Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Hastings, NE

546 
WWUS53 KGID 250351
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1051 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

NEC121-125-143-250400-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-210825T0400Z/
Nance NE-Merrick NE-Polk NE-
1051 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL NANCE...NORTHEASTERN MERRICK AND NORTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTIES...

At 1051 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Silver Creek,
or 17 miles west of Columbus, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Silver Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 9777 4139 9783 4145 9770 4140 9770
      4139 9760 4133 9760 4133 9758 4136 9752
      4137 9745 4139 9737 4131 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 252DEG 19KT 4135 9768 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JCB

387 
WWUS53 KGID 250357
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

NEC121-125-143-250406-
/O.EXP.KGID.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-210825T0400Z/
Nance NE-Merrick NE-Polk NE-
1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL NANCE...
NORTHEASTERN MERRICK AND NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
1100 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4126 9777 4139 9783 4145 9770 4140 9770
      4139 9760 4133 9760 4133 9758 4136 9752
      4137 9745 4139 9737 4131 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 238DEG 49KT 4135 9768 

$$

JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Hot/warm and humid conditions and occasional thunderstorm chances
are the main themes of this forecast.

Overview...
Hot and humid conditions this afternoon will give way to slightly
cooler, but still warm and humid, conditions for Wed. Temps look
to tick back up for Thu and continue into the weekend until a cold
front moves through at some point Sat eve/night. Thunderstorm chcs
appear fairly limited in coverage and intensity for at least the
next 24-36 hrs. Better chcs arrive Thu eve/night and again Sat
night with the next cold front.

Forecast details...
For the rest of today into tonight...the forecast remains largely
on track from this morning. Heat indices have risen into the
100-104 from the Tri Cities S and E...but even ODX has climbed to
around 102F. We still have another 1-2 hrs of heating, but we may
wind up a bit short of 105F for NW portions of the ongoing Heat
Advisory. However, still believe it is warranted as winds are
pretty lgt at 10 MPH, or less, under full sunshine. So feeling the
full brunt of the heat and humidity with nothing but sunset to
provide much relief through this eve.

We've had some iso/weak, elevated convection near and N of BBW to
OLU line much of the day...but even this has largely shifted N of
the CWA over past hr. Tstms chcs going forward thru tonight are
pretty uncertain/conditional, owing to weak upper forcing and very
warm mid level temps (~14C at H7). There remains a pretty large
spread in short-term, hi-res model guidance regarding tstm
coverage and intensity, further illustrating the low
confidence/nebulous forcing environment we're in right now (which
is common for late summer). Think best chcs (relatively speaking)
for some iso tstms over next 6 hrs will be over far NW portions of
CWA, near a weak confluence zone/trough axis, as it shifts ever
so slightly SE towards the primary low level moisture axis. Tds,
for example, range from 58 at BBW to 73 at GRI. Another potential
area would be near MCK near sfc low/triple point. Both these areas
could be somewhat supported by weak shortwave seen on WV moving
from CO into W NE. However, as mentioned above, warm mid level
temps could suppress activity altogether, and latest SPC
mesoanalysis shows strong CINH remaining in place. Thus, only slgt
PoPs in forecast thru the eve. IF something could fire, there
would be chc for severe given strong instability and 30-35kt of
deep layer shear. Later tonight, may see a slight uptick in
elevated convection over NE/E portions of CWA in response to
strengthening LLJ. However, guidance is all over the place with
latest HRRR runs mainly dry, compared to more aggressive HRW FV3
and 12Z NAMNest. Think these models are overdone, but carrying
20-30 PoPs to cover this potential.

Wed will see NE to E winds much of the day behind a cold front.
This will help keep sfc temps cooler than today, for most areas,
with perhaps the far S/SE still seeing 95-100F. This will probably
keep most heat concerns just S/SE of the CWA, but if push of
cooler air is any less than may need a Heat Advisory from Osborne
toward Beloit as the Erly wind will help compensate the lower
temps with higher low level moisture. Have a dry forecast for the
daytime Wed.

The next chc for tstms could come as early as Wed night with
convection spreading N/NE from W KS, aided by LLJ. Once again,
model spread remains pretty high. Didn't go too high on PoPs given
SREF probs for measurable rain only around 30%. Lowest chcs would
be SE third or so of CWA.

Wednesday's cold front looks to lift back N Wed night into Thu AM,
allowing for hot/humid conditions once again...that probably last
thru the daytime hrs Sat. A shortwave tracking across N Plains
could bring better chcs for tstms by late in the day Thu into Thu
night. Looks like initial devpmnt favors areas NW of the CWA, with
some eastward component expected thru the eve. How far S/SE this
activity progresses remains uncertain, though, as primary LLJ
convergence could remain just N/NE of the CWA per latest NAM/GFS.
EC is further S/SE with QPF...so some forecast adjustments are
likely.

A stronger cold front is forecast by med range models to move into
the area Sat night as a stronger trough moves E across N Plains.
EPS and GEFS are in good agreement for decent drop in temps for
1-2 days (Sun-Mon). Still too soon to go into great detail
regarding tstm details, but pattern recognition and EC ensemble
QPF progs suggest this is the best area-wide-chc for rain over
the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Decided to remove
the VCTS mention from KGRI later this evening/tonight, latest hi-
res models have been trending toward keeping better chances off
to the north and east of the terminal. Have variable winds through
much of the overnight hours, turning more easterly with time
through the end of the period and increasing in speed to around 10
MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ041-047>049-
     061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
828 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
251200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
828 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are possible through
much of the night, mainly within Nebraska portions of the outlook
area, and particularly favoring counties along and north of
Interstate 80. While most storms should be fairly weak, a few
could be strong to perhaps marginally severe, with the main
threats being hail up to around quarter size, and wind gusts to
around 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values may reach or exceed 100 degrees across northern
Kansas and near Highway 81 in Nebraska both Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons.

Periodic chances for scattered thunderstorms continue Wednesday
night through Sunday night. There is a Marginal Risk for severe
storms Thursday afternoon and overnight. Thereafter, details
regarding thunderstorm severity remain limited.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any possible instances of hail
or wind gusts over 50 MPH that might occur overnight

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch