and will become light and variable
overnight. Some patchy river valley fog is expected early
Wednesday morning, and some low stratus is likely over far eastern
KY, most likely impacting KSJS where MVFR and possible IFR
ceilings expected for several hours Wednesday morning. Low stratus
and fog dissipate by around 14Z and all locations should be VFR
for the remainder of the period. Winds on Wednesday will continue
to be N/NE and light around 5 kts or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
317 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-042230-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
317 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through this
evening, mainly over the higher terrain of southeastern Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, especially during the
afternoon and early evening.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday through Monday
during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CMF/AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

KYZ088-113-115-118-032000-
Perry KY-Knott KY-Harlan KY-Letcher KY-
320 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Harlan,
Letcher, southeastern Perry and southeastern Knott Counties through
400 PM EDT...

At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Flint, or near Whitesburg, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Premium and Maggard around 325 PM EDT.
  Oscaloosa, Hot Spot and Jeremiah around 330 PM EDT.
  Trailer around 335 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Dongola, Day, Ice,
Whitco, Van, Isom, Oven Fork, Crown, Tillie, Whitesburg, Marlowe,
Bellcraft, Eolia, Ermine, Polly, Fleming-Neon, Colly, Mayking,
Sergent, Winters, Thornton, Wright, Farraday, Millstone and
Southdown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 8297 3720 8308 3733 8276 3731 8275
      3729 8271 3727 8273 3723 8267 3724 8266
      3717 8262 3712 8272 3705 8272 3703 8275
      3701 8279 3701 8283 3697 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 249DEG 12KT 3706 8292

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Fisher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
447 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

KYZ120-032115-
Pike KY-
447 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pike
County through 515 PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Meta, or near Pikeville, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Meta around 500 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8248 3754 8257 3763 8252 3756 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 216DEG 10KT 3755 8248

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HAL