Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
741 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Sunday Night/

The remaining few showers across Central TX this evening should
continue to taper off over the next couple of hours. The rain-
free period tonight will be somewhat short lived as the storms
currently along the cold front in northern Oklahoma should
approach the Red River after midnight tonight. These storms are
expected to decrease in coverage and strength as they approach
the Metroplex late overnight although a few strong wind gusts may
occur. Early tomorrow, the influence of the upper level ridge to
our west will diminish over our area slightly, allowing for
stronger upper level northwesterly flow to nudge into the area.
This should provide some additional southward push to the
boundary through the afternoon. The primary driver in determining
the areas that see storms re-develop along the front through the
afternoon will be the strength of the outflow boundaries
associated with tonight's storms. With this uncertainty, the
second round of thunderstorms will likely initiate near or just
south of the Metroplex. Damaging winds will again be the primary
hazard along with a threat for isolated severe hail.

For the rest of tonight, we'll have increasing PoPs north of I-20
to the Red River after midnight into the early morning hours
Sunday. After a brief lull in activity during the mid morning
hours, PoPs will increase again into the afternoon as we get into
peak heating and the remnant frontal boundary sags into Central
Texas.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 310 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021/
/Sunday Evening Onward/

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across Central Texas Sunday
evening and Sunday night. The threat for severe weather should
deteriorate as daytime heating is lost and bulk shear decreases;
however, an isolated strong storm can’t completely be ruled out
during the overnight hours as we will remain somewhat unstable.

Additional storms may be possible on Monday as the diffuse cold front
lingers across the area. Deep layer shear will be rather weak,
which should limit the severe weather threat. However, ample
instability may result in a few robust storms throughout the day.
Gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain will be the primary hazards.

The rest of the week will be characterized by near to slightly
below normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
the seabreeze in Central/Southeast Texas will keep continued rain
chances in our far southern counties each afternoon this week.
The rest of the area will remain mostly rain-free until late this
week and next weekend when north/northwest flow is established
aloft. A couple passing shortwave troughs may bring additional
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday,
keeping our abnormal July weather pattern in place for a little
longer.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Main concern through Sunday will be widespread convective
potential. Line of thunderstorms organizing in Oklahoma will head
south overnight and should approach the Metroplex airports well
after midnight, in a weakened state. We'll continue with a VCTS
from 8-12Z with VFR prevailing outside of any convection.

Outflow and the associated frontal boundary will be in the
vicinity of the Metroplex during the late morning and will serve
as a focus for additional convection Sunday afternoon. Significant
impacts to departures/arrivals should be anticipated along with
variable winds in an around convection through the afternoon. Most
of the activity should gradually slide southward into Central
Texas by late afternoon/evening.  VFR will prevail Sunday night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  94  73  90  75 /  50  50  30  20  10
Waco                76  93  73  90  73 /   5  40  40  40  10
Paris               75  89  69  89  70 /  90  50  20  20  20
Denton              75  94  71  91  73 /  60  40  20  20  10
McKinney            76  92  71  90  73 /  70  60  20  20  10
Dallas              78  94  75  90  76 /  50  60  30  20  10
Terrell             76  90  71  90  73 /  40  70  40  30  10
Corsicana           77  90  73  90  74 /   5  70  60  50  10
Temple              74  93  73  90  72 /   5  30  30  30  10
Mineral Wells       74  93  70  90  71 /  30  50  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
618 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
618 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight, mainly along and north of
Interstate 20. Some storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts
being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms remain possible Sunday and Monday, mainly along and
south of Interstate 20. A few storms may become severe with gusty
winds and hail.

Isolated to scattered storms can be expected across Central Texas
Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Formal activation is not expected, but timely reports will be greatly
appreciated.