Alert archive / North Carolina / Freeze Warnings in 2021
Freeze Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this freeze warning at Nov 4, 2021, 3:23 AM EDT for 12 counties in North Carolina; York County, South Carolina. It took effect at Nov 5, 2021, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 4, 2021, 3:23 AM EDT (07:23 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 5, 2021, 2:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Nov 5, 2021, 10:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Counties Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Rowan County, NC, York County, SC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1768 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 68 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 115 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
527 WWUS72 KGSP 040723 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 323 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-072-502-504-506-041530- /O.UPG.KGSP.FZ.A.0004.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.W.0005.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Cabarrus- Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Concord, Kannapolis, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, and Glenwood 323 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$ NCZ070-SCZ009-041530- /O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.W.0005.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Gaston-York- Including the cities of Gastonia, Catawba, and Rock Hill 323 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 expected. * WHERE...In South Carolina, York County. In North Carolina, Gaston County. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$ NCZ071-082-508-SCZ008-013-014-041530- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Mecklenburg-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-Cherokee-Union SC-Chester- Including the cities of Charlotte, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Gaffney, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, and Great Falls 323 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 31 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In South Carolina, Cherokee, Union SC and Chester Counties. In North Carolina, Mecklenburg, Union NC and Greater Rutherford Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ MPR
5 follow-up statements
098 WWUS72 KGSP 041504 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1104 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-072-502-504-506-SCZ009-050000- /O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0005.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Cabarrus-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-York- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Concord, Kannapolis, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Catawba, and Rock Hill 1104 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$ NCZ071-082-508-SCZ008-013-014-050000- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Mecklenburg-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-Cherokee-Union SC-Chester- Including the cities of Charlotte, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Gaffney, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, and Great Falls 1104 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 31 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In South Carolina, Cherokee, Union SC and Chester Counties. In North Carolina, Mecklenburg, Union NC and Greater Rutherford Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$
489 WWUS72 KGSP 041821 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 221 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-072-502-504-506-SCZ009-050200- /O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0005.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Cabarrus-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-York- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Concord, Kannapolis, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Catawba, and Rock Hill 221 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$ NCZ510-SCZ001>007-010>012-019-050200- /O.EXA.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens- Greenwood- Including the cities of Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, Slater-Marietta, Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six 221 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ NCZ071-082-508-SCZ008-013-014-050200- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Mecklenburg-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-Cherokee-Union SC-Chester- Including the cities of Charlotte, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Gaffney, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, and Great Falls 221 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 31 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In South Carolina, Cherokee, Union SC and Chester Counties. In North Carolina, Mecklenburg, Union NC and Greater Rutherford Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$
668 WWUS72 KGSP 050156 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 956 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-072-502-504-506-SCZ009-050830- /O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0005.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Cabarrus-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-York- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Concord, Kannapolis, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Catawba, and Rock Hill 956 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina east of the Blue Ridge, plus York County, South Carolina. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$ NCZ071-082-508-510-SCZ001>008-010>014-019-050830- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.211105T0600Z-211105T1400Z/ Mecklenburg-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Including the cities of Charlotte, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, Slater-Marietta, Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six 956 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Upstate South Carolina, plus the Thermal Belt areas of the North Carolina foothills, and a portion of Metro Charlotte. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ Wimberley
