Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2021

Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 15, 2021Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 15, 2021, 1:15 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2021, 1:15 PM MST (20:15 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2021, 4:15 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 138 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -210 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2002 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

955 
WGUS55 KFGZ 152015
FFWFGZ
AZC025-152315-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0033.210715T2015Z-210715T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
115 PM MST Thu Jul 15 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Tiger Fire scar northwest of Black Canyon City in...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 415 PM MST.

* At 112 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain over the the Tiger Fire scar northwest of Black Canyon 
  City. Between 0.75 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 
  rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. 
  Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the the Tiger
           Fire scar northwest of Black Canyon City.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the the Tiger Fire scar northwest of Black Canyon
           City.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Yavapai County

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Poland Creek, Antelope Creek, Sycamore Creek, Castle Creek, Jim 
  Creek, North Fork Rock Creek, Willow Creek, Rock Creek and Black 
  Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Immediately move out of and away from creeks and washes in the the 
Tiger Fire scar northwest of Black Canyon City. Flash flooding is 
occurring or imminent. Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter 
flood waters while driving.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 11226 3420 11221 3419 11216 3414 11217
      3413 11217 3410 11216 3410 11220 3413 11225
      3417 11227

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJ

2 follow-up statements

483 
WGUS75 KFGZ 152132
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
232 PM MST Thu Jul 15 2021

AZC025-152315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-210715T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai AZ-
232 PM MST Thu Jul 15 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TIGER FIRE SCAR NORTHWEST OF BLACK 
CANYON CITY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 225 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain has moved 
away from the Tiger Fire scar northwest of Black Canyon City. 
Between 0.75 and 1.5 inches of rain fell earlier this afternoon. 
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Tiger Fire scar
         northwest of Black Canyon City.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Tiger Fire scar northwest of Black Canyon City.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Yavapai County

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Poland Creek, Antelope Creek, Sycamore Creek, Castle Creek, Jim 
  Creek, North Fork Rock Creek, Willow Creek, Rock Creek and Black 
  Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Immediately move out of and away from creeks and washes in the Tiger 
Fire scar northwest of Black Canyon City. Flash flooding is 
occurring or imminent. Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter 
flood waters while driving.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 11226 3420 11221 3419 11216 3414 11217
      3413 11217 3410 11216 3410 11220 3413 11225
      3417 11227

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJ

496 
WGUS75 KFGZ 152312
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
412 PM MST Thu Jul 15 2021

AZC025-152322-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-210715T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai AZ-
412 PM MST Thu Jul 15 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TIGER FIRE SCAR NORTHWEST OF BLACK 
CANYON CITY WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR YAVAPAI 
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3421 11226 3420 11221 3419 11216 3414 11217
      3413 11217 3410 11216 3410 11220 3413 11225
      3417 11227

$$

MCT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 6:29 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Jul 14, 7:40 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Jul 14, 10:39 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	5 hr
Jul 15, 12:41 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		49 min
Jul 15, 1:38 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Navajo	37 min
Jul 15, 3:52 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	38 min
Jul 15, 3:51 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 15, 4:55 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		35 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2021 Every flash flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.