Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

423 
WWUS55 KFGZ 181821
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1121 AM MST Sun Jul 18 2021

AZC025-181830-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210718T1830Z/
Yavapai-
1121 AM MST Sun Jul 18 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM MST
FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 1120 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Prescott and 
is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Chino Valley, Prescott Valley, Prescott, Yavapai Campground, Downtown
Prescott, Prescott Airport, Oak Knoll Village, Prescott Gateway Mall,
Lynx Lake Dam and Prescott Valley Event Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 11233 3449 11242 3462 11258 3474 11246
      3458 11233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 129DEG 4KT 3461 11246 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
ET

957 
WWUS55 KFGZ 181829
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1129 AM MST Sun Jul 18 2021

AZC025-181839-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210718T1830Z/
Yavapai-
1129 AM MST Sun Jul 18 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1130 AM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3457 11233 3449 11242 3462 11258 3474 11246
      3458 11233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 129DEG 4KT 3462 11247 

$$

ET

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1014 AM MST Sun Jul 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms for the foreseeable future. Localized
flash flooding will be possible with the stronger storms.
Temperatures are also expected to remain around normal to slightly
below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...A few thunderstorms are currently developing over the
White Mountains and northwest of Heber-Overgaard this morning.
Scattered thunderstorm activity should continue to develop
throughout the day, with storm motion primarily from east to west.

Hi-res model guidance indicates an area of better organized
convection developing near Payson around 7pm this evening, then
moving west towards I-17 between Flagstaff and Black Canyon City
between 7-10pm. Attempted to capture this possibility in the grids
with the morning update. Otherwise, the remaining forecast is on
track. The updated products have been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /255 AM MST/...A few showers mainly north of I-40
will continue to diminish through 5 am. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop once again late this morning and early
afternoon, initiating mainly over the high terrain. Expect the
activity continue into the afternoon, moving into the lower
elevations as the day progresses. Much of the activity should
come to an end by the evening, however a few lingering showers
will be possible especially over Yavapai and Gila counties. Heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat from these storms, so areas
of localized flash flooding will remain a possibility.

High pressures is expected to remain in place over the Four
Corners region through the forecast period, keeping monsoonal
moisture in place over much of northern Arizona. As a result,
daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected for the
foreseeable future. Later into next week, a slight increase in
moisture as the high wobbles around may lead to an increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage. Nevertheless, localized flash
flooding will be possible each day with areas of heavy rainfall.

Temperatures through the period remain around normal through the
first part of next week, then cooling a few degrees each day.
Background winds will also remain light through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect mainly VFR conditions
through the TAF period. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast from 18Z-03Z. MVFR conditions possible
in stronger storms. Sfc winds outside of storms generally light.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms are expected for each
afternoon Sunday through Thursday. Coverage will be scattered to
numerous, with locally heavy rainfall amounts. Expect light winds
and near normal high temperatures outside of storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TM/Humphreys
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff