Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2021

River Flood Warning 35, NWS Fort Worth, TX

May 11, 2021Dallas County, Texas

NWS Fort Worth, TX issued this river flood warning at May 11, 2021, 4:04 PM CDT for Dallas County, Texas. It took effect at May 11, 2021, 7:30 PM CDT. It was in force for 37 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2021, 4:04 PM CDT (21:04 UTC)
In effect from
May 11, 2021, 7:30 PM CDT
Expired
May 13, 2021, 8:05 AM CDT
In force
37 hr
Issued by
NWS Fort Worth, TX
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Dallas County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Trinity River at Dallas (DALT2). The gauge peaked at 33.01 ft at May 12, 2021, 9:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderate25303505/1105/1205/1305/14
Action stage
29 ft
Minor stage
30 ft
Moderate stage
38 ft
Major stage
40 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 08057000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

120 
WGUS44 KFWD 112104
FLWFWD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
404 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...The National Weather Service in Fort Worth TX has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC113-121515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FL.W.0035.210512T0030Z-210513T0430Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210512T0030Z.210512T0900Z.210512T1630Z.NO/
404 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Trinity River At Dallas.
* From this evening to Wednesday evening.
* At 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 28.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this evening to 
  31.3 feet late tonight. It will then fall below flood stage late 
  tomorrow morning to 23.7 feet and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Minor flooding of agricultural lands used 
  for cattle grazing will occur. Low water crossings near the river 
  will begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

05/
6 follow-up statements
119 
WGUS84 KFWD 120154
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
854 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC113-122000-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-210513T1330Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210511T2222Z.210512T1300Z.210513T0130Z.NO/
854 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Thursday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River At Dallas.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 30.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 32.7 feet 
  tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow 
  evening.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Minor flooding of agricultural lands used 
  for cattle grazing will occur. Low water crossings near the river 
  will begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

Garcia
900 
WGUS84 KFWD 120609
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
109 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton affecting Denton and 
  Dallas Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC113-130015-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-210513T1248Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210511T2222Z.210512T1200Z.210513T0048Z.NO/
109 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River At Dallas.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 12:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 31.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise to to near 33 feet this morning. It 
  will then fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Minor flooding of agricultural lands used 
  for cattle grazing will occur. Low water crossings near the river 
  will begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

TXC113-121-122100-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-210512T2100Z/
/CART2.1.ER.210511T0005Z.210511T0900Z.210512T0900Z.NO/
109 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 12:15 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected has crested and continues to fall 
  toward the lower end of minor flood stage. By sunrise, the river 
  will likely fall below flood stage.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet, Minor flooding will occur upstream from the 
  gauge, near the city golf course.


&&

LAT...LON 3300 9688 3286 9687 3286 9699 3300 9700

$$

Bain
132 
WGUS84 KFWD 121338
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
838 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton affecting Denton and 
  Dallas Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River At Trinidad affecting Navarro and Henderson 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC113-121-121445-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-210512T1338Z/
/CART2.1.ER.210511T0005Z.210511T0900Z.210512T0900Z.NO/
838 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton 
has been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 6.9 feet Monday 
  morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3300 9688 3286 9687 3286 9699 3300 9700

$$

TXC113-130745-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-210513T1310Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210511T2222Z.210512T1500Z.210513T0110Z.NO/
838 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River At Dallas.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 32.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain fairly constant through 
  this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Minor flooding of agricultural lands used 
  for cattle grazing will occur. Low water crossings near the river 
  will begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

TXC213-349-130745-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0037.210513T0000Z-210517T1500Z/
/TDDT2.1.ER.210513T0000Z.210515T0600Z.210517T0300Z.NO/
838 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Monday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River At Trinidad.
* From this evening to Monday morning.
* At 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 30.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  evening to a crest of 36.0 feet early Saturday morning. It will 
  then fall below flood stage late Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet, Minor flooding to woodlands and low land 
  areas will occur on the right bank of the river.


