Frost Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

941 
WWUS72 KGSP 130222
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1022 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-131030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0005.210513T0400Z-210513T1200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, and Asheville
1022 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 36 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Avery, Madison, Yancey, Mitchell, Haywood and Buncombe 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

JPT

168 
WWUS72 KGSP 130716
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
316 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-131200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210513T1200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, and Asheville
316 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 30s early this
  morning will result in areas of frost formation.

* WHERE...Avery, Madison, Yancey, Mitchell, Haywood and Buncombe 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

HG

014 
WWUS72 KGSP 131158
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
758 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-131300-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210513T1200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, and Asheville
758 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures continue to slowly warm this morning. This will help
frost melt, ending the threat.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1207 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Another low pressure riding along a stationary front as it
crosses northern Florida may bring a little more rain on Thursday.
Drier high pressure will build into the region from the north by
Thursday night and continue through the weekend with a slow warming
trend. Expect warmer weather next week with chances of rain
returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of noon EDT Wednesday:  Area of rain beginning to get lighter
from west to east.  As the afternoon progresses, rain will continue
to decline from west to east, exiting past Charlotte by 5pm.
Rainfall totals from gauges and radar estimates have been running
from 0.3" in the foothills to a little over an inch in southern
Elbert, Abbeville, and Greenwood Counties.

With rain and northwesterly flow, temperatures will continue to be
very moderate with the highs of the day set last night.  With cool
surface airmass, mixing is only to about 950mb, but low-level winds
peak around 900mb at 25 to 30kts. Outside the mountains, are seeing
(and expect to see through this afternoon) winds of 15 to 20kts with
gusts to 25kts, or so.

There is some modest bust potential in the temperature forecast if
the moist layer thins enough in profiles to permit some heating,
especially across the northern tier and in the mountains. Breezy
northeasterly flow will develop as well in the wedge layer today,
with gusts to near 30 mph at times as mixing starts up.

Zonal flow continues tonight, with another round of upper divergence
crossing the region from the west. However, there is much less
moisture in the profiles tonight and mainly dry conditions are
expected. Higher elevations of the northern mountains could well see
temperatures in the middle to upper 30s, and a patchy frost mention
has been included in the forecast and the HWO. At this point,
confidence is too low on widespread frost for an Advisory, but this
will need to be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...with the shortwave creeping out of
the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night and into Thursday, we should
see mid-level forcing already beginning to shift south and east,
with diminishing coverage over our CWA.  The GFS puts it all well
outside our forecast area by daybreak, while the ECMWF keeps
a wider swath across the Carolinas owing to a somewhat steeper
height gradient ahead of the trough.  Accordingly, the GFS depicts
Canadian high pressure already building into the region by 12Z, with
dry northerly flow inducing continued CAA, and precipitation well to
the south of our counties; meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps at least light
precip in the forecast through early Friday.

Thursday night, the trough axis tracks offshore, and heights begin
to recover, so we should see decreased forcing throughout Friday.
Ripples of energy traverse the area on Friday and into Friday
night...the broader pattern of gently-increasing heights comes as a
potent ridge pushes out of the western CONUS; a few embedded weak
shortwaves keep that meager forcing in play all through the day.
This feature has become less and less pronounced from run to
run anyway, and no longer appears at all in the latest ECMWF.
In any case, we should be so dry most of Friday, that the odds
are slim of seeing any rainfall outside of the mountains, where
terrain enhancement could aid in generating some light precip from
what little moisture is available.  Otherwise, the surface high
presses east across the Great Lakes region Friday and Friday night,
spurring deep subsidence across the Mid-Atlantic and farther south,
and the cP air maintains low PWATs through the end of the short.

In light of continued CAA through most of the period, anticipating
Thursday's temps to be 8-10 degrees below normal.  Will see a bit of
a rebound on Friday, as clearing skies allow for increased afternoon
heating...but still 6-8 degrees below normal across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...ridging is in place on Saturday,
persisting until the axis passes east late Sunday into Sunday night.
The associated surface high passes to the east on Saturday night,
with the associated wind shift to southerly flow inducing WAA
and a flux of moisture into the region.  So, we can anticipate
at least some high clouds rolling in on Monday, but as models
have dialed back a bit on the available moisture and limited the
midlevel forcing present, have dialed back accordingly on the PoPs
for Sunday night/Monday.

On Tuesday, a Z500 vort lobe crosses the area, and the associated
surface cold front passes through that afternoon.  This comes with
modest SBCAPE and low-level wind shear...really our first hint of
any convective activity in this forecast, but there's far too much
uncertainty this far out to make any real assessment.  So, for now,
going with chance PoPs on Tuesday around a nebulously-timed cold
frontal passage.

With good insolation and the onset of WAA, temps should creep
upward from Saturday onward, likely reaching near-normal values by
Monday for the first time in days.  On Tuesday, temps may remain
near normal or they may fall again...depending on the timing of
the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Increasing moisture arriving from the west
early this morning is blossoming into widespread shower coverage
across the terminal forecast area. VFR cigs early will trend down
into lowering MVFR bases, with TEMPO IFR cigs and visibility
possible under the heaviest showers. Although the forcing for the
showers moves east this afternoon, enough low-level moisture will
linger to provide for only slow, gradual improvement in the cigs
through late day. Winds will be a big story this morning east of the
mountains, with a barrier jet developing in the northeast flow at 1
to 3 kft and providing some gusts of 20 to 30 kt with mixing through
the morning hours. Anticipate less wind at KAVL and KHKY, with the
gradient and gusts diminishing throughout the area this afternoon.
Cloud bases return to VFR cigs for tonight, with lighter NE flow at
the foothill and Piedmont sites, and light southerly flow developing
at KAVL.

Outlook: Gradual drying is expected Thursday through Friday, with
mostly VFR conditions likely to persist through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       High  94%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  83%     High  85%     High  87%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  92%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  83%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  94%     High  90%     High  87%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  87%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
246 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-131900-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
246 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-051-056>059-062>065-068>072-
082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-131900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Swain-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
246 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.