Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Huntsville, AL

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WWUS54 KHUN 111111
SVSHUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
511 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

ALC033-059-077-111130-
/O.CON.KHUN.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-211211T1130Z/
Lauderdale AL-Colbert AL-Franklin AL-
511 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CST
FOR CENTRAL LAUDERDALE...COLBERT AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 511 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles west of Underwood-Petersville to near
Cherokee to 7 miles northeast of Tishomingo State Park, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Sheffield, Tuscumbia, Red Bay,
Cherokee, Littleville, St. Florian and Underwood-Petersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for north central
and northwestern Alabama.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 8815 3476 8797 3489 8793 3499 8754
      3473 8759 3431 8792 3432 8817 3447 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 1111Z 243DEG 48KT 3485 8791 3475 8791 3465 8806 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

KTW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
236 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Remainder of this morning and today)
Issued at 236 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to assume a pronounced
negative tilt as it lifts northeastward from the Mid-MO Valley into
the Upper-MS Valley early this morning, within a broader longwave
trough over the central CONUS. At the surface, a deepening low
related to this trough will lift rapidly northeastward from northern
IL, maintaining a steep pressure gradient and gusty south-
southwesterly flow across the local area. Widely scattered light
showers will persist across the region early this morning, in the
deep warm/moist advection regime to the east of this system, but at
this point it still appears as if surface based parcels remain capped
by a pronounced inversion rooted in the 4-5 kft layer, with our
primary focus on convection to our west.

Based on latest trends in high-resolution CAM guidance,
thunderstorms currently extending from western TN southwestward into
southern AR/northern LA will continue to evolve into a solid QLCS as
the cyclone's synoptic cold front overtakes a prefrontal surface
trough which served as the original low-level initiating mechanism.
We expect this QLCS to enter northwest AL between 10-11Z and advance
steadily southeastward, exiting the CWFA between 15-16Z. It appears
as if the risk for severe thunderstorms will be tied to the QLCS, as
there is little evidence to suggest isolated cellular activity ahead
of it. Kinematic and thermodynamic parameters, including boundary
layer dewpoints in the mid 60s and a southwesterly low-level jet of
50-60 knots, support damaging winds of 60-70 MPH and brief tornadoes
as the main threats with this system.

Although we have largely ended probabilities for thunderstorms from
NW-to-SE in the wake of the QLCS, trailing shower activity will be
possible until the arrival of the cold front, which should not occur
until around 15-16Z in northwest AL. In addition to this, strong
dynamic ascent to the north of the cold front and east of the mid-
level trough could lead to periods of light rain through early
afternoon. Outside of convection, we still expect strong gradient
winds of 20-25 MPH and gusts of 30-35 MPH (higher in elevated
terrain), and the current Wind Advisory will remain in effect until
Noon CST.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Any lingering postfrontal rain will be ending in our southeastern
counties around or shortly after 00Z, with rapid clearing expected to
occur from NW-to-SE by mid/late evening, as the axis of the longwave
trough shifts southeastward across the region. Although a light
north-northeast wind will keep the boundary layer mixed for much of
the night, it does appear as if winds will diminish around sunrise,
and a light freeze is expected Sunday morning. Surface high pressure
will build eastward into the southern Appalachians on Sunday, with a
beautiful/sunny day anticipated, featuring light/variable winds and
highs in the l-m 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Another cool night is in store for Sunday night, as high pressure
remains over the area with northwesterly flow continuing.

Flow aloft become more southwesterly and begins to bring some
warmer/more moist air into the area on Monday. Highs with abundant
sunshine should climb back into the upper 50s to lower 60s as a
result.

This trend continues into Monday night as the center of the surface
high pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region. Models also show some cloud
cover moving into northwestern Alabama after midnight as a warm
front moves northward towards the area. Warmer overnight lows are
expected as a result only dropping into the mid 30s east of the I-65
corridor and into the 40 to 45 degree range further west. There does
not appear to be sufficient lift along the front or moisture depth to
produce any precipitation at this time. So forecast remains dry. The
cloud cover and continued moisture/warm air advection should keep
lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s across the area (warmer
temperatures in NW AL).

Cloud cover overspreads the area Tuesday into Wednesday night, as
the warm front waffles around the area. With southwesterly flow
continuing as a weak cold front moves into the Midwestern states,
temperatures will continue to get warmer (both daytime and overnight
temperatures). Highs on Tuesday should climb into the mid to upper
60s and by Wednesday into the upper 60s to lower 70s with some
sunshine returning.

The cold front makes more progress eastward on Thursday. Isolated to
scattered showers look possible ahead of this front into
northwestern Alabama Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Models are very divergent concerning where this front moves on
Friday into Friday night. ECMWF keeps it over the area, as deeper
moisture and better forcing develop along it, making for a wetter and
significantly cooler solution. The GFS moves it further north into
central or northern Tennessee, keeping our rain chances much lower
and temperatures warmer. That said, have 20 to 40 percent
precipitation chances in the forecast. Overall that should make it
just a tad cooler than Thursday, but still warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Lower ceilings ave exited KMSL and KHSV, but could redevelop at
times. For now, kept ceilings at or above 030agl (VFR) until one or
more bands of SHRA and TSRA move in after 09-10Z in northwest AL.
LLWS is also included as southerly flow persists with gusts over
30kt. The main line of +TSRA with IFR conditions arrives toward
12-14Z at KMSL and 13-15Z at KHSV with the potential of strong to
severe wind gusts. The cold front will shift winds to the west-
northwest by 16-18Z with gusts of 25-35kt possible with VFR
conditions the rest of the period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
348 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-121130-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
348 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will track eastward across
the Tennessee Valley this morning, ahead of a strong cold front.
Damaging winds in the 60-70 MPH range and brief tornadoes will be the
main hazards with this system, and a Tornado Watch is in effect for
the entire outlook area through 11 AM CST. In addition to the risk
for severe thunderstorms, strong southerly winds are expected prior
to the arrival of the cold front, and a Wind Advisory remains in
effect for the entire region through Noon CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
requested this morning.

70/DD