Gale Warning 17, NWS Gray, ME

907 
WHUS71 KGYX 132006
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
306 PM EST Sat Mar 13 2021

ANZ150>154-141015-
/O.CON.KGYX.GL.W.0017.210314T1200Z-210315T1500Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
306 PM EST Sat Mar 13 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Casco Bay, Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape 
  Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM, Penobscot Bay, Coastal Waters from 
  Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM and Coastal Waters 
  from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out 25 NM.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

586 
WHUS71 KGYX 140725
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
325 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021

ANZ150>154-142130-
/O.CON.KGYX.GL.W.0017.210314T1200Z-210315T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.UP.Y.0008.210315T0400Z-210315T1700Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
325 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM
EDT MONDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
1 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft expected. For the 
  Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing 
  spray expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Merrimack River,
  MA out 25 NM, including Penobscot and Casco Bay. 

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM 
  EDT Monday. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, from midnight 
  tonight to 1 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate
hazardous accumulation of ice on their vessel. During freezing
spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises that you ensure all
lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

107 
WHUS71 KGYX 141926
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
326 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021

ANZ150>154-150930-
/O.EXT.KGYX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210315T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KGYX.UP.Y.0008.210315T0400Z-210315T2000Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
326 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft. For the Freezing Spray 
  Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray expected.

* WHERE...Casco Bay, Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape 
  Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM, Penobscot Bay, Coastal Waters from 
  Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM and Coastal Waters 
  from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out 25 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 2 PM EDT Monday. For the 
  Freezing Spray Advisory, from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT 
  Monday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate
hazardous accumulation of ice on their vessel. During freezing
spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises that you ensure all
lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

303 
WHUS71 KGYX 150717
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
317 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

ANZ150>154-152000-
/O.CON.KGYX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210315T1800Z/
/O.CON.KGYX.UP.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210315T2000Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
317 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft. For the Freezing Spray 
  Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Merrimack River,
  MA out 25 NM including Casco and Penobscot Bay. 

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. 
  For the Freezing Spray Advisory, until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate
hazardous accumulation of ice on their vessel. During freezing
spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises that you ensure all
lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

689 
WHUS71 KGYX 151329
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
929 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

ANZ150>154-152000-
/O.CON.KGYX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210315T1800Z/
/O.CON.KGYX.UP.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210315T2000Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
929 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft. For the Freezing Spray 
  Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Merrimack River, 
  MA out 25 NM including Casco and Penobscot Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. 
  For the Freezing Spray Advisory, until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate
hazardous accumulation of ice on their vessel. During freezing
spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises that you ensure all
lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

727 
WHUS71 KGYX 151605
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
1205 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

ANZ150>154-152000-
/O.EXT.KGYX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210315T2000Z/
/O.CON.KGYX.UP.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210315T2000Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
1205 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 3 feet in the
  bays. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of
  freezing spray.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Merrimack River, 
  MA out 25 NM including Casco and Penobscot Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate
hazardous accumulation of ice on their vessel. During freezing
spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises that you ensure all
lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

070 
WHUS71 KGYX 151606
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
1206 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

ANZ150>154-152000-
/O.CON.KGYX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210315T2000Z/
/O.CON.KGYX.UP.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210315T2000Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
1206 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 3 feet in 
  the bays. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate 
  accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Merrimack River, 
  MA out 25 NM including Casco and Penobscot Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate
hazardous accumulation of ice on their vessel. During freezing
spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises that you ensure all
lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

595 
WHUS71 KGYX 151846
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
246 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

ANZ152>154-160900-
/O.CAN.KGYX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210315T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.SC.Y.0025.210315T1846Z-210316T1000Z/
/O.EXT.KGYX.UP.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210316T1000Z/
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
246 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 
  kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 1 to 4 ft. For the Freezing 
  Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, 
  ME out 25 NM, Casco Bay and Coastal Waters from Cape 
  Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out 25 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Conditions will be hazardous 
  to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate
hazardous accumulation of ice on their vessel. During freezing
spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises that you ensure all
lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ150-151-160900-
/O.CAN.KGYX.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210315T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.SC.Y.0025.210315T1846Z-210316T1600Z/
/O.EXT.KGYX.UP.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210316T1000Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
246 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 kt
  with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 1 to 4 ft. For the Freezing 
  Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME 
  out 25 NM and Penobscot Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until noon EDT Tuesday. 
  For the Freezing Spray Advisory, until 6 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Conditions will be hazardous 
  to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate
hazardous accumulation of ice on their vessel. During freezing
spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises that you ensure all
lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1005 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be cold and windy today as cold air pours out of Canada.
Another cold front arrives on Sunday bringing even colder air
and more wind. Some snow showers are also possible during the
afternoon although significant accumulation is not expected.
Very cold wind chill values will also be observed especially
Sunday night into Monday. Winds finally begin to die down on
Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
gradually rebound during the middle of the week before the next
storm system brings a chance of precipitation by the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM Update...Winds have been on the decrease over the past
couple of hours and have let the Wind Advisory expire as
scheduled. Have also made minor adjustments to near term
temperature and sky forecasts to capture the latest observed
trends. Winds will continue to relax through this afternoon with
mostly sunny skies outside of the mountains.

7am update.. adjusted for current temps and winds. Have
increased PoP over the mountains where snow showers are still
ongoing. Winds are starting to subside with just a few spots
still exceeding 30kts. With the sunrise may see a few more
higher gusts mix down but overall expect the winds to continue
to decrease. Plan to allow the wind advisory to expire as
scheduled.

Prev disc...
An Arctic front is moving through the region this morning
bringing gusty northwesterly winds and brief snow squalls. The
leading edge of the cold air mass has moved out over the coastal
waters, with cold advection continuing in its wake. Radar
indicates a few snow showers remaining in the mountains, with a
moderate squall moving through the midcoast.

A strong pressure gradient remains centered over NH with a 1032 H
over the great lakes and a near 980mb low over coastal Labrador.
This will continue to drive wind gusts to 35-40kts for the next few
hours. Expect winds to begin to subside mid morning as the high
begins to build into the east. A wind advisory will remain in place
for southern NH and southwestern Maine through morning. By afternoon
winds will subside with gust to 20kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Overnight expect the winds to further decrease as the high
builds east. This will allow temperatures to drop. With the
temps aloft reaching around -12C at 850, overnight lows in the
teens north to low 20s south have broad support. There is a
chance for mountain valleys to drop further into the single
digits if the winds can calm soon enough to decouple, but for
this update have stuck with a slightly more mixed and warmer
solution.

Sunday will see a weak vort max drop through the NWly flow, which
may touch off showers in the mountains. Have increased PoP above NBM
to account for this. While Sunday will be relatively cold the March
sun should help to push temperatures above freezing south of the
mountains.  Lurking not far behind however is yet another shot of
cold air, this one poised to bring temps as cold as -25C at 850
dropping into our area for Sunday night.  The result will be a
repeat of last night from Sunday into Monday as cold air,
potentially with leading snow squalls pours into the region from the
northwest and winds once again gust to around 30kts. This time the
low level jet doesn't look quite as strong and expect winds to
remain below wind advisory at this point, although it will need
to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is good agreement on the forecast through about Tuesday as
high pressure builds in from the west and we stay in the cold
air mass. The combination of cold and wind Sunday night into
Monday morning will bring wind chill values below zero area wide
and to 20 below or colder in the north where Wind Chill
Advisories may be needed. Winds gradually subside on Monday with
high pressure moving into the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning. This should set the stage for the coldest night of the
stretch as winds go calm and radiational cooling allows us to
reach the bottom of what this air mass is capable of.
Considering dewpoints will be well below zero that floor for
temperatures is quite low. For now I've gone with mostly lows in
the single digits with subzero readings in northern valleys.
However, if conditions line up well then subzero is possible in
a broader area. With the high moving in from the west, the
western part of the area in particular the valleys of New
Hampshire have the best chance of seeing ideal cooling
conditions and thus the coldest temperatures. 10 below zero is
possible in the coldest spots. Record low temperatures at our
climate sites are actually within range as the records for March
16 are relatively mild compared to other dates nearby. More on
this in the climate section.

After Tuesday we get a good deal more variance among the models.
The source of the uncertainty is a large cut off low out West
which is stuck beneath a ridge over western and central Canada.
Models have always struggled with figuring out when these lows
will finally move east and that has been no exception with this
scenario in recent days. The GFS continues to be the most
aggressive with ejecting waves eastward although this is viewed
with skepticism. The ECMWF and CMC are roughly in a camp
together with a slower progression and this would fit with the
usual trend with such systems. As a result, I tend to favor the
ECMWF solution in general through the extended forecast this
week.

The first wave that attempts a move east is on Tuesday,
potentially arriving in New England Tuesday night. The GFS
maintains this wave the best of the models with some light snow
crossing the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. It is,
however, less aggressive with this than it has been in prior
runs. Meanwhile the ECMWF at least shows a subtle wave
continuing eastward through New England Tuesday night now,
although it does not produce precipitation in our area. While
the GFS is still largely on its own on this, I have a suspicion
that this could end up being a very light precipitation event
in the end with some snow flurries or a dusting of snow
possible, and for now have maintained minimal precipitation
chances of about 20 percent.

Another wave in the northern stream sends the next batch of
Arctic air southward through Canada on Wednesday. Models
generally agree that it is this wave which will pick up the
western low, rejoining it with the northern stream. As mentioned
earlier, the GFS ejects the low quicker, pulling it northeast
through New England or the Saint Lawrence Valley. This would be
a relatively warmer scenario with the low tracking through on
Thursday before the next round of colder air arrives mostly
behind it. The ECMWF and CMC generally agree that the low will
rumble eastward more slowly with the resulting surface low
tracking largely to our south on Friday. This brings the colder
air in before the low tracks by, thus represents a colder
scenario. While the ECMWF and CMC both agree on this broadly,
the ECMWF tracks the low close enough to bring precipitation,
largely in the form of snow, to New England. The CMC tracks it
out to sea far enough south to avoid any precipitation in
northern New England.

With the amount of uncertainty in the long term, I didn't go too
strong on any one scenario, but I did generally favor the ECMWF
view of things. Thus we bring the highest precipitation chances
in Thursday night into Friday, although I have kept them in the
chance range at this stage considering the uncertainty. Weather
type favors snow since we largely favor the more southerly and
delayed track of the low.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Gusty northwesterly winds will continue at around
30-35kts through the first part of the morning before starting
to subside. Expect brief periods of IFR in SNSQ through the next
few hours as cold air continues to push into the region. By
Afternoon winds will begin to subside and VFR with decreasing
NWly flow will continue through Sunday. Another shot of cold air
will arrive Sunday night.

Long Term...Gusty NW winds expected again Sunday night into
Monday, although they will generally be decreasing with time.
Conditions will largely be VFR although some MVFR conditions are
possible NW of the mountains where the NW flow has upslope
component to it. Winds finally calm down Monday evening. There's
an outside chance of some light snow Tuesday night. Although
this is not expected to amount to much it could bring a period
of MVFR ceilings primarily to southern parts of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...An arctic front is crossing the waters with winds
gusting to 35kts in its wake and a Gale warning remains in
effect. Winds will subside somewhat overnight tonight, with SCA
likely needed. Another arctic front will cross the waters late
Sunday with Gales once again possible.

Long Term...Strong NW flow continues Sunday night into Monday
but will gradually be decreasing with time. The combination of
cold and wind could lead to a period of moderate freezing spray
through Monday morning. High pressure crosses the Gulf of Maine
on Tuesday providing a break in the winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several rounds of Arctic cold will keep temperatures below
normal for several days. By early next week we could challenge
record low temperatures. The coldest temperatures will likely
be Tuesday morning and if conditions align just right then
record low temperatures are possible. Here's a look at the
record lows for that day.

               Tuesday, March 16, 2021
            REC LOW    PROB OF BREAKING
PORTLAND    5 in 1956  Low chance of breaking record
CONCORD     0 in 1869  Low chance of breaking record
AUGUSTA     4 in 1956  Low chance of breaking record

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150>154.

&&

NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Kimble

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
306 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021

MEZ012-013-018>020-023>025-033-NHZ004-006-008>010-012>015-140815-
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Coastal York-
Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Interior Cumberland Highlands-
Northern Carroll-Southern Carroll-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-
Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
306 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire, central New
Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

NW winds increase again on Sunday as more Arctic air pours into the
area. Wind gusts may approach Wind Advisory levels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ014-021-022-026>028-NHZ003-005-007-011-140815-
Southern Somerset-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Northern Grafton-Southern Grafton-Sullivan-Cheshire-
306 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine, central
New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

NW winds will gust 35 to 45 mph today. While this is just short of
Wind Advisory levels, a few tree branches could snap and loose
objects will get tossed around.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

NW winds increase again on Sunday as more Arctic air pours into the
area. Wind gusts may approach Wind Advisory levels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-140815-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
306 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

NW gales are possible again on Sunday as more Arctic air pours into
the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ007>009-NHZ001-002-140815-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-
306 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Maine, western
Maine and northern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

NW winds will gust 35 to 45 mph today. While this is just short of
Wind Advisory levels, a few tree branches could snap and loose
objects will get tossed around.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

NW winds increase again on Sunday as more Arctic air pours into the
area. Wind gusts may approach Wind Advisory levels. The combination
of very cold temperatures and strong winds could lead to wind chill
values of 20 below or colder Sunday night into Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.