Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2021

Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 23, 2021Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 23, 2021, 12:07 PM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 4 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2021, 12:07 PM MST (19:07 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2021, 4:30 PM MST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 23, 4:00 PM MST	FLASH FLOOD	7 N Clarkdale, AZ	4 FT RISE ON VERDE RIVER GAUGE (TO 1500 CFS) LIKELY DUE IN PART TO RUNOFF FROM RAFAEL FIRE SCAR.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 38 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 503 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 915 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

751 
WGUS55 KFGZ 231907
FFWFGZ
AZC005-025-232200-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0090.210723T1907Z-210723T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1207 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Rafael Fire scar in...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 300 PM MST.

* At 1206 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain over the Rafael Fire scar. Between 1 and 2 inches of 
  rain have fallen over southern portions of the fire scar. 
  Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
  warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire
           scar.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the Rafael Fire scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Coconino and Yavapai Counties

This includes the following swimming holes...
	Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11218 3505 11211 3503 11196 3499 11191
      3498 11193 3494 11199 3491 11202 3478 11204
      3488 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJ

3 follow-up statements

079 
WGUS75 KFGZ 232008
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
108 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC005-025-232200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0090.000000T0000Z-210723T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
108 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAFAEL FIRE SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

At 107 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain had moved out 
of the Rafael Fire scar. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain fell earlier 
and flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Rafael Fire scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Coconino and Yavapai Counties

This includes the following swimming holes...
	Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11218 3505 11211 3503 11196 3499 11191
      3498 11193 3494 11199 3491 11202 3478 11204
      3488 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJ

718 
WGUS55 KFGZ 232139
FFWFGZ
AZC005-025-232330-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.W.0090.000000T0000Z-210723T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
239 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Rafael Fire scar in...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 430 PM MST.

* At 235 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain moving over the Rafael Fire scar from the north. 
  Between 1 and 2 inches of rain fell earlier this afternoon. 
  Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible with the 
  next round of storms in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing 
  or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire
           scar.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the Rafael Fire scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Coconino and Yavapai Counties

This includes the following swimming holes...
	Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11218 3505 11211 3503 11196 3499 11191
      3498 11193 3494 11199 3491 11202 3478 11204
      3488 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJ

804 
WGUS75 KFGZ 232323
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
423 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC005-025-232333-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0090.000000T0000Z-210723T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
423 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAFAEL FIRE SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 430 
PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended over the Rafael Fire Scar. Lighter showers 
will continue off and on the remainder of the afternoon. Flash 
flooding is not longer a threat but forest service roads in this 
area will be extremely muddy and covered in water in spots.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM MST Monday for 
portions of east central Arizona, north central Arizona, northeast 
Arizona and west central Arizona.

LAT...LON 3497 11218 3505 11211 3503 11196 3499 11191
      3498 11193 3494 11199 3491 11202 3478 11204
      3488 11216

$$

McCollum

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 22, 7:01 PM MST	Areal Flood Warning	FGZ	Navajo	5 min
Jul 22, 7:06 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Navajo	3 hr
Jul 22, 8:08 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	3 hr
Jul 22, 10:06 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Apache, Gila, Navajo	4 hr
Jul 23, 12:57 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Gila	4 hr
Jul 23, 1:50 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino, Gila, Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 23, 4:07 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	4 hr
Jul 23, 11:21 AM MST	Areal Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila	6 hr
Jul 23, 11:38 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Coconino	37 min
Jul 23, 12:14 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Coconino	46 min
Jul 23, 12:19 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Jul 23, 12:51 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	114 min
Jul 23, 1:17 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		43 min
Jul 23, 1:31 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	34 min
Jul 23, 2:12 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Jul 23, 2:24 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	36 min
Jul 23, 2:59 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	7 hr
Jul 23, 3:26 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 23, 3:43 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Navajo	47 min
Jul 23, 4:01 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 23, 4:28 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Navajo	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2021 Every flash flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.