&&

LAT...LON 3222 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626

$$

Hernandez
149 
WGUS84 KFWD 121851
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
151 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.

  Trinity River At Trinidad affecting Navarro and Henderson 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC113-131300-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-210513T1436Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210511T2222Z.210512T1445Z.210513T0236Z.NO/
151 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River At Dallas.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 1:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 32.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this evening and continue falling to 22.1 feet early Monday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Minor flooding of agricultural lands used 
  for cattle grazing will occur. Low water crossings near the river 
  will begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

TXC213-349-131300-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0037.210512T2102Z-210517T1930Z/
/TDDT2.1.ER.210512T2102Z.210515T1200Z.210517T0730Z.NO/
151 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Monday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River At Trinidad.
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 1:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 32.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this afternoon to a crest of 36.8 feet Saturday morning. It will 
  then fall below flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet, Minor flooding to woodlands and low land 
  areas will occur on the right bank of the river.


&&

LAT...LON 3222 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626

$$
421 
WGUS84 KFWD 130232
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
932 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan affecting Kaufman, Hunt and 
  Rockwall Counties.

  Trinity River At Trinidad affecting Navarro and Henderson 
  Counties.

  Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.


TXC213-349-132045-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-210518T0400Z/
/TDDT2.1.ER.210512T2200Z.210515T1800Z.210517T1600Z.NO/
932 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Monday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River At Trinidad.
* Until Monday evening.
* At 9:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 33.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of near 36 
  feet early Saturday afternoon. It should then fall below flood 
  stage late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet, Minor flooding to woodlands and low land 
  areas will occur on the right bank of the river.


&&

LAT...LON 3222 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626

$$

TXC113-131715-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-210513T1712Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210511T2222Z.210512T1445Z.210513T0512Z.NO/
932 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River At Dallas.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 9:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 31.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage just after midnight tonight. It will continue 
  falling and settle around 22 feet late Monday evening.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding will begin. The 
  pasture lands near the river will flood. Trails along the river 
  begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

TXC231-257-397-131500-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-210513T1455Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.210512T0333Z.210512T1330Z.210513T0255Z.NO/
932 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8:45 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage within the next few hours. It will continue 
  falling and settle around 4 feet by Monday evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will occur.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 9627 3293 9615 3283 9620 3286 9634

$$

Bonnette
550 
WGUS84 KFWD 131305
FLSFWD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
805 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.

TXC113-131415-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-210513T1305Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210511T2222Z.210512T1445Z.210513T0512Z.NO/
805 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Trinity River At Dallas has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Trinity River At Dallas.
* At 7:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 27.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 21.9 feet Tuesday 
  morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

Bradshaw

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 11, 4:01 PM CDT, 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 11, 4:01 PM CDT, 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
401 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1218 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021/
/Through Wednesday/

A persistent and deep upper-level trough remains anchored over
much of the CONUS this morning. At the surface, a 1005 mb low is
centered near Truth or Consequences with a stationary front
extending from this low across the Trans-Pecos to near San
Antonio, then eastward across the TX/LA coastal plains. The warm
sector south of the stationary front is characterized by
temperatures in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. The
cool sector north of the stationary front consists of temperatures
in the upper 50s and dewpoints in the lower 50s.

Through the rest of the afternoon, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the FWD CWA, with these
thunderstorms occurring within two regimes:

1. Ongoing convection across western North TX being driven by an
approaching upper-level shortwave trough.

2. Developing convection across Central TX near the stationary
front.

The first of these two regimes, as noted above, is being driven by
an approaching upper-level shortwave trough evident on GOES-E
water vapor channel imagery. This convection is rooted above the
boundary layer owing to the sharp frontal inversion noted on the
12Z FWD RAOB. Despite the elevated nature of this convection, it
is nevertheless able to tap into MUCAPE values in excess of 1,000
J/kg given the exceptionally steep mid-level lapse rates. Some of
the stronger cores within the widespread precipitation shield may
be capable of producing large and severe hail.

The second convective regime, developing across Central TX, is
being driven by convergence along the stationary front. GOES-E
visible channel imagery already shows agitated Cu near the
stationary front with IR channel imagery showing cooling cloud
tops. Some surface-based instability does exist in the vicinity of
the stationary front with LAPS analysis indicating 1,000+ J/kg
SBCAPE just south of the front. While thunderstorms that form just
north of the front are unlikely to be surface-based, parcels will
likely be rooted fairly low in the troposphere and will have
access to more than 2,000 J/kg MUCAPE. This will mean severe hail
will be possible in these areas well. Perhaps more significantly,
the large CAPE profiles and PWAT values approaching 1.75" will
support heavy rainfall, especially if convection begins to train
near the stationary front. This potential certainly exists as
backward-propagating Corfidi vectors are oriented nearly parallel
to the stationary front. HREF probability-matched mean QPF shows a
potential for 3-5 inches of rainfall possible near the stationary
front. For this reason, the Flash Flood Watch will continue
through 12Z (0700 CDT) Wednesday. In addition to the flash flood
potential, there will be a possibility of minor river flooding
within the Trinity River basin below Trinidad, with minor to
moderate flooding possible within the Neches basin.

Convection should end from northwest to southeast late tonight as
the axis of the upper-level trough begins to move east of the
region. Cloudy and seasonably cool conditions will persist through
Wednesday however, with some light rain showers likely continuing
across parts of Central TX.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Late Week Into Early Next Week/

Dry northwest flow will evolve over the Southern Plains late this
week in response to our rapidly departing and dampening trough
and increasing shortwave ridging across the Southwest U.S. Surface
high pressure building in behind Wednesday's cold front will
result in mostly sunny and mild conditions Thursday with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. As the surface ridge shifts east on
Friday and lee side cyclogenesis deepens across E CO/W KS, breezy
southeasterly winds will slowly draw modified moisture back
northward from the Gulf of Mexico with a slight increase in
humidity. High temperatures will warm to near 80 degrees across
parts of Central Texas and western North Texas. Flow aloft will
dampen with brief shortwave ridging aloft occurring Friday night
and early Saturday, before a weak mid level impulse arrives across
the area Saturday afternoon and night.

Breezy southerly winds 15 to 20 mph will continue to pull rich
surface moisture up from the Gulf with surface dew points in the
60s across the CWA. This rich moisture will combine with highs
warming well into the 80s to increase instability across the area
on Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase across the southwest half of the area in the
afternoon, then continue Saturday night with the addition of
strong warm advection within the 925mb-850mb layer. Though better
surface-based instability will remain across the Permian Basin,
West-Central Texas and the Big Country, mid level lapse rates
of around 7 deg C/km are forecast across the western counties.
This may lead to a few strong storms with hail and gusty winds. A
stronger, but progressive mid level wave arrives on Sunday with
continued warm temperatures in the lower-mid 80s and plenty of
Gulf moisture around within the surface-boundary layer. Though
details are very difficult to determine 5 days out, this sneaky
system could provide a risk for a few strong to severe storms
across at least the western half of the area where models are
currently forecasting steep mid level lapse rates and plenty of
surface-based instability. The one mitigating factor will be the
very marginal deep layer flow and shear being advertised by the
GFS/European models only 25-35 knots from the northwest. This
would likely result in a low coverage severe weather threat on
Sunday and Sunday night.

The longwave mid level pattern early next week does appear to
show a fairly wet and stormy signal for Monday and Tuesday, but
details remain very murky and uncertain. The deterministic
European model and its ensemble are much deeper with an
approaching mean longwave trough over the Rockies and Great Basin,
while the GFS is much more progressive, open, and less amplified.
Anytime I see such discrepancies, I tend to lean toward the
European model for its recognition of deeper energy within the
mid-upper levels and its better track record in the Day 5-7
period. This has me leaning toward the wetter NBM and WPC PoPs for
the early part of next week with seasonably warm and humid
conditions continuing. Being we're in one of our two peak wet
seasons, this isn't anything out of the ordinary. Any severe
weather threat will remain uncertain considering precise environmental
analysis is very difficult this far out, though the lift and
kinematics are present. What is more certain may be the potential
for rounds of heavier rainfall and potential flooding, as soil
moisture continues to remain elevated. We'll continue to expound
on these extended periods in more detail as model confidence
becomes higher with subsequent sampling with future upper air runs
as we move through the end of the week into next week. Stay
tuned!

05/

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1218 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021/
/18Z TAFs/

Metroplex...
Widespread TSRA expected to impact the D10 TRACON shortly. For
this reason...TSRA will be prevailed at D10 TAF sites through the
next few hours. TSRA will then begin to shift east and away from
D10 TAF sites later this evening with impacts continuing to the
Bonham and Cedar Creek arrival gates as well as eastbound
departures. IFR will prevail through the TAF period with
intermittent LIFR CIGs possible during SHRA/TSRA. N-NE winds 10-13
KT will continue. Convective impacts will begin to diminish after
06Z.

KACT...
Convective timing is a bit more uncertain at KACT, but at least
intermittent TSRA can be expected through the evening. Amendments
may be required as the convective evolution across Central TX
becomes more clear. IFR will continue through the TAF period with
LIFR CIGs likely by Wednesday morning. Winds will be N-NE 8-11 KT.

Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  65  54  73  56 /  40  10  10   0   0
Waco                58  65  55  73  54 /  60  20  10   0   0
Paris               54  64  50  71  51 /  50  10  10   0   0
Denton              52  64  51  72  53 /  30  10  10   0   0
McKinney            54  65  51  73  53 /  40  10  10   0   0
Dallas              57  65  55  74  57 /  40  10  10   0   0
Terrell             54  65  52  73  53 /  60  20  10   0   0
Corsicana           57  65  55  73  54 /  70  20  10   0   0
Temple              58  65  55  73  54 /  70  30  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       53  63  53  71  53 /  30  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-
121>123-135-146>148-162.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, May 11, 3:11 PM CDT, 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
311 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121245-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
311 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected the rest of this
afternoon and through mid evening, generally along and southeast of a
of a line from Sherman, to Weatherford, to Comanche. A few severe
storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are
possible across eastern Central Texas. A tornado cannot be ruled out
across this area as well. Elsewhere, small hail may occur with
stronger storms.

In addition, locally heavy rainfall and flooding are possible along
and east of Interstate 35. The heaviest rain may lead to localized
flash flooding across these areas, particularly those that
experienced heavier rainfall the past few days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across Central Texas
on Wednesday morning. A strong storm or two with small hail will be
possible.

Low thunderstorm chances return to mainly areas along and west of
Interstate 35 Saturday, with better chances arriving Sunday and
Monday. Details regarding the potential for severe weather or
flooding remain unclear. Individuals are advised to continue
monitoring forecasts through next weekend for for updates to the
forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested southeast of an Athens,
to Mexia, to Hearne line this afternoon.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 11, 12:38 PM CDT, 3 hours 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1238 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ130-111815-
Erath TX-
1238 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ERATH COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
CDT...

At 1238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dublin, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stephenville and Dublin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 9806 3221 9794 3211 9788 3201 9837
      3216 9848 3217 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 227DEG 36KT 3215 9836

Godwin
Special weather statement, May 11, 2:02 PM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
202 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ162-111930-
Leon TX-
202 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEON COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

At 202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Centerville, or 12 miles north of Madisonville, moving
east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Centerville and Leona.

LAT...LON 3131 9568 3130 9567 3129 9570 3127 9573
      3123 9573 3120 9575 3116 9573 3114 9578
      3109 9577 3109 9598 3107 9602 3107 9605
      3125 9600 3134 9566 3132 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 259DEG 11KT 3113 9593

79
Special weather statement, May 11, 2:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
209 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ135-148-111945-
Anderson TX-Henderson TX-
209 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Athens, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Athens, Frankston, Berryville, Coffee City, Poynor and Moore Station.

