Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Advisories in 2021

River Flood Advisory 7, NWS Jackson, MS

March 19, 2021Bolivar County, Washington County, Mississippi; Chicot County, Desha County, Arkansas

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood advisory at Mar 19, 2021, 11:13 AM CDT for Bolivar County, Washington County, Mississippi; Chicot County, Desha County, Arkansas. It was in force for 6 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 19, 2021, 11:13 AM CDT (16:13 UTC)
Expired
Mar 25, 2021, 11:46 AM CDT
In force
6 days
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Chicot County, AR, Desha County, AR, Bolivar County, MS, Washington County, MS

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 169 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Mississippi River near Arkansas City (ARSA4).

Action stage
36 ft
Minor stage
37 ft
Moderate stage
40 ft
Major stage
44 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

608 
WGUS84 KJAN 191613
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1113 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood 
Advisory for the following rivers in Mississippi...Arkansas...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Forecast includes rainfall on the ground and 24 hours of additional 
rainfall.

Additional information is available at 
www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-200415-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.210319T1613Z-210402T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1113 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flood Advisory for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* From this morning to Friday, April 02.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Friday the stage was 35.2 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to 35.5 feet early Sunday 
  afternoon. It will then fall to 35.1 feet and begin rising again 
  early Wednesday morning. The river will crest at 36.0 feet on 
  Thursday, April 01.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The Road to donaldson point is cut off.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.2  Fri 10 am CD 35.5  35.5  35.3         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

2
8 follow-up statements
272 
WGUS84 KJAN 201626
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...The Flood Advisory is extended for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...Mississippi...Arkansas...

  Mississippi River Near Greenville affecting Chicot County and 
  East Carroll Parish and Issaquena and Washington Counties.

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Arkansas...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Forecast includes rainfall on the ground and 48 hours of additional 
rainfall.

Additional information is available at 
www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-210430-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210401T0000Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...The Flood Advisory is now in effect until Wednesday, March 31...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* Until Wednesday, March 31.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 35.6 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to 35.7 feet just after midnight 
  tonight. It will then fall to 35.3 feet and begin rising again 
  early Thursday morning. It will rise to 36.0 feet Wednesday, March 
  31. It will then fall again and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The Road to donaldson point is cut off.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.6  Sat 11 am CD 35.6  35.5  35.3         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-210430-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...The Flood Advisory is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Greenville.
* Until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 46.4 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 48.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to 46.5 feet early Monday morning. 
  It will then fall to 46.2 feet and begin rising again early 
  Thursday morning. It will rise to 47.0 feet Thursday, April 01. It 
  will then fall again and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Water begins to cover the dirt road leading 
  to the Farmers Grain terminal facility which is north of the 
  Greenville bridge.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Mississippi River
Greenville       48.0  46.4  Sat 11 am CD 46.5  46.4  46.3         





&&

LAT...LON 3277 9123 3340 9128 3340 9105 3283 9101
      3277 9101 3278 9111

$$
718 
WGUS84 KJAN 210210
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
910 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Arkansas...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Forecast includes rainfall on the ground and 24 hours of additional 
rainfall.

Additional information is available at 
www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next statement will be issued Sunday morning.

&&


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-211415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210401T0000Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
910 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* Until Wednesday, March 31.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 35.6 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to 35.7 feet just after midnight 
  tonight. It will then fall to 35.3 feet and begin rising again 
  early Thursday morning. It will rise to 36.0 feet Wednesday, March 
  31. It will then fall again and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The Road to donaldson point is cut off.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.6  Sat 8 pm CDT 35.6  35.4  35.3         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

LP
862 
WGUS84 KJAN 211556
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1056 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Arkansas...Louisiana...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

  Mississippi River Near Greenville affecting Chicot County and 
  East Carroll Parish and Issaquena and Washington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Forecast includes rainfall on the ground and 48 hours of additional 
rainfall.

