Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Grand Junction, CO

290 
WWUS85 KGJT 090254
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
854 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

COZ200-202-090400-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-210509T0300Z/
Little Snake Forecast Area-White River Forecast Area-
854 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 200 AND 202...

Winds are diminishing and relative humidity is beginning to
recover. Critical fire weather criteria are no longer being met 
so will let the Red Flag Warning expire as scheduled.

$$

COZ203-090400-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-210509T0300Z/
Lower Colorado River-
854 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 203 BELOW 8500 FEET...

Winds are diminishing and relative humidity is beginning to
recover. Critical fire weather criteria are no longer being met 
so will let the Red Flag Warning expire as scheduled.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1200 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021

Winds are diminishing and relative humidity is beginning to
recover. Critical fire weather criteria are no longer being met.
Thus, have allowed the ongoing Red Flag Warning to expire as
scheduled.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021

Classic high EML sounding at GJT this morning along with the
accas on top. The wave that was driving the more condensed cu/virga
field has moved east of the divide and don't think we have much
chance of getting much to the ground except stronger wind gusts.
There will be some gratuity PoPs in place but even the chances on
Saturday withe passage of the upper system and associated cold
front don't seem to be as good as before. The strong mixing has
pushed some winds above 40 mph in spots and pushed temperatures up
to well above normal. The upper trough and surface front are
moving through eastern NV attm and really not much more than thin
band of organized clouds. These features arrive to our far NW CWA
near sunrise and will progress over the divide not long after
mid-day. There will be a focus for precipitation along these
convergent features as they move through and some post frontal
convection due to increased instability but this isn't looking
like a soaker system like we need. That will not arrive until
later in the forecast. Tried to make some of the timing of
precipitation more in line with the frontal passage with some
chances added back to the Southwest. This system will drop
temperatures back more in line to normal for Saturday as well.
Precipitation should quickly die off by sunset with a quiet night
and increasing high cloudiness in store for early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1159 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021

Model solutions has certainly come more into agreement over the
course of the last few model runs. Unfortunately, they are agreeing
on a drier solution. The GFS/GEFS have come around the ECMWF
solution of the base of the trough tracking north of Utah and
Colorado, no longer producing a cutoff low over the Four Corners. In
fact, the deterministic GFS barely produces a cutoff low at all.
This is quite different from yesterday's run. Additionally,
deterministic and model solutions also agree that this system will
be progressive as it crosses over eastern Utah and western Colorado,
limiting the possible time frame of precipitation. At this time, the
models are indicating precipitation will begin Monday afternoon and
come to an end by Tuesday morning for all areas save along the
Divide. Under northwest flow on the backside of this system, the
northern and central mountains will likely continue to see rain and
snow showers through Tuesday night before finally drying out. The
higher elevations in the central and northern mountains will be
favored for several inches of snow with this system.

Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees below normal through Tuesday as
this system works its way through. From Wednesday onward, a warming
trend is forecast, as another ridge of high pressure is expected to
build in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021

VFR conditions in place and should dominate the forecast over the
next 24 hours. A cold front will pass through the area with
winds expected ahead of and behind the front...gusting at times
above 25 mph in many locations. Precipitation is most likely near
the frontal passage but looks fairly unorganized at this point so
no timing confidence placed in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

UPDATE...MDM
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
436 AM MDT Fri May 7 2021

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-081045-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
436 AM MDT Fri May 7 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong southwest winds, above normal temperatures and low relative
humidity combined with later than normal green-up will bring
critical fire weather conditions to much of western Colorado
below 8,500 feet. In addition, isolated thunderstorms are possible
over the higher elevations of the San Juan, Elk and Sawatch
mountains this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions are possible through Sunday.
Light mountain snow may return to the northern and central
mountains early next week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon/evening beginning Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.