Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

236 
WWUS55 KFGZ 022138
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
238 PM MST Mon Aug 2 2021

AZC001-017-022145-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-210802T2145Z/
Apache-Navajo-
238 PM MST Mon Aug 2 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...

At 238 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Turkey Creek,
or 34 miles south of Show Low, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Whiteriver, Turkey Creek, Seven Mile and East Fork. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 10997 3390 10982 3375 10970 3368 10995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 332DEG 17KT 3377 10984 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ET

591 
WWUS55 KFGZ 022155
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST Mon Aug 2 2021

AZC001-017-022204-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-210802T2145Z/
Apache-Navajo-
255 PM MST Mon Aug 2 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire for White River. A 
new Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for East Fork through 
3:14PM.

LAT...LON 3384 10997 3390 10982 3375 10970 3368 10995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 332DEG 17KT 3371 10980 

$$

ET

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1004 AM MST Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today will become
mainly limited to far eastern Arizona by Tuesday. Limited
thunderstorm coverage is forecast to persist through Thursday.
Temperatures will warm to around five degrees above normal by mid-
week. Shower and storm coverage is expected to spread westward
again starting Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...Minor updates were made to precip chances, sky, and wind
grids through the next twenty-four hours. However, the message
remains the same. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon, with much less thunderstorm coverage from Tuesday
through Thursday. Updates have been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /244 AM MST/...Mostly clear skies have set up
over northern Arizona early this morning. Residual mid-level
clouds over the Navajo Nation will gradually clear by around
sunrise today. These mostly sunny skies during the morning period
will help to initiate a day of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. The greatest coverage is expected east of US-89 and
I-17 into east-central and northeastern Arizona and the Navajo
Nation. There is still a threat for localized flash flooding in
this eastern part of the state in the afternoon and early evening
hours. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as far west
as the Bradshaw Mountains or on the Coconino Plateau.

Beyond the storms later today, high pressure will also build over
the Southwest today. The placement of the ridge axis closer to the
AZ/NV state border will place north-central and northeastern
Arizona under much drier northerly to northwesterly flow aloft by
Tuesday. This flow will then limit the coverage of thunderstorms
to primarily the Chuska Mountains and White Mountains from Tuesday
through Thursday. Gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall is
possible near any thunderstorms in this mid-week period.

Daytime temperatures will increase into mid-week with clearer
skies, less storm coverage and increasing heights aloft. Some
lower elevations could see heat impacts from late morning into
early evening on Wednesday and Thursday. This would include the
mid and lower elevations of the Grand Canyon where anyone hiking
or recreating in the Canyon later this week should anticipate some
heat potential. There is even a 70-80% chance of exceeding 110 F
near Phantom Ranch for Wednesday and Thursday. While no heat
products are currently in effect for mid-week, this will be
further assessed over the next few forecast periods.

A series of shortwaves rotating around the northern part of the
high pressure and a potentially strong area of low pressure moving
southeastward into the PacNW is progged to help break down the
high pressure by Friday. Moisture could again push back into
northern Arizona by next weekend as a result. The forecast
reflects this potential with increasing chances of precipitation
from east to west starting Friday. Temperatures then cool into the
weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Isolated to scattered
-SHRA/-TSRA will develop after 18Z, then largely end after 03Z
 Tuesday. The greatest thunderstorm coverage is expected near and
 east of a line from KPGA-KINW-KPAN. Periods of MVFR/IFR cig/vsby
 and gusty, erratic winds will occur in and around thunderstorms.
 Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 18z Tuesday.
 Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly in
east-central and northeastern Arizona in the afternoon and
evening hours. Storm chances further decrease by Tuesday as
a warming trend also begins.

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and mainly dry conditions
continue through midweek with light winds. Moisture and storm
chances return Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...AT/NL
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...NL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff