River Flood Warning 7, NWS Fort Worth, TX

039 
WGUS84 KFWD 251916
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
116 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville affecting Hunt County.

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan affecting Kaufman, Hunt and 
  Rockwall Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC231-261330-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.210226T1741Z-210227T1200Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.210226T1741Z.210227T0000Z.210227T0800Z.NO/
116 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* From Friday morning to Saturday morning.
* At 12:45 PM CST Thursday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  tomorrow morning to a crest of 15.1 feet tomorrow evening. It will 
  then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Caution should be exercised near the river 
  as water begins to flow out of the banks.


&&

LAT...LON 3319 9605 3309 9595 3303 9607 3317 9619

$$

TXC231-257-397-261330-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.210226T1800Z-210227T0900Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.210226T1800Z.210227T0000Z.210227T0252Z.NO/
116 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* From Friday afternoon to late Friday night.
* At 12:45 PM CST Thursday the stage was 4.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 16.1 feet tomorrow evening. It 
  will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will occur.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 9627 3293 9615 3283 9620 3286 9634

$$

Godwin

285 
WGUS84 KFWD 260044
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
644 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville affecting Hunt County.

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan affecting Kaufman, Hunt and 
  Rockwall Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC231-257-397-261845-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.210226T1836Z-210227T1404Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.210226T1836Z.210227T0000Z.210227T0204Z.NO/
644 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* From Friday afternoon to Saturday morning.
* At 5:45 PM CST Thursday the stage was 4.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 15.9 feet tomorrow evening. It 
  will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, minor out of bank flooding will occur.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 9627 3293 9615 3283 9620 3286 9634

$$

TXC231-261845-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.210226T2132Z-210227T1830Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.210226T2132Z.210227T0000Z.210227T0630Z.NO/
644 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Saturday 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* From Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.
* At 5:45 PM CST Thursday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage 
  tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 14.9 feet tomorrow evening. It 
  will then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, minor out of bank flooding will occur along 
  the river reach. At 15.0 feet, caution should be exercised near 
  the river as water begins to flow out of the banks.


&&

LAT...LON 3319 9605 3309 9595 3303 9607 3317 9619

$$

12

553 
WGUS84 KFWD 261431
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
831 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  South Sulphur River Near Cooper affecting Hopkins and Delta 
  Counties.

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville affecting Hunt County.

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan affecting Kaufman, Hunt and 
  Rockwall Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  East Fork Trinity River At McKinney affecting Collin County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC085-270645-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210227T0645Z/
/MCKT2.1.ER.210226T1215Z.210226T1800Z.210226T1845Z.NO/
831 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the East Fork Trinity River At McKinney.
* Until late tonight.
* At 7:30 AM CST Friday the stage was 16.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 16.1 feet 
  around noon today. It will then fall below flood stage this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will begin along 
  the river.


&&

LAT...LON 3325 9654 3315 9649 3315 9661 3322 9667

$$

TXC119-223-270845-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210227T2007Z/
/COPT2.1.ER.210226T1131Z.210226T1800Z.210227T0807Z.NO/
831 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Sulphur River Near Cooper.
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At 8:15 AM CST Friday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.0 feet 
  this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage just after 
  midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Moderate out of bank flooding will occur 
  along the river reach. A few rural roads will be flooded. Moderate 
  flooding will occur on farm and ranch land adjacent to the river.


&&

LAT...LON 3336 9567 3340 9556 3340 9549 3329 9548
      3329 9557

$$

TXC231-257-397-270845-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.210226T1533Z-210227T1803Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.210226T1533Z.210227T0000Z.210227T0603Z.NO/
831 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At 7:45 AM CST Friday the stage was 14.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late this morning 
  to a crest of 16.3 feet this evening. It will then fall below 
  flood stage just after midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will occur.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 9627 3293 9615 3283 9620 3286 9634

$$

TXC231-270845-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.210226T1704Z-210227T2333Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.210226T1704Z.210227T0000Z.210227T1133Z.NO/
831 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At 7:45 AM CST Friday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this morning to a crest of 16.8 feet this evening. It will then 
  fall below flood stage late tonight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Moderate out of bank flooding will occur. A 
  few rural roads closures will be needed along the river reach. 
  Moderate flooding will occur along the river through Greenville.