661 WWUS72 KGSP 050725 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 325 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-072-502-504-506-SCZ009-051400- /O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-211105T1400Z/ Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Cabarrus-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-York- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Concord, Kannapolis, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Catawba, and Rock Hill 325 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina east of the Blue Ridge, plus York County, South Carolina. * WHEN...Through 10 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$ NCZ071-082-508-510-SCZ001>008-010>014-019-051400- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-211105T1400Z/ Mecklenburg-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Including the cities of Charlotte, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, Slater-Marietta, Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six 325 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Upstate South Carolina, plus the Thermal Belt areas of the North Carolina foothills, and a portion of Metro Charlotte. * WHEN...Through 10 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ ARK
029 WWUS72 KGSP 051340 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 940 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-072-502-504-506-SCZ009-051445- /O.EXP.KGSP.FZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-211105T1400Z/ Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Cabarrus-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-York- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Concord, Kannapolis, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Catawba, and Rock Hill 940 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 ...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... Temperatures continue to warm across the area and will be above freezing soon. Therefore, the warning will expire on time. $$ NCZ071-082-508-510-SCZ001>008-010>014-019-051445- /O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-211105T1400Z/ Mecklenburg-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Including the cities of Charlotte, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, Slater-Marietta, Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six 940 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... Temperatures continue to warm across the area and will be above the frost range soon. Therefore, the advisory will expire on time. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this freeze warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this freeze warning went out at Nov 4, 3:21 AM EDT, 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 4, 3:21 AM EDT, 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
321 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly surface high pressure, along with wet conditions, will
persist across the region for much of today, but with drying
developing tonight. Dry high pressure will then become more dominant
Friday through the weekend. Morning temperatures will continue to
flirt with frost and freeze conditions each morning through Sunday,
but with maximum temperatures steadily rebounding to near normal
temperatures by Sunday afternoon. Dry and warm high pressure will
continue through the middle of next week, with temperatures surging
well above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday: The last few hours have seen
scattered showers break out across the NC/SC border and points
south, as a modest 250mb jet streak pairs with a few ripples of
vort energy crossing the CWA to induce halfway decent synoptic
forcing. That jetlet will generally move eastward and is progged
to exit the forecast area by perhaps 08Z. That said,
increasingly robust DPVA forcing should be shifting north and
east out of northern Georgia within the next couple of hours, so
an abundance of midlevel moisture should allow increasing
showers to impact the SC Upstate and many of our NC mountain
counties. Would expect activity before dawn to be steady, and
broad in coverage, but light, as model soundings suggest that
basically everywhere below 850mb will be fairly dry, so the bulk
of what precipitation forms will struggle to reach the surface.
Much as predicted, all precip across the mountains is falling
as rain, except for at the highest elevations. Dewpoints seem to
have crept upward a bit, which has limited wet-bulbing compared
to earlier forecasts, and consequently should raise min temps
tonight by a solid degree across the mountains. All that to say,
while an inch of snow is well within reason across the higher
elevations of the Balsams and Smokies, the odds of much frozen
precip mixing below 3500ft seems ever lower. Could still see
isolated black ice developing on roadways, but still only at
high elevations.
Evaporative cooling should drive trends Thursday. Despite moderate
WAA in place by dawn, cursory isentropic analysis suggests that most
of this will simply glide over top of a weak high-pressure dome,
resulting in steady precipitation well into the afternoon. This,
in turn, will further cool the low-levels even as weak northeasterly
CAA continues beneath the 850mb level. Have adjusted max temps
for Thursday a bit downward in response to this.
Thursday evening, a wave of low-level CAA will likely scour out
whatever shallow wedging has developed. This will allow profiles
to dry out again from the bottom up, and the overnight hours will
likely see rapidly diminishing cloud cover across the NC Piedmont
and SC Upstate. In these locations, temps will be allowed to
drop quite a bit in response to radiative cooling, and accordingly
most of our Piedmont/Upstate counties are at risk of frost/freeze
through dawn Friday. Elsewhere, cloud cover should hang on long
enough to limit temps and frost threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 am EDT Thursday: The 500 mb height field is expected to
remain somewhat "baggy" west of the base of the southern
Appalachians on Friday, indicating some measure of deepening in a
southern stream wave near the eastern Gulf Coast. However, the
resulting cyclogenesis near the southeast coastline now appears to
form even farther southeast Friday through Saturday than indicated
previously, so the expectation is for any moisture to remain shunted
southeast of our forecast area through the short term period. Thus,
the dominant feature will be drying north to northeast flow from
1030 mb surface high pressure centered over Pennsylvania and nosing
southward into the region. Given the chilly thicknesses in place,
this may mean something of a frost/freeze threat each morning from
early Friday to early Sunday. Friday is already addressed with the
suite of frost/freeze hazards issued starting tonight.
