Flash Flood Warning 154, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

501 
WGUS75 KFGZ 100008
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
508 PM MST Mon Aug 9 2021

AZC005-100200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0154.000000T0000Z-210810T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
508 PM MST Mon Aug 9 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING 
FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

At 507 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain has moved west of 
the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have already 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tremaine Lake and Long Lake.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Jacks Canyon, Sawmill Wash and West Clear Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding of washes and creeks will occur, some dirt roads will 
become muddy and impassable. Paved roads and underpasses could 
become flooded as well.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 11131 3479 11116 3471 11113 3469 11130
      3471 11139 3479 11139

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

MCT

273 
WGUS75 KFGZ 100152
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
652 PM MST Mon Aug 9 2021

AZC005-100202-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0154.000000T0000Z-210810T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
652 PM MST Mon Aug 9 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
COCONINO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures and use 
caution near any high flowing creeks and streams.

LAT...LON 3479 11131 3479 11116 3471 11113 3469 11130
      3471 11139 3479 11139

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 PM MST Mon Aug 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will begin to increase today leading to
higher chances for thunderstorms through the week. There will be a
threat of localized flash flooding with the stronger storms.
Temperatures will decrease to near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A couple of isolated storms have developed early
this afternoon across central Arizona. The rest of the state has
been capped so far due to morning cloud cover from the remnants
of an MCS in southern Arizona. Daytime heating and moisture being
pushed northward from that MCS will help to increase convective
activity later this afternoon into the evening hours. A boundary
of 500 J/Kg of ML CAPE extends along the Mogollon Rim so most
convection that occurs today will be along and south of the Rim.
The storms that have formed so