Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2021

Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 14, 2021Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 14, 2021, 7:40 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2021, 7:40 PM MST (02:40 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2021, 9:45 PM MST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

County Coconino County, AZ

The radar

The Cedar City radar (KICX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 22 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -222 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1650 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

693 
WGUS55 KFGZ 150240
FFWFGZ
AZC005-150445-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0032.210715T0240Z-210715T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
740 PM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Mangum Fire scar in...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...

* Until 945 PM MST.

* At 739 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain over the Mangum Fire scar. Between 1 and 1.75 inches of 
  rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the Mangum Fire
           scar.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the Mangum Fire scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Coconino County

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Jacob Canyon and Warm Springs Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Flash flooding is occurring or imminent! Debris is expected to 
inundate Forest Service Roads 22 (Ryan Road) and 461. The Warm 
Springs Canyon water storage tank and pump house located along 
Forest Service Road 461 may also be affected.

Flooding and debris may also affect the Big Springs Cabin Site and 
structures within Mangum Canyon.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 11235 3676 11228 3670 11227 3662 11230
      3660 11232 3659 11236

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

NL

2 follow-up statements

267 
WGUS75 KFGZ 150335
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
835 PM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

AZC005-150445-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-210715T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
835 PM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MANGUM FIRE SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 945 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

At 834 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated moderate rainfall continuing 
over the Mangum Fire scar. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Mangum Fire scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Mangum Fire scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Coconino County

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Jacob Canyon and Warm Springs Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Flash flooding is occurring or imminent! Debris is expected to 
inundate Forest Service Roads 22 (Ryan Road) and 461. The Warm 
Springs Canyon water storage tank and pump house located along 
Forest Service Road 461 may also be affected.

Flooding and debris may also affect the Big Springs Cabin Site and 
structures within Mangum Canyon.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 11235 3676 11228 3670 11227 3662 11230
      3660 11232 3659 11236

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

MCT

491 
WGUS75 KFGZ 150442
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
942 PM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

AZC005-150452-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-210715T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
942 PM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MANGUM FIRE SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 945 
PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended, but showers continue over the area with 
additional heavy rainfall possible. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Thursday for 
portions of north central Arizona and northeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3677 11235 3676 11228 3670 11227 3662 11230
      3660 11232 3659 11236

$$

MCT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 6:29 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Jul 14, 10:39 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	5 hr
Jul 15, 12:41 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		49 min
Jul 15, 1:38 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Navajo	37 min
Jul 15, 3:52 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	38 min
Jul 15, 1:15 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 15, 3:51 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 15, 4:55 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		35 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2021 Every flash flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.