Freeze Watch 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Knox County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Woodford County, IL

590 
WWUS73 KILX 191927
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
227 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-200330-
/O.UPG.KILX.FZ.A.0002.210421T0200Z-210421T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KILX.FZ.W.0004.210421T0600Z-210421T1400Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-
Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-
Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln, 
Clinton, Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown, 
Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville, 
Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, 
Shelbyville, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson, 
Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
227 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, southeast and west 
  central Illinois.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Another night of sub-freezing temperatures
  is likely Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

Shimon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1117 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

A strong cold front will move into central Illinois on Monday.
While most areas south of I-72 will still reach into the 60s,
temperatures further north are likely to be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon. Behind the front, much colder air is on
tap, with some areas struggling to get out of the 30s on Tuesday.
Rain and snow is expected Monday night and Tuesday, with potential
for some light snow accumulations on grassy areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Diurnal showers have been fading quite a bit over the last hour,
and what's left of them should go away over the next hour. The
cold front which will bring a last gasp of winter currently
extends from northwest Wisconsin into central Nebraska, and is
progged to be knocking on our doorstep by sunrise. No impacts
expected in the overnight period aside from an increase in clouds
again. Updated grids have been sent, and new zone forecasts will
soon follow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

A short-wave trough over Missouri is interacting with a weak
surface trough just east of I-55 to trigger widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms across mainly the E/SE KILX CWA this
afternoon. The showers will gradually dissipate after sunset, with
mostly clear skies expected across the board through the overnight
hours. Abundant sunshine will start the day on Monday: however,
mid/high clouds will be on the increase everywhere north of the
I-70 corridor as the day progresses as a cold front sinks
southward into the area. High temperatures will range from the
lower 50s far north around Galesburg...to the upper 60s south of
I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

12z Apr 18 models have all sped up the arrival of the strong cold
front on Monday, with all solutions dropping it south of I-70 by
evening. A band of post-frontal showers will develop during the
late afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-72. While CAMs are
fairly bullish with QPF Monday night, the synoptic models such as
the GFS/GEM/ECMWF all feature much lighter precip across
central/northern Illinois. With a wave of low pressure developing
upstream along the frontal boundary across the southern Plains,
think the strongest forcing for overrunning precip will focus to
the west of central Illinois for much of Monday night...with the
precip spilling into the CWA from the west by early Tuesday
morning. As a result, have kept PoPs mostly in the chance category
along/north of I-72 Monday night...increasing to likely in the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn Tuesday.

As surface temperatures cool into the middle to upper 30s, thermal
profiles become supportive of a rain/snow mix along/north of a
Springfield to Champaign line Tuesday morning. Temps will only
rise a couple of degrees through the day, so mixed phase precip
will likely continue across part of this area through the
afternoon. As low pressure tracks into the Ohio River Valley and
the front begins to get pulled further southeast, falling temps
will allow rain to mix with and change to a period of wet snow
further east across the remainder of central and southeast
Illinois by Tuesday evening...before the precip comes to an end
shortly after midnight. Despite snow falling, the warm ground and
pavement temperatures will mitigate accumulations and overall
impacts with this system. Nevertheless, am expecting snow
accumulations of 1 to perhaps as much as 2 inches on grassy
surfaces along/west of the Illinois River and along/north of I-74.
Elsewhere around the area, less than 1 inch will be possible.

Once the snow ends, skies will clear from west to east Tuesday
night...allowing overnight lows to bottom out in the upper 20s and
lower 30s. Freeze Headlines will likely be needed in future
forecast packages. Sunshine will return on Wednesday: however,
strong CAA in the wake of the front will keep highs well below
normal for this time of year in the 40s. Another cold/frosty night
will be in store Wednesday night as lows once again dip into the
upper 20s and lower 30s. After that, a gradual warming trend will
get underway for the end of the week as temps return to the lower
to middle 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Main forecast impacts will be in the period from around 17Z
onward, in the wake of a strong cold front. MVFR ceilings expected
near KPIA/KBMI around midday, though it will take until mid
afternoon to reach KSPI-KCMI. Winds shift around to the west-
northwest late morning/early afternoon, before becoming more
straight out of the north as the brunt of the colder air arrives.
Light rain expected to move into KPIA/KBMI early evening, but
areas further south should remain dry during this TAF cycle.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
312 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>053-191100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-Marshall-
Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-
Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
312 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through early evening:
however, severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A mixture of rain and wet snow will develop behind a strong cold
front late Monday night into Tuesday. A snow accumulation of
around 1 inch is likely along and west of the Illinois River and
along and north of I-74. Isolated amounts of up to 2 inches are
possible. Due to warm soil and pavement temperatures, most of the
slushy accumulation will occur on grassy surfaces.

A surge of much colder air behind the front will set the stage
for widespread frost and freeze conditions both Tuesday night and
Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-191100-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-
Jasper-Lawrence-Moultrie-Richland-Shelby-
312 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through early evening:
however, severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A mixture of rain and wet snow will develop behind a strong cold
front Tuesday evening. Less than 1 inch of snow is expected,
mainly on grassy surfaces.

A surge of much colder air behind the front will set the stage
for widespread frost and freeze conditions both Tuesday night and
Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Barnes