Temperatures and associated frost/freeze concerns are less certain
heading into the weekend. The surface high center should steadily
settle southward into the region which would normally lead to better
radiating conditions each night. However, there could be a lingering
NE flow gradient that keeps some mixing up over eastern sections
during the nighttime hours. Plus, it's possible that a Friday
morning freeze may end up shutting off a good chunk of western NC
counties, and possibly even some eastern Upstate counties, which
would preclude the need for more frost/freeze products there
over the weekend. Will keep a mention in the HWO for now.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 am EDT Thursday: Upper level heights will rise in earnest
from the west for the latter half of the weekend, with a fairly
stout 585 dm H5 ridge arriving over the Deep South by Monday. The
upper ridge will move more squarely over the southeast coast on
Tuesday, with a continued warm up across the region. Dry high
pressure will dominate at the surface with maximum temperatures
warming to near climo by Sunday afternoon, 5 to 7 degrees above
climo by Monday, and 6 to 9 degrees above normal by Tuesday - with
plenty of low 70s east of the mountains.
Height falls across the Plains should lead to a steady breakdown of
the southeast ridge on Wednesday. A cold front may approach from the
northwest late in the period, but will keep Wednesday dry and warm
for now.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: At present all TAF sites have VFR cigs.
KAVL has briefly dropped to MVFR a few times but quickly rebounded.
With moist upglide in place and set to continue well into the day
Thursday as in situ wedging continues to develop, light precip
should begin in earnest before dawn and continue well into Thursday
afternoon. The general trend for the Upstate sites and KAVL is to
see cigs drop to MVFR a couple hours before dawn, then drop to IFR
by late morning. Even the most optimistic model guidance suggests
that most sites will see a few hours of LIFR cigs beginning in
the early afternoon, then rebounding to IFR/MVFR by the evening.
Same general trend for KCLT, but delayed an hour or two compared
to other sites. All sites will see -DZ/-RA through at least
00Z Friday, with VCSH warranted through the end of the period.
Winds will stay out of the northeast throughout the TAF period.
Outlook: Restrictions should rebound to VFR by Friday morning, with
high pressure building in through the weekend. Inactive weather
should continue well into next week.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>070-072-502-504-506.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for NCZ071-082-
508.
SC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for SCZ009.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for SCZ008-013-
014.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...MPRHazardous weather outlook, Nov 3, 8:35 PM EDT, 6 hours 48 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 835 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 NCZ033-048>053-059-063-064-501-503-505-041200- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe- Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Caldwell Mountains- Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- 835 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Light snow accumulations are expected for elevations at or above 3500 feet in portions of the North Carolina mountains tonight, primarily along ridgetop locations. Elevations above 4000 feet could see 1-2 inches of snow by daybreak. As temperatures approach freezing overnight tonight into early Thursday morning across these locations, slippery spots could develop on wet roadways. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The light snow will taper off Thursday morning, but it could mix with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle before ending. No ice accumulations are expected. Slippery roadways could persist through mid-morning in isolated areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ058-062-065-070-071-082-507>510- SCZ001>014-019-041200- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Graham-Macon-Henderson- Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union NC-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford- Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville- Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- 835 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-072-502-504-506-041200- Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Cabarrus- Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- 835 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Freeze Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. JMP
The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 3:23 AM EDT | Frost Advisory | GSP | Mecklenburg, Polk, Rutherford, Union | 31 hr |
Nearby
Freeze Warnings in North Carolina, 2021Freeze Warnings in South Carolina, 2021Every freeze warning in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.