Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Jackson, MS

856 
WGUS64 KJAN 240944
FFAJAN

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
444 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

MSZ063>066-072>074-241745-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0005.210324T2300Z-210326T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Columbia, New Hebron, West Hattiesburg, 
Purvis, Monticello, Lumberton, Mount Olive, Bassfield, Laurel, 
Collins, Prentiss, and Hattiesburg
444 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH 
THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Mississippi and southeast Mississippi, 
  including the following areas, in south central Mississippi, 
  Jefferson Davis, Lawrence and Marion. In southeast Mississippi, 
  Covington, Forrest, Jones and Lamar.

* From this evening through Thursday evening

* A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
  flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.You 
  should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
  should flash flood warnings be issued.

* Additional heavy rain of 1 to 3 inches will fall over saturated 
  grounds from this evening through Thursday evening. This may 
  result in additional flash flooding.

$$

JC

225 
WGUS64 KJAN 242025
FFAJAN

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
325 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

MSZ063>066-072>074-250500-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0005.210324T2300Z-210326T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, 
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia, 
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
325 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Mississippi and southeast 
  Mississippi, including the following areas in south central 
  Mississippi, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence and Marion. In 
  southeast Mississippi, Covington, Forrest, Jones and Lamar. 

* Through Thursday evening

* A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that 
  lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous 
  situation.You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared 
  to take action should flash flood warnings be issued. 

* Additional heavy rain of 1 to 3 inches will fall over 
  saturated grounds from this evening through Thursday evening. 
  This may result in additional flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

125 
WGUS64 KJAN 250406
FFAJAN

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1106 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

MSZ063>066-072>074-251215-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210326T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Columbia, New Hebron, West Hattiesburg, 
Purvis, Monticello, Lumberton, Mount Olive, Bassfield, Laurel, 
Collins, Prentiss, and Hattiesburg
1106 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Mississippi and southeast Mississippi, 
  including the following areas, in south central Mississippi, 
  Jefferson Davis, Lawrence and Marion. In southeast Mississippi, 
  Covington, Forrest, Jones and Lamar.

* Through Thursday evening

* The threat for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue 
  over the watch area through Thursday.

* Flooding of low lying and urban areas and a few road closures will 
  be possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

EC

338 
WGUS64 KJAN 250852
FFAJAN

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
352 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

MSZ063>066-072>074-251000-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210326T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Columbia, New Hebron, West Hattiesburg, 
Purvis, Monticello, Lumberton, Mount Olive, Bassfield, Laurel, 
Collins, Prentiss, and Hattiesburg
352 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Mississippi and 
southeast Mississippi, including the following areas, in south 
central Mississippi, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence and Marion. In 
southeast Mississippi, Covington, Forrest, Jones and Lamar has been 
cancelled.

While storms may occur over this region today, and additional 
rainfall can occur, flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.

$$

JC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
149 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
The heaviest showers and thunderstorms are beginning to exit the
area, but rain continues at MEI/HBG/PIB but will end from west to
east this afternoon. With the exception of GWO/GLH, most sites
will remain IFR/MVFR through the period. GLH/GWO will become VFR
later this afternoon and continue through much of the evening, but
will once again become MVFR overnight. The gusty winds will
subside through the afternoon hours and will remain southerly at
05-10kts through the remainder of the period./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A band of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across
the area this morning. A couple of the storms have become strong,
mainly along and south of the Highway 84 corridor. This band of
storms will continue to move eastward through the morning into the
afternoon hours. A strong to possibly severe storm will continue
to be possible in the south, before the storms move east of the
area this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will also continue
into the early afternoon hours, along with the potential
development of a wake low behind the precip, which could produce
40-50mph winds. A wind advisory for areas mainly along and west of
the I-55 corridor is in effect, along with a marginal risk for
severe in the south. Temperatures for most of the area will top
out in the mid 60s, but expect warmer temps in the west, as some
clearing will allow more sun and warmer temperatures. /15/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight: A more active weather pattern is underway as a
potent shortwave swings from the Southern Plains into the Midwest,
dragging a cold front eastward toward the Mississippi River today.
Ahead of this front, a prefrontal band of convection, currently
extending from central AR through northwest LA and into eastern TX
will continue to push eastward. HREF consensus is this line will
move into northeast/central Louisiana around daybreak and make quick
eastward progress across our area through the day. This would leave
relatively quiet conditions in the western part of the area by
afternoon and across most of the area for tonight. With considerable
clouds and rain moving through early in the day, temps will struggle
to rise significantly during the daytime, though there are some
signs that clearing this afternoon could allow for a window of
warming in the west. Otherwise, high temps were cut back a few
degrees toward raw temp guidance to account for this.

Strong deep layer bulk shear will exist over the region today, with
rather high low level SRH as well. However, little to no instability
exists across the forecast area right now, with only a narrow
corridor of weak ML and MUCAPE just along and ahead of the ongoing
convection to our west. With this mostly continuing to be the case
today, it will limit the northward extend of the severe threat,
especially farther west where the line will move through earlier in
the morning. As storms continue eastward through the day, we could a
slight uptick in intensity as somewhat greater instability noses
ahead of the line. It appears more likely there will be a definitive
cutoff to the severe threat this afternoon, once the line moves out
of the area. Damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail are the
primary threats anticipated. If enough instability develops to tap
into the strong low level shear, we cannot rule out a limited
tornado threat. Forecast 0-3 km bulk shear vectors suggest the
greatest tornado potential will exist with any line segments that
surge more ENEward.

The non-convective wind threat still exists, though it has become
more convoluted. There have already been a few gusts above 30 mph
overnight with dying shower activity advancing into north LA and the
Delta and some gusts above 40 mph outside of the CWA. High res
guidance continues to depict the opportunity for a few corridors of
these higher wind gusts both ahead of the convective line early this
morning and on the back edge of the precip shield a bit later today.
Guidance continues to show the greatest probably for stronger gusts
in the area currently under a Wind Advisory (mainly along/west of I-
55) but with some of the wind gusts continuing a bit farther into
the day. Thus the advisory was extended through 18z.

Localized flooding is also possible today where convection is
expected to be more active in the south. However, forecast amounts
are low enough that the overall flash flood threat is low
(especially relative to later in the week). /DL/

Wednesday into next week...

Models are still on track with the active weather pattern setting up
for much of this week. Several rounds of potential severe weather
along with heavy rainfall/flooding concerns still look to be
present.

By Wednesday, models continue to indicate some convection lingering
along the coast from what moved through on Tuesday. Much of the
remainder of the forecast area will have been scoured out by the
Tuesday convection but some light rain may occur in the morning. It
appears there will be a break in the rain as models don't seem eager
to develop much through much of the day and this coastal convection
likely has a lot to do with how long we can hold off. However, a
warm front will lift back north through the afternoon into the
evening hours. As this occurs, 850mb flow increases substantially
through the afternoon and evening. This will help increase moisture
back into the region as low to mid 60s dewpoints will return to the
entire area by Wednesday evening. MUCAPE values will also be
increasing through the evening and night with around 1000-1800 J/Kg
present by 12Z Thursday. There will be sufficient wind shear as 35-
40kts of low level, and 50-60kts of deep layer shear will also be
increasing through the evening and night. Vertical totals are shown
around 27-29C as well. Hi-res guidance indicates that storms may
begin to develop in the south by later afternoon(say 2pm or 3pm) and
should continue into the evening and likely overnight. Hail and
damaging winds will be a concern through the evening and overnight.
A tornado cannot be ruled out given the presence of the warm front
and ample shear and helicity values. A slight risk has been
introduced for this, particularly for overnight.

Our next bigger weather system will start to take better shape come
Wednesday night as an upper trough digs south across the Desert
Southwest and a surface low develops across east/central Texas. This
trough, as it swings east across the Midwest, starts to take on a
negative tilt. The surface low deepens to sub 1000mb. The intensity
of this low varies by models, with the operational GFS still being
faster and less intense and the operational ECMWF being stronger.
Regardless, this system will be the impetus for our next round of
more significant severe weather across the region. With the warm
front to our north, the entire region will be placed within the
warm, unstable airmass with an influx of mid to upper 60s dewpoints
across the entire area and even some lower 70s dewpoints across the
south. Severe weather parameters will be sufficient on Thursday with
1900-3200 J/kg MUCAPE, 27-28C vertical totals, 6.5-7 C/km mid level
lapse rates, 45kts of low level shear and upwards of 60-70kts deeper
layer shear and 300-500 m2/s2 SRH. All of this would support
damaging winds, larger hail and tornadoes, some of which could be
strong. While some morning convection could be lingering(the best of
which likely will be north), the best potential for severe will come
during the afternoon. Current model guidance shows this being a
rather progressive system with much of the convection to our east by
early evening.

Of another concern will be flooding. With the multiple rounds of
storms across the region, there should be widespread one to two
inches of rain across the forecast area. Models continue to depict
that some location will see an axis of higher rainfall amounts.
Generally speaking, this will be in the southeast/Pine Belt.
However, there have been some indications of locations a little
farther north as well. Nevertheless, will continue to highlight the
greatest area of concern which is the southeast. Models are
consistent that storm total accumulation of around three to five
inches through the week is expected, with the heaviest rainfall
likely occurring during the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe.
This is being highlighted in the elevated risk in the graphics/HWO
and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect, which was expanded
slightly to include Lawrence County. The limited risk was expanded a
little bit north and could see further enhancements even more north
needed given storm potential Wednesday night. Will let future shifts
assess that situation.