Additional information is available at 
www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next statement will be issued this evening.

&&


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-220400-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210401T0000Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1056 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* Until Wednesday, March 31.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 35.6 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to 35.7 feet early this morning. It 
  will then fall to 35.3 feet and begin rising again early Thursday 
  morning. It will rise to 36.0 feet Wednesday, March 31. It will 
  then fall again and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The Road to donaldson point is cut off.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.6  Sat 8 pm CDT 35.4  35.3  35.3         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-220400-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1056 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Greenville.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 46.4 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 48.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 46.5 feet 
  early this morning. It will then rise to 47.0 feet Monday, March 
  29. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Water begins to cover the dirt road leading 
  to the Farmers Grain terminal facility which is north of the 
  Greenville bridge.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Mississippi River
Greenville       48.0  46.4  Sat 8 pm CDT 46.4  46.3  46.3         





&&

LAT...LON 3277 9123 3340 9128 3340 9105 3283 9101
      3277 9101 3278 9111

$$
178 
WGUS84 KJAN 220109
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
809 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...The Flood Advisory is extended for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Arkansas...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Forecast includes rainfall on the ground and 24 hours of additional 
rainfall.

Additional information is available at 
www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next statement will be issued Monday morning.

&&


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-221400-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210401T0600Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
809 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...The Flood Advisory is now in effect until Thursday, April 01...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* Until Thursday, April 01.
* At 7:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 35.6 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.0 feet 
  Monday, March 29.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The Road to donaldson point is cut off.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.6  Sun 7 pm CDT 35.4  35.3  35.3         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

LP
051 
WGUS84 KJAN 221538
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1038 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Arkansas...Louisiana...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

  Mississippi River Near Greenville affecting Chicot County and 
  East Carroll Parish and Issaquena and Washington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Forecast includes rainfall on the ground and 48 hours of additional 
rainfall.

Additional information is available at 
www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-230345-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210401T0000Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1038 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...The Flood Advisory is now in effect until Wednesday, March 31...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* Until Wednesday, March 31.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 35.5 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.0 feet 
  Tuesday, March 30.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The Road to donaldson point is cut off.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.5  Mon 10 am CD 35.4  35.2  35.3         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-230345-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1038 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Greenville.
* Until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 46.3 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 48.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 47.0 feet 
  Tuesday, March 30.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Water begins to cover the dirt road leading 
  to the Farmers Grain terminal facility which is north of the 
  Greenville bridge.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Mississippi River
Greenville       48.0  46.3  Mon 10 am CD 46.1  46.0  46.0         





&&

LAT...LON 3277 9123 3340 9128 3340 9105 3283 9101
      3277 9101 3278 9111

$$

2
138 
WGUS84 KJAN 231642
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1142 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

...The Flood Advisory is extended for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Arkansas...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...Mississippi...Arkansas...

  Mississippi River Near Greenville affecting Chicot County and 
  East Carroll Parish and Issaquena and Washington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Forecast includes rainfall on the ground and 48 hours of additional 
rainfall.

Additional information is available at 
www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-240445-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210401T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1142 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

...The Flood Advisory is now in effect until Thursday, April 01...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* Until Thursday, April 01.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 35.6 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest at 36.5 feet on Wednesday, March 
  31.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.6  Tue 11 am CD 35.6  35.9  36.1         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-240445-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1142 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Greenville.
* Until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 46.3 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 48.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest at 47.0 feet on Wednesday, March 
  31.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

Mississippi River
Greenville       48.0  46.3  Tue 11 am CD 46.3  46.5  46.6         





&&

LAT...LON 3277 9123 3340 9128 3340 9105 3283 9101
      3277 9101 3278 9111

$$

2
526 
WGUS84 KJAN 241646
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Arkansas...Louisiana...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

  Mississippi River Near Greenville affecting Chicot County and 
  East Carroll Parish and Issaquena and Washington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Forecast includes rainfall on the ground and 48 hours of additional 
rainfall.