LAT...LON 3199 9545 3195 9545 3196 9590 3220 9591
      3226 9547 3225 9547 3223 9549 3220 9546
      3218 9546 3215 9548 3214 9546 3211 9546
      3209 9544 3204 9543 3203 9544 3201 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 267DEG 26KT 3209 9582

79
Special weather statement, May 11, 3:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
301 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ148-112030-
Anderson TX-
301 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Frankston, or 13 miles northeast of Palestine, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Palestine, Frankston and Berryville.

LAT...LON 3169 9571 3207 9552 3209 9543 3206 9544
      3204 9542 3203 9544 3201 9543 3199 9545
      3196 9545 3193 9542 3185 9545 3182 9540
      3176 9540 3175 9536 3173 9537 3173 9534
      3172 9534 3171 9531 3169 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 255DEG 23KT 3193 9553

79
Special weather statement, May 11, 3:16 PM CDT, 48 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
316 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ158-112045-
Bell TX-
316 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Morgan's Point Resort, or near Belton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Temple, Belton, Morgan's Point Resort and Troy.

LAT...LON 3123 9759 3132 9742 3124 9734 3127 9729
      3106 9712 3102 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 242DEG 29KT 3114 9749

79
Special weather statement, May 11, 3:35 PM CDT, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ158>160-112100-
Falls TX-McLennan TX-Bell TX-
335 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MCLENNAN...
NORTHEASTERN BELL AND WEST CENTRAL FALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Troy, or 10 miles northeast of Temple, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Temple, Hewitt, Robinson, Lorena, Troy, Bruceville-Eddy, Moody, Lott
and Golinda.

LAT...LON 3148 9713 3125 9695 3107 9728 3130 9745
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 243DEG 35KT 3122 9725

79

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fort Worth, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 7:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDFannin, Grayson55 min
May 10, 7:19 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDHunt26 min
May 10, 7:22 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDDallas23 min
May 10, 7:36 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDDallas24 min
May 10, 7:38 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDJohnson37 min
May 10, 8:13 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDErath32 min
May 10, 8:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDErath43 min
May 10, 8:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDTarrant28 min
May 10, 8:56 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryFWDHood, Johnson, Parker, Tarrant3 hr
May 10, 9:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDallas, Tarrant30 min
May 10, 9:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDallas, Kaufman63 min
May 10, 9:30 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDFannin45 min
May 10, 9:50 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDHunt25 min
May 10, 10:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCollin, Hunt, Rockwall42 min
May 10, 10:11 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDFannin49 min
May 10, 10:26 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryFWDDallas3 hr
May 10, 10:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDallas, Kaufman61 min
May 10, 11:00 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningFWDDallas, Denton37 hr
May 10, 11:00 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningFWDHunt46 hr
May 10, 11:00 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningFWDHunt, Kaufman, Rockwall57 hr
May 10, 11:32 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDKaufman43 min
May 11, 12:42 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningFWDDallas2 hr
May 11, 12:51 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryFWDKaufman, Van Zandt3 hr
May 11, 1:10 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDVan Zandt50 min
May 11, 3:20 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchFWDAnderson, Delta, Freestone, Henderson, Hopkins, Hunt and 6 more15 hr
May 11, 11:12 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDCherokee18 min
May 11, 12:38 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDErath37 min
May 11, 12:48 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryFWDDallas, Ellis, Johnson, Tarrant3 hr
May 11, 1:42 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryFWDComanche, Hamilton, Mills3 hr
May 11, 1:52 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningFWDDallas11 hr
May 11, 2:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDLeon28 min
May 11, 2:09 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDHenderson36 min
May 11, 2:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDLeon28 min
May 11, 2:37 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryFWDKaufman3 hr
May 11, 3:01 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDAnderson29 min
May 11, 3:16 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDBell29 min
May 11, 3:35 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementFWDFalls25 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2021Every river flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.