&&

LAT...LON 3319 9605 3309 9595 3303 9607 3317 9619

$$

Barnes

103 
WGUS84 KFWD 261859
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1259 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville affecting Hunt County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan affecting Kaufman, Hunt and 
  Rockwall Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC231-257-397-271300-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210227T1522Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.210226T1434Z.210227T0000Z.210227T0322Z.NO/
1259 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* Until Saturday morning.
* At 12:45 PM CST Friday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will oscillate above flood stage with a 
  maximum value of 15.9 feet this evening. It will fall below flood 
  stage late this evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, minor out of bank flooding will occur.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 9627 3293 9615 3283 9620 3286 9634

$$

TXC231-271300-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210228T0300Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.210226T2231Z.210227T0000Z.210227T1500Z.NO/
1259 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* Until Saturday evening.
* At 11:45 AM CST Friday the stage was 16.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this afternoon to a crest of 16.9 feet this evening. It will then 
  fall below flood stage late tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, moderate out of bank flooding will occur. A 
  few rural roads closures will be needed along the river reach. 
  Moderate flooding will occur along the river through Greenville.


&&

LAT...LON 3319 9605 3309 9595 3303 9607 3317 9619

$$

12

198 
WGUS44 KFWD 262135
FLWFWD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Texas...

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville affecting Hunt County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC231-271545-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210228T0701Z/
/GNVT2.2.ER.210226T1941Z.210227T0000Z.210227T1901Z.NO/
335 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration until early Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* Until late Saturday night.
* At 2:45 PM CST Friday the stage was 16.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.1 feet 
  this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early tomorrow 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Moderate out of bank flooding will occur. A 
  few rural roads closures will be needed along the river reach. 
  Moderate flooding will occur along the river through Greenville.


&&

LAT...LON 3319 9605 3309 9595 3303 9607 3317 9619

$$

30

927 
WGUS84 KFWD 270035
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
635 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan affecting Kaufman, Hunt and 
  Rockwall Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville affecting Hunt County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC231-257-397-271545-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210227T1535Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.210226T1434Z.210226T2045Z.210227T0335Z.NO/
635 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* Until Saturday morning.
* At 5:45 PM CST Friday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this evening and continue falling to 3.9 feet by Wednesday evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, minor out of bank flooding will occur.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 9627 3293 9615 3283 9620 3286 9634

$$

TXC231-271845-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210228T0657Z/
/GNVT2.2.ER.210226T1941Z.210227T0600Z.210227T1857Z.NO/
635 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* Until late Saturday night.
* At 5:45 PM CST Friday the stage was 16.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.1 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  early tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, moderate out of bank flooding will occur. A 
  few rural roads closures will be needed along the river reach. 
  Moderate flooding will occur along the river through Greenville.


&&

LAT...LON 3319 9605 3309 9595 3303 9607 3317 9619

$$

12

623 
WGUS84 KFWD 271936
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
136 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville affecting Hunt County.

TXC231-272045-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210227T1936Z/
/GNVT2.2.ER.210226T1941Z.210227T0600Z.210227T1857Z.NO/
136 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Cowleech Fork Sabine River At 
Greenville has been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 12:45 PM CST Saturday the stage was 11.99 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is below flood stage. Additional rises 
  possible due to expected rainfall with a crest of 9.8 feet just 
  after midnight tonight, but river is expected to remain below 
  flood stage.


&&

LAT...LON 3319 9605 3309 9595 3303 9607 3317 9619

$$

12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
529 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Today through Friday/

No major changes to the short-term forecast thinking described
earlier. Both low- and high-level cloudiness over Central Texas
continues to stream northward and eastward into the heart of the
forecast area prior to daybreak. This should yield cloudy
conditions across all of North Texas by mid morning. Robust low
level isentropic ascent will become firmly established across the
region by afternoon, and scattered showers are still expected to
break out across areas generally north of I-20 and in the far
southeast counties by 3 pm or so. This precipitation should expand
greatly by late today, encompassing most areas of North Texas by
this evening.

The latest convective allowing models are in fair agreement
regarding the evolution of the precipitation patterns across the
forecast area overnight. All are hinting at the development of one
or more broad southwest-northeast oriented lines of convection by
late evening, with these bands drifting east and southeastward
across eastern North Texas after midnight. It is within these
mesoscale bands that we expect locally higher amounts of rainfall
possibly on the order of 1.5-2" overnight. Soils are still not
overly wet at the moment, so anticipated rainfall rates are not
likely to pose a significant flooding concern in the near term.
Having said that, some isolated ponding within low lying areas is
certainly possible through tonight.

As mentioned in the previous AFD, substantial elevated CAPE will
be present tonight, and coupled with strong shear aloft this may
result in the formation of strong persistent updrafts that can
produce large hail. The main threat region for any hail would be
in areas north through east of the Metroplex in the 9 pm to 3 am
timeframe.

Bradshaw

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Friday/

Mostly clear skies across North Texas early this morning will
steadily give way to cloudy conditions areawide by midday.
Scattered showers will form by afternoon and becoming widespread
tonight. Thunderstorms will accompany the showers overnight,
providing much of the area east of I-35 with a decent round of
rainfall.

A shortwave trough moving eastward out of the Southern Rockies
will be the primary instigator for this transition, coupled with
copious low level isentropic lift which will become firmly established
across the region by this afternoon. Rising motion fostered by
both features will lead to the development of scattered showers
across our northern zones by late afternoon, spreading rapidly in
coverage to encompass most of the forecast area by this evening.
While cool, dry post-frontal air will remain entrenched at the
surface over the region, this shallow dome of Canadian air will be
surmounted by a fetch of moist southerly flow immediately aloft
through the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere. A moist
and relatively unstable airmass will become established aloft
across the region, and this environment should be more than
sufficient for the development of scattered elevated thunderstorms
this evening and overnight. Model guidance is suggesting MUCAPES
on the order of 500-1000 J/kg with decent quantities of shear
aloft. These conditions may be sufficient for the production of
some vigorous rotating updrafts above the boundary layer, which
may elicit the production of hail with some of the cells.

Given the amount of synoptic-scale lift present, coupled with
precipitable water values that will reach roughly 200% of normal
by tonight, we should see 0.75 - 1.25" rainfall totals across
much of eastern North Texas through Friday morning. A few spots in
the northeast corner of our forecast area may approach 2" if
cells train across the same locales repeatedly. Lesser amounts on
the order of 0.25-0.50" will be more commonplace west of I-35
where the moisture fetch will be more limited.

Most of the precipitation should be diminishing from west to east
across the region by daybreak Friday, as the Southern Rockies
shortwave approaches the I-35 corridor. We'll hold onto fairly
high PoPs for the far eastern zones Friday morning, but taper to
low chance values for the I-35 corridor, with silent 10% PoPs
sufficing in the western counties. Despite the presence of
descending motion on the backside of the departing shortwave,
skies should remain mostly cloudy areawide Friday due to
widespread lingering moisture in the atmosphere.

Highs in the 50s and 60s will be prevalent across most of the
forecast area today and Friday, though cloudiness and persistent
cold advection should be sufficient in the far western zones to
limit highs to the mid upper 40s this afternoon.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021/
/This Weekend Through The Middle of Next Week/

Not much change from the extended forecasts of the previous few
days. An unsettled, wet and stormy pattern is expected this
weekend into Monday. Meanwhile, the roller coaster of temperatures
continues. Nothing unusual for North and Central Texas for the
end of February into early March, right?

Friday night into Saturday morning will be the "lull before the
storm" so to speak, as the area remains between storm systems. The
return of south-southeast winds gradually occurs on Saturday, as
a surface warm front creeps northward toward the I-20 early in the
afternoon, before lifting north of the Red River Valley Saturday
evening with an assist from a 35-45 knot LLJ. These low level
changes will all be in response to our next mid level longwave
trough/low organizing over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
regions. Well to the east of this region, across North and
Central Texas, will be a very active southwest-oriented southern
branch of the jet stream, as a split flow pattern sets up over the
country's heartland (Central Plains). This will put our area in a
favorable right-entrance region of a broad jet stream maximum of
110-130 knots anchored over the Central and Southern High Plains.

While our area is within the relative "warm sector" Saturday
afternoon through most of Sunday morning, a couple of strong mid
level impulses will lift northeast from northern Mexico and across
Texas. Combined with larger synoptic scale ageostrophic ascent
from the aformentioned upper jet stream, isentropic ascent will
increase through the Saturday and Sunday period, as our next cold
front arrives later on Sunday into Sunday night. All these lifting
mechanisms will combine with plenty of moisture moving northward
from the GOM for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Rain and storm chances will remain more isolated across areas
west of US-281, where grasses remain highly cured and an elevated
fire danger may present itself ahead of the late weekend surface
cold front. The highest convective chances and rainfall amounts
will exist across our East Texas counties late Saturday through
Sunday night where precipitable water values in excess of 1.5
inches will be present.