Additional information is available at 
www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next statement will be issued tomorrow at 800 AM.

&&


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-250500-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210401T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* Until Thursday, April 01.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 35.7 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.5 feet 
  early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet, The low silt plain in front of arkansas 
  city inside the levee system begins to flood along with widespread 
  bottomland flooding at huntington point mississippi.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Thu   Fri   Sat          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.7  Wed 11 am CD 35.9  36.1  36.2         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-250500-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Mississippi River Near Greenville.
* Until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 46.4 feet.
* Action stage is 36.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 48.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 47.0 feet 
  early Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Water begins to cover the dirt road leading 
  to the Farmers Grain terminal facility which is north of the 
  Greenville bridge.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Thu   Fri   Sat          

Mississippi River
Greenville       48.0  46.4  Wed 11 am CD 46.5  46.6  46.8         





&&

LAT...LON 3277 9123 3340 9128 3340 9105 3283 9101
      3277 9101 3278 9111

$$

AJ
520 
WGUS84 KJAN 251646
FLSJAN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1146 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...The Flood Advisory is replaced with a River Flood Warning for the 
following rivers in Mississippi...Arkansas...

  Mississippi River Near Arkansas City affecting Bolivar, 
  Washington, Chicot and Desha Counties.

ARC017-041-MSC011-151-251800-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210325T1646Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1146 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City 
has been replaced...

The Flood Advisory is replaced by a river flood warning for
  the Mississippi River Near Arkansas City.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 35.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to crest at 37.0 feet Monday 
  evening.

&&


                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Mississippi River
Arkansas City    37.0  35.8  Thu 11 am CD 36.2  36.6  36.8         





&&

LAT...LON 3340 9128 3357 9128 3413 9108 3411 9066
      3358 9106 3340 9105

$$

2

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood advisory went out at Mar 19, 6:08 AM CDT, 5 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 19, 6:08 AM CDT, 5 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
608 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:

Cold advection MVFR category stratus and gusty NW surface winds
should prevail for the most part today. Ceilings may begin to
improve some tonight, but confidence is low concerning how quickly
the stratus will lift and erode. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through tonight: Conditions will be rather unpleasant with
cloudy, cool, and breezy weather continuing over the ArkLaMiss
region. Cyclonic flow on the western periphery of the upper level
trough anchored to our east will maintain the cold advection
pattern and associated stratus. There may even be enough low
level moisture for the CAA to squeeze out some drizzle/sprinkles,
but will hold off on any explicit mention at this point given the
relatively dry look to the subcloud layer in guidance. Otherwise,
high temperatures will be roughly 15 to 20 deg F below
climatological normal, and veering surface winds will remain gusty
today before diminishing tonight. /EC/

Saturday through Monday: Dry conditions will persist through the
weekend as we catch the southern end of a surface ridge axis
shifting from the Midwest into New England. With some of the
remnants of the upper trough lingering over the Southeast and a
weak backdoor front due to some cold air wedging along the
Appalachians, a least broken clouds may still linger into the day
Saturday. It will also remain seasonably cooler (though warmer
than today). However, as shortwave ridging builds on Sunday, clear
conditions will return and we will begin a brief warming trend.

Tuesday through Thursday: A return to more active weather is
anticipated for mid to late next week as the subtropical upper jet
strengthens along the US/Mexico border Monday into Tuesday. As this
occurs, an upper trough will build over the Intermountain West. An
initial surface cyclone will track from the Southern Plains into the
Midwest, dragging a cold front into our area for Tuesday. With a
limited window of moisture return ahead of this initial system, only
weak instability is forecast - enough to include isolated thunder in
the forecast, but currently not expected to be enough for a severe
threat in spite of strong deep layer bulk shear.

