River Flood Warning 29, NWS Jacksonville, FL

046 
WGUS82 KJAX 231431
FLSJAX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1031 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Florida...

  Santa Fe River At Fort White affecting Gilchrist and Columbia 
  Counties.

FLC023-041-231545-
/O.CAN.KJAX.FL.W.0029.210626T0000Z-210623T1431Z/
/FWHF1.1.ER.210626T0000Z.210628T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1031 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Santa Fe River At Fort White has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Santa Fe River At Fort White.
* At 9:45 AM EDT Wednesday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 22.7 feet early Monday 
  morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.


&&

LAT...LON 2993 8276 2985 8268 2984 8266 2982 8266
      2982 8271 2990 8279

$$

CORLESS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
920 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.UPDATE...

Overall forecast remains on track this evening as showers have
ended except for portions of Marion county south and east of Ocala
which should gradually wind down over the next couple of hours
with mostly cloudy skies lingering over the area. Some patchy fog
may develop over inland NE FL and SE GA areas that received around
1-2 inches of rainfall from today's storms and lows will be near
normal in the low 70s.

A cold front moving into the area tomorrow and moist southwest
flow ahead of it will lead to numerous to widespread showers with
the Gulf coast seabreeze moving inland by the late morning hours
and triggering scattered storms from highway 301 to I-95. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s over NE FL and near 90 over
interior SE GA. Light westerly winds will become east to
southeasterly behind the Atlantic seabreeze that will move in over
the I-95 corridor by mid afternoon and storms will persist a
little past sunset as the cold front sags south from Georgia to
the FL/GA state line.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [751 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection ahead of approaching cold front over NE FL will weaken
quickly late this afternoon, with generally just a few lingering
isolated showers through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will be
the main threat through about 6pm south of a line from Ocala to
Palm Coast. Lows generally near 70 degrees inland and lower to
middle 70s along the Atlc Coast.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Weakening cold front sliding southward into the NE FL/SE GA region
along with tropical moisture will continue above normal rainfall
chances with Pops in the 60-80% range both days. Main difference
between the days will be the steering flow which will remain
westerly on Wednesday and push the storms back toward the US 301
and I-95 corridors where sea breeze mergers meet, while on
Thursday the steering flow will become East to Southeast, although
at light wind speeds, will begin to shift convection more towards
inland areas on Thursday afternoon as the East Coast sea breeze
front pushes further inland and the focus becomes the US 301 to
I-75 corridors later in the day. Highs should reach back into the
mid to upper 80s for both days and main threats from storms will
be locally heavy rainfall due to the slow storm motion with
greatest threats to NE FL urban areas. Enough diurnal heating
should occur for a few stronger "pulse" storms with downburst wind
potential to 50 mph each afternoon as well.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

High Pressure ridge builds north of the region which will help to
deepen the Easterly steering flow through the weekend. Normally
this would be a drier pattern, but it will take a while for the
moisture from the old frontal boundary to get pushed west of the
region, so the tropical moisture with Precipitable Water Amounts
close to 2 inches will continue at least numerous showers and
storms on a daily basis Friday/Saturday, although the East Coast
Sea breeze front will push these slowly inland each afternoon for
better evening conditions along the I-95 corridor each day. The
continued higher than normal rainfall chances will keep Max Temps
below normal and generally in the mid/upper 80s. Finally by the
Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time frame expect slightly drier airmass
aloft to push into the region from the Western Atlantic with PWATS
falling to around 1.75 inches or less, which will lead to a more
"climo/normal" scattered diurnal convection each afternoon,
starting along the I-95 corridor by early afternoon and pressing
well inland by the late afternoon hours along the I-75 corridor.
This will allow for a return to near normal highs into the lower
90s over inland areas and upper 80s along the Atlc Coast.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