With high temperatures in the 60s and even lower-mid 70s across
Central Texas, there will be some potential of surface-based
instability of 1000-1500 J/KG along and south of I-20 late
Saturday and Saturday night in the wake of the slow, northward-
moving surface warm front, then in advance of the cold front
arriving in the CWA later Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.
The surface-based instability combined with mid level lapse rates
reaching to near 7 deg C/km at times(especially across Central TX)
and strong vertical ascent may at times yield a few strong or
possibly a few marginally severe storms. The best bet for this
potential would be across our Central and East Texas counties with
gusty downburst winds and hail being primary concerns. There
remains plenty of uncertainty regarding our late weekend weather
and thermodynamic parameters, so we urge you to continue to
monitor our forecasts through this coming weekend.

The cold front will easily clear our area and move into the Upper
Texas Coast and Southeast Texas region by Sunday evening. Brisk
and cooler conditions are expected in the early part of next week
with lows in the 40s and 50s Monday morning, not warming much
during the day as strong low level cold advection, cloud cover,
and rain/elevated thunderstorm chances continue and limit any
potential for diurnal warming. Our weekend system finally opens up
and moves east across the Southern Plains and our area Monday
night and Tuesday. This will be in large part due to a new mid
level longwave trough organizing across California and the Great
Basins kicking it east. This will begin a moderation in both low
and high temperatures through mid week. Lows Tuesday morning in
the 30s and 40s will moderate into the 40s and 50s as a surface
ridge departs and winds return from the south and gusty at times.
Highs warm into the 60s on Tuesday, then into the lower 70s for
many areas by next Wednesday. Chances for showers increase on
Wednesday, as we start the process all over again with low level
warm advection increasing in advance of the next system
approaching the area from the west.

05/Marty

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR ceilings will continue to build northward into the D10 area
through daybreak, as warm moist southerly flow continues just a
few thousand feet above the earth's surface. These ceilings will
steadily lower through the afternoon, yeilding MVFR conditions
after 20-22z today. Large-scale lift associated with a shortwave
trough exiting the Southern Rockies will promote the development
of scattered showers across North Texas by around 20z. Have
included mention of VCSH in the D10-area TAFs and the Waco TAF
starting at 21z.

After 00z, showers will become widespread across all of North and
Central Texas, and instability aloft will be sufficient for the
formation of scattered thunderstorms areawide. Went ahead and
included TEMPO TSRA in the D10-area TAFs for the period 04-07Z,
as confidence is now pretty high that convection will exist in the
proximity of DFW during this time period. Retained VCTS during
the remainder of the overnight period, up to 09Z. Still believe
the majority of any precipitation and thunderstorm activity will
move east of D10 after 09z Friday.

Winds should remain generally out of the northeast at speeds
averaging 09-12 knots through the period.

Bradshaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  43  58  50  69 /  30  90  30   5  40
Waco                59  48  60  54  73 /  20  90  30   5  40
Paris               55  41  53  46  64 /  40  90  30  20  50
Denton              52  41  58  46  67 /  40  80  20   5  30
McKinney            54  42  57  47  67 /  30  80  30  10  40
Dallas              56  45  59  51  69 /  30  90  30  10  40
Terrell             59  44  57  49  70 /  30  90  40  20  50
Corsicana           61  47  59  53  72 /  30  90  40  20  50
Temple              58  47  61  52  73 /  20  80  20   5  40
Mineral Wells       49  40  58  47  69 /  30  70  10   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
306 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-260915-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
306 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances return for the entire area tonight, then linger
across areas generally south of I-30 and along and east of I-45
Friday morning.

Primary hazards will be hail up to quarter size with more intense
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall between 1 to 2 inches from
the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and areas to the east and northeast.
The primary area of concern for locally heavy rainfall will be east
of I-35E and north of I-20.

Cold soil and dormant grasses will allow more run off than usual and
may lead to localized minor flooding concerns tonight and early
Friday morning across eastern parts of North Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances will return to much of the area Saturday
afternoon through Sunday, as another storm system to the west and
associated cold front move into the area. Low thunderstorm chances
will continue behind the cold front Sunday night into Monday across
mainly Central Texas.

A few strong to marginally severe storms may be possible across
North and Central Texas Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
evening. At this time, exact details on hazards are unknown. Remain
weather-aware this week and through the weekend by following future
forecasts regarding the potential severe weather threat across parts
of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.