With the upper trough remaining to our west, the initial front will
stall somewhere over our south to near the coast, and a new wave
will develop near the Gulf Coast and track northeastward across the
region Wednesday into Thursday. With the mid/upper trough a bit
closer by, steeper mid level lapse rates should support greater
thunder chances during this time frame. In addition, moderate
instability may develop on the warm side of the remnant front, and
with continuing strong deep shear, severe weather may become more of
a concern. It is too soon to say exactly where that might be as
considerable model spread exists with respect to the track of the
surface low, though generally the southeastern part of the area
would be most favored based on current guidance. We'll also need to
watch this period for heavy rain potential, with multiple rounds of
rain possible in some areas due to the quasi-stationary front.
Additionally, ensemble percentiles indicate anomalously high water
vapor transport during this time frame. We'll continue to monitor
the potential for these hazards in coming forecast cycles. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       52  42  62  40 /   0   7   1   0
Meridian      54  43  62  37 /   0   8   2   0
Vicksburg     54  41  63  41 /   0   6   0   0
Hattiesburg   55  45  64  40 /   0   7   1   0
Natchez       54  42  61  43 /   0   6   0   0
Greenville    52  40  62  41 /   0   7   1   0
Greenwood     52  43  64  39 /   0   7   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 19, 4:07 AM CDT, 7 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
407 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
200915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
407 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

20

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 19, 8:52 AM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
852 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW SONTAG             31.67N 90.23W
03/17/2021                   LAWRENCE           MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            TIN BLOW OFF 2 SHEDS, A LARGE METAL CARPORT
            FLIPPED AND SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

CE
Local storm report, Mar 19, 9:08 AM CDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE TOPEKA             31.44N 90.16W
03/17/2021                   LAWRENCE           MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A FEW TREES DOWN AND MULTIPLE LARGE LIMBS
            WERE BROKEN. A LARGE SECTION OF TIN WAS TORN
            OFF A LARGE CARPORT TYPE STRUCTURE.

&&

CE
Local storm report, Mar 19, 10:05 AM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             1 NNW LAMONT            33.55N 91.08W
03/17/2021  NAN INCH         BOLIVAR            MS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN AND TO THE
            SOUTH OF SCOTT.

&&

CE
Local storm report, Mar 19, 10:26 AM CDT, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1026 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE SPRING COTTAGE    31.07N 89.75W
03/17/2021  E75 MPH          MARION             MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE OCCURRED ACROSS
            SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY GENERALLY FROM THE
            SANDY HOOK COMMUNITY, THEN ON THE E SIDE OF
            THE RIVER AND S OF HWY 13. SOME OF THE MORE
            PRONOUNCED TREE DAMAGE WAS ON HWY 43 AND
            MAIL ROUTE RD. TREE DAMAGE HERE WAS A
            COMBINATION OF UPROOTED AND SNAPPED TREES
            ALL BLOWN DOWN TO THE NE. MAX WINDS HERE
            PEAKED AROUND 75 MPH. THE MAIN SWATH
            EXTENDED JUST INTO LAMAR COUNTY. ROUGH SWATH
            LENGTH WAS 13 MILES AND WIDTH OF 1 TO 1.5
            MILES. TIME FRAME WAS ROUGHLY 6PM TO 615PM.

&&

CE
Local storm report, Mar 19, 10:50 AM CDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ESE PINE BURR         31.11N 89.65W
03/17/2021  E75 MPH          LAMAR              MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            SWATH OF THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE CONTINUED
            INTO WESTERN LAMAR COUNTY. MANY UPROOTED AND
            SNAPPED TREES.

&&

CE
Local storm report, Mar 19, 10:55 AM CDT, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1055 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ENE PINE BURR         31.18N 89.61W
03/17/2021                   LAMAR              MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            SCATTERED DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS ALONG
            PURVIS TO COLUMBIA RD.

&&

CE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 19, 11:09 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANClaiborne, Jefferson, Warren31 days

Nearby

River Flood Advisories in Mississippi, 2021River Flood Advisories in Arkansas, 2021Every river flood advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.