Friday will be a dry day. However, the cold front that moved through
will return north as a warm front on Saturday. This will keep rain
and storms in the forecast for the region as the upper trough
lingers across the Deep South. It will finally move east on Sunday
and this will finally push the front back south once again, leaving
the rest of Sunday into Monday dry. Shortwave ridging will prevail
briefly into early Monday before another system looks to affect the
region sometime Tuesday or Wednesday, with some timing differences
among models with this solution. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  59  75  64 /  95  29  52  90
Meridian      66  58  73  62 /  93  49  60  90
Vicksburg     71  59  78  64 /  99   8  49  89
Hattiesburg   69  60  74  64 /  96  52  81  79
Natchez       72  59  76  65 / 100  14  62  83
Greenville    75  58  77  64 /  91   7  16  90
Greenwood     70  60  78  64 /  88   6  19  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ063>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-
040>042-047-241115-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-Warren-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due wind gusts of
49 to 50 mph through this afternoon. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Multiple rounds of rain and
storms through the week will lead to potential for heavy rain and
flooding, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread one to two
inches of rain will be possible but the greatest threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be along and south of a Natchez to
Vicksburg to Philadelphia line.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Thursday night.

MSZ028>033-037>039-241115-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to wind gusts of 30
to 40 mph through this afternoon. High profile vehicles could
also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Multiple rounds of rain and
storms through the week will lead to potential for heavy rain and
flooding, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread one to two
inches of rain will be possible but the greatest threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be along and south of a Natchez to
Vicksburg to Philadelphia line.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Thursday night.

MSZ044>046-050>052-057-058-241115-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to wind gusts of 30
to 40 mph through this afternoon. High profile vehicles could
also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Multiple rounds of rain will affect the region through Thursday.
One to three inches of rain will be possible during this time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Multiple rounds of rain and
storms through the week will lead to potential for heavy rain and
flooding, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread one to two
inches of rain will be possible but the greatest threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be along and south of a Natchez to
Vicksburg to Philadelphia line.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Thursday night.

MSZ043-048-049-241115-
Madison MS-Hinds-Rankin-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due wind gusts of
49 to 50 mph through this afternoon. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Multiple rounds of rain will affect the region through Thursday.
One to three inches of rain will be possible during this time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Multiple rounds of rain and
storms through the week will lead to potential for heavy rain and
flooding, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread one to two
inches of rain will be possible but the greatest threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be along and south of a Natchez to
Vicksburg to Philadelphia line.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Thursday night.

MSZ053>055-059>062-241115-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due wind gusts of
49 to 50 mph through this afternoon. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Multiple rounds of rain will affect the region through Thursday.
One to three inches of rain will be possible during this time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, hail are possible. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Multiple rounds of rain and
storms through the week will lead to potential for heavy rain and
flooding, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread one to two
inches of rain will be possible but the greatest threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be along and south of a Natchez to
Vicksburg to Philadelphia line.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today and
Wednesday through Thursday night.

MSZ063-241115-
Lawrence-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due wind gusts of
49 to 50 mph through this afternoon. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Multiple rounds of rain will affect the region through Thursday.
Three to five inches of rain will be possible during this time.
This could result in localized flash flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, hail are possible. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Multiple rounds of rain and
storms through the week will lead to potential for heavy rain and
flooding, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread one to two
inches of rain will be possible but the greatest threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be along and south of a Natchez to
Vicksburg to Philadelphia line.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today and
Wednesday through Thursday night.

MSZ056-241115-
Smith-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph through this afternoon. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Multiple rounds of rain will affect the region through Thursday.
One to three inches of rain will be possible during this time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, hail are possible. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Multiple rounds of rain and
storms through the week will lead to potential for heavy rain and
flooding, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread one to two
inches of rain will be possible but the greatest threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be along and south of a Natchez to
Vicksburg to Philadelphia line.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today and
Wednesday through Thursday night.

MSZ064>066-072>074-241115-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph through this afternoon. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Multiple rounds of rain will affect the region through Thursday.
Three to five inches of rain will be possible during this time.
This could result in localized flash flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, hail are possible. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Multiple rounds of rain and
storms through the week will lead to potential for heavy rain and
flooding, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread one to two
inches of rain will be possible but the greatest threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be along and south of a Natchez to
Vicksburg to Philadelphia line.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today and
Wednesday through Thursday night.

LAZ026-241115-
Concordia-
608 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due wind gusts of
40 to 50 mph through this afternoon. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, hail are possible. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several rounds of storms and potential severe weather will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Severe storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday night for the
whole outlook area. Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will all
be possible. A more potent storm system will move through the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is higher
confidence this will bring severe weather to the entire outlook
area with damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail all being possible.
Some tornadoes could be strong.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today and
Wednesday through Thursday night.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
947 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

MSZ062-063-231515-
Lawrence MS-Lincoln MS-
947 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

At 946 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over East Lincoln, or 11 miles southeast of Brookhaven, moving east
at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Topeka around 955 AM CDT.
  Monticello and Robinwood around 1010 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3137 9039 3162 9036 3163 9003 3136 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1446Z 260DEG 24KT 3149 9028

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1045 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

MSZ072-231645-
Marion MS-
1045 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARION COUNTY UNTIL 1145 AM
CDT...

At 1044 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Kokomo, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Holly Springs around 1055 AM CDT.
  Morgantown around 1100 AM CDT.
  Columbia and Pickwick around 1105 AM CDT.
  Improve around 1120 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 8984 3107 8992 3113 8994 3113 9001
      3117 9001 3118 9003 3123 9003 3124 9004
      3135 9004 3142 8967 3102 8968 3102 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 257DEG 31KT 3120 9004

DB