Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Guam

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
630 AM ChST Thu Feb 25 2021

.Marianas Synopsis...
Skies are mostly cloudy with moderate to fresh trade winds across the
Marianas, but satellite shows mainly high clouds and only isolated
showers over Guam and Rota, but a shear line is pushing clouds and
scattered showers across Tinian and Saipan. Combined seas range from
5 to 6 feet at the buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
Continued dry weather is expected for Guam and Rota the next few
days, but GFS and the WRF model both show scattered showers for
Tinian and Saipan this morning. Showers should taper off to isolated
and light this afternoon and evening as the shear line wobbles
briefly away, but then both models bring another episode of scattered
showers late tonight and Friday morning for the two northern islands.
After that, the shear line retreats back to the northwest for good,
and dry weather returns for everybody for the weekend through the
middle of next week.

&&

.Marine...
Models indicate a 4-6 foot east swell persisting through the weekend,
but on Monday a new north swell enters the coastal waters and builds
next week. This may result in hazardous surf along north facing reefs
at some point next week, but for now the rip risk will be moderate
through at least the weekend.

&&

.Fire weather...
The KBDI continues its slow but steady climb through the middle 600s,
and with no prospect of wetting rain for Guam any time soon, the
threat of wild fires will continue to increase.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Trade winds continue over eastern Micronesia with weak troughs
passing through. A weak trough just west of Kosrae will bring
scattered showers to Kosrae today, and tonight for Pohnpei. Showers
will be light to moderate with mid levels remaining dry. 24 hr precip
amounts over the last few days were around 0.10 inches.

On Friday, northeasterly swells look to be high enough to give
Kosrae 8 to 9 ft surf. For the last two nights tabular wave model
showed east-northeast swell of 7 ft and 8 sec. Combined seas look to
bump up a foot by Friday but remain just below small craft advisory
criteria.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Scattered showers tonight for Chuuk as a weak trough tracks across
Pohnpei and continues west.

Southeast of Palau, a near-equatorial surface trough is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms which will come into Palau
coastal waters later tonight. A weak upper-level diffluence pattern
also moves into the area so added isolated thunderstorms for today
and Friday. Not much weather for Yap for the next few days.

Northerly swells come into Yap and Palau coastal waters at the
beginning of next week. It looks like the last few runs on the
tabular wave model is consistent at 6 ft and 12 seconds on Tuesday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

Marianas: Middlebrooke
Micronesia: Hong