The rain has ended with showers and storms having moved off into
the Atlantic waters from rounds of convection earlier today and
VFR conditions now prevail at all TAF sites except KSSI where MVFR
ceilings will linger over the next hour with light southwest winds
and multi layered clouds over the region. Low IFR ceilings will
develop at the duval terminals and KSSI by 08/09Z with MVFR fog
possible at KGNV and KVQQ during 09Z through 12Z where heavier
rainfall from today will help support patchy fog development late
tonight. Storms will return tomorrow with VCTS at all Florida TAF
sites by 17Z. Have PROB30 groups for KGNV from 17-22Z where
storms will begin earlier as another wave of convection moves in
from the Gulf of Mexico, impacting the duval terminals and KSGJ
between 20-24Z with MVFR ceilings and visibility levels. Otherwise,
prevailing light westerly winds 6-10 knots will be possibly
higher in storms with gusts up to 25 knots with a pinned seabreeze
moving into KSGJ and KSSI by 17/18Z.

.MARINE...

Weakening cold front will slide south into the waters on Wednesday
and wash out on Thursday. The offshore flow at 15 to 20 knots
tonight will weaken on Wednesday and become light and variable by
Wednesday Night with seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. High pressure
ridge builds in north of the waters Friday through the weekend
with easterly flow developing generally in the 10 to 15 knot range
with seas rebuilding back towards 3 to 5 feet.

Rip Currents: Low end Moderate risk of rip currents will continue
at Atlantic Beaches of NE FL/SE GA with surf/breakers of 2-3 ft.
A more solid Moderate risk of rip current will develop Friday into
the weekend as onshore/easterly flow develops.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wetter than normal conditions will continue through the end of the
week with patchy low daytime dispersions Wednesday and Thursday.

.HYDROLOGY...

River rises are expected on the Santa Fe and Black Creek basins
over the next couple of days as the wet pattern continues with
Action level stages likely. Too early to determine if minor river
flooding will occur. Will depend on coverage and intensity of
convection over the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  69  89  70  86  67 /  30  10  20  70  10
SSI  73  86  74  83  74 /  30  20  30  60  40
JAX  70  89  71  86  71 /  20  60  40  70  40
SGJ  71  89  72  85  72 /  40  60  60  70  40
GNV  70  88  70  85  69 /  30  70  50  90  30
OCF  71  89  71  86  70 /  70  90  60  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
420 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

FLZ137-140-240-222115-
Central Marion FL-Eastern Putnam FL-Eastern Marion FL-
420 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

* At 420 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking thunderstorms centered near Juniper Springs, moving
  northeast at 30 mph.

* Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible with these storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Crescent City, Salt Springs, Juniper Springs, Lynne, Weirsdale,
  Fruitland, Ocklawaha, Moss Bluff, Silver Springs Shores and Lake
  Weir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2923 8204 2949 8152 2937 8151 2932 8168
      2928 8164 2905 8164 2905 8166 2896 8166
      2896 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 246DEG 25KT 2917 8179

ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
457 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW HILDRETH           29.99N 82.85W
06/22/2021  M4.01 INCH       SUWANNEE           FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW STATION HEART M RANCH KFLOBRIE9.
            RAIN BEGAN AROUND 10 AM.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
506 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW COLUMBIA           30.12N 82.73W
06/22/2021  M4.69 INCH       COLUMBIA           FL   MESONET

            AMBIENT WEATHER STATION KELLICHE ESTATES
            KFLLAKEC39. RAIN BEGAN AROUND 10:50 AM.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW COLUMBIA          30.06N 82.70W
06/22/2021  M3.73 INCH       COLUMBIA           FL   MESONET

            AMBIENT WEATHER STATION COLUMBIA COUNTY,
            LAKE CITY, FL KFLLAKEC28. RAIN BEGAN AROUND
            10:30 AM.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
533 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW TALLYRAND          30.39N 81.66W
06/22/2021                   DUVAL              FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND FELL ON TOP OF A
            HOUSE ON WEST 69TH STREET IN JACKSONVILLE.
            NO INJURIES. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KC