River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

014 
WGUS82 KGSP 161702
FLSGSP

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1202 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  South Fork Catawba River At Lowell affecting Gaston County.

For the South Fork Catawba River...including Lowell...elevated river 
levels are forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

When it is safe to do so, please report flooding threatening roads 
or property to the National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg 
by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on our 
Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message 
should describe the specific location where impacts occurred and the 
depth of flooding observed.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 1200 AM EST.

&&


NCC071-170500-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210217T0500Z/
/LOWN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1202 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the South Fork Catawba River At Lowell.
* Until late tonight.
* At 11:45 PM EST Monday the stage was 8.4 feet.
* Action stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.1 feet 
  this morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Action/Advisory Stage. South Fork Catawba 
  River floodwaters begin to enter Riverside Park in Cramerton.


&&

LAT...LON 3537 8126 3537 8108 3518 8102 3518 8110

$$

WJM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
926 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will bring heavy rain with a chance of
thunderstorms tonight. In the wake of this system, drier and less
cloudy weather will be seen Tuesday and Wednesday, but clouds and
similarly damp weather return for one more round Wednesday night
into Friday. Cool and dry high pressure will build into the region
over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 920 pm EST: The low center moving along the lingering Piedmont
wedge front will zip up east of the forecast area very shortly late
this evening. This should largely end the convective chances along
the I-77 corridor, with just lingering showers along the trailing
surface cold front to the west. This will lead to a gradual
reduction in PoP values from the west for the rest of the overnight,
but with lingering solid chances of increasingly wintry ptypes near
the TN border in developing W to SW upslope flow and cold advection.
The combination of snow, with patchy sleet and freezing rain near
the TN border, along with temperatures dipping to the freezing mark
farther from the TN border, will permit slippery road conditions to
develop overnight from the extreme NE GA mountains through the NC
mountains where temps reach freezing. This is addressed with the
Special Weather Statement issued earlier this evening. Regarding
winds, the low-level jet is quickly transiting east of the southern
Appalachians, and the high elevation Wind Advisory will be permitted
to expire on schedule at midnight.

Otherwise, expect a generally SW flow aloft through Tuesday, but
enough dry air will filter in behind the front, and the low-level
flow becomes westerly enough Tuesday morning, that we should be able
to scour/mix out the remaining cool pool east of the Blue Ridge.
Expect we should finally see a decent amount of sunshine in the
afternoon away from the upslope parts along the TN border. Temps may
only make it back to normal, though, with a breezy WSW wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...The latest guidance has trended a little
colder with the next storm system that will affect our area
Wednesday night thru early Friday. This results in an increase in
concerns for wintry precip accums with the onset of the precip
across portions of the NC mountains and east across the I-40
corridor.

Plenty of energy will dive into the base of a persistent longwave
trough over the Southern Plains Wednesday, while an upper ridge
holds on just off the East Coast. Deep layer southwesterly
flow will bring moisture atop the FA from the top down starting
Wednesday aftn, with the low-levels moistening up quickly Wednesday
evening. At the sfc, high pressure will strengthen and shift
east across the Great Lakes, reaching ~1034 mb just north of NY
by 12z Thursday. This high will be cold and dry, and with precip
developing within strong upglide and upslope flow with produce a
fairly strong hybrid CAD. The 12z NAM seems to be an outlier in both
the LLJ and warm nose atop this wedge, and even it locks in some
sub-freezing temps across the eastern Escarpment from roughly the
Black Mountains north. Temps will also flirt with freezing along
and north of I-40 across the NC foothills and NW Piedmont. With
some solid QPF during the 06-18z time frame, it wouldn't be hard
to get 0.25" or more higher ice accretions, if the cold temps
verify. With the models trending cold with both the wedge and the
warm nose, could see a mix of sleet and snow with the onset as
well, across the higher elevations of the NC mountains. The GFS
and Canadian models seem to be trending toward the ECMWF, which
has the sfc low track roughly along the I-20 corridor near the
wedge boundary Thursday, and this may keep warm nose temps down
a bit. At least the severe threat will remain to our south, and
perhaps QPF totals will also be limited. So the biggest concern
with this system now seems to be ice (and to a lesser extent,
sleet) accums Wednesday night thru midday Thursday). It's still
too far out for any Winter Storm Watch considerations, but the
wording will be bumped up in the HWO. Even though sbCAPE looks
to remain to our south, elevated instability will likely support
thunderstorm chances, especially across the southeastern half of
the FA. Temps continue to trend down within the wedge, but are
still expected to warm above freezing during the aftn in all areas.

Precip should start to taper off west to east Thursday night, as
the low presure system reaches the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters by
12z Friday. A little wrap-around moisture will keep a lingering
NW flow snow shower event thru the day Friday, and possibly into
Friday night. But moisture on the forecast soundings is quite
shallow. It's not looking like much snow accums. The rest of the
area should see clearing skies and breezy conditions with slightly
below normal temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM Monday...Cool and dry high pressure builds into the
area from the west under a quasi-zonal upper level flow for the
weekend. The next front looks to approach the forecast area Sunday
night, trailing from a weak low tracking thru the Great Lakes.
Thicknesses would support mainly rain showers and possibly snow
above 3500 ft. But QPF should be low, as the front passes quickly.
Temps will start out a few categories below normal Saturday morning,
with teens in the mountains and low to mid 20s across the Piedmont.
Then gradually moderate to near normal by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Thunderstorms have moved east of the terminal
area, with just lingering showers along the cold front approaching
from the west. Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to continue at times,
but with some variability with mixing from the showers. Easterly
flow will become southerly with the cold front arrival and passage
early overnight, with gusty southwest winds with the cold advection
and mixing post fropa. KAVL will turn sharply NW very quickly
overnight. Low restrictions will gradually lift and scatter through
the later morning hours as westerly flow develops and gusts
continue. Anticipate some gusts well into the 20s at times, with
near 30 kt gusts possible at KAVL Tuesday. Any mixed ptypes in
westerly upslope flow overnight into Tuesday morning will remain
west of KAVL.

Outlook: Expect VFR condition through Wednesday with a brief shot of
drier air.  Moisture and restrictions return again Wednesday night
through Thursday, followed by drying on Friday and into the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High  89%     Med   79%     High  86%     High 100%
KGSP       High  83%     High  86%     High  95%     High 100%
KAVL       High  85%     Med   73%     Med   72%     High 100%
KHKY       High  88%     High  83%     Med   74%     High 100%
KGMU       High  84%     High  87%     High  97%     High 100%
KAND       Med   77%     Med   77%     High  84%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until midnight EST tonight for
     NCZ048>052-058-059.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1204 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>503-505-507-509-170515-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1204 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains, northern
foothills, and northwest Piedmont of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Snow showers transitioning to sleet and freezing rain is likely
Wednesday night into Thursday as a strong low pressure system
approaches from the west. Enough accumulating ice will be possible by
early Thursday to produce hazardous driving conditions. Ice
accumulations could also bring down trees and branches, leading to
power outages.

A periods of heavy rain is then possible, mainly across the
mountains of North Carolina, from Thursday afternoon through early
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ056-057-068>072-082-504-506-508-510-
SCZ001>014-019-170515-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1204 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
615 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-161200-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls,
Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut,
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo,
Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka,
Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville,
Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Black Mountain, Candler,
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin,
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers
615 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...BLACK ICE AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...

Temperatures will fall rapidly to the freezing mark overnight as a
cold front sweeps east of the mountains. With water from the
recent rainfall lingering on area roadways, and light wintry
precipitation possible overnight along the Tennessee border
counties of the North Carolina mountains, roads may become
slippery toward daybreak.

If you must travel during the morning hours across Georgia
mountain locations from Clarkesville to Clayton and surrounding
areas, or in locations across the North Carolina mountains, use
extreme caution. Be on the lookout for black ice on roadways,
especially bridges and overpasses. Allow extra travel time and
stopping distance.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
626 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

NCZ068-070-SCZ008-009-160000-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-
626 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...SOUTH
CENTRAL GASTON...NORTHWESTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM EST...

At 626 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Gaffney, or 4 miles west of Hickory Grove, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
York, Clover, Blacksburg, Grover, Sharon, Hickory Grove, Smyrna,
Kings Mountain State Park, Crowders Mountain State Park and Kings
Mountain.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8138 3499 8162 3527 8147 3513 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 213DEG 21KT 3498 8149

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
716 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

GAZ029-SCZ011-012-019-160045-
Elbert GA-Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
716 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT...
SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EST...

At 716 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 15 miles southwest of
Abbeville to 17 miles southeast of Greenwood, and moving northeast at
20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Ninety Six, Due West, Cross
Hill, Cokesbury, Hodges, Troy and Lake Greenwood State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3399 8215 3397 8218 3402 8224
      3397 8231 3406 8233 3406 8244 3408 8248
      3407 8253 3401 8260 3403 8269 3438 8240
      3431 8189 3420 8194 3418 8191 3416 8191
      3413 8187 3409 8192 3396 8201 3395 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 210DEG 19KT 3404 8259 3395 8203

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
806 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

SCZ014-160130-
Chester SC-
806 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM EST...

At 806 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Chester, or 6 miles southwest of Richburg, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Fort Lawn, Richburg, Cornwell and Edgemoor.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8089 3455 8102 3455 8109 3462 8123
      3482 8110 3482 8094 3480 8088 3475 8088
      3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 210DEG 49KT 3465 8109

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1010 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

NCZ068-SCZ008-160500-
Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-
1010 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN CLEVELAND AND NORTHERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

Previous rainfall across the area has elevated stream levels and may
produce minor flooding over the next couple hours. A report of minor
flooding associated with Hickory Creek in southern Cleveland county
has been received and this stream may remain out of its banks over
the next couple hours before receding.

LAT...LON 3514 8140 3515 8174 3527 8170 3527 8141
      3514 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 195DEG 3KT 3526 8150

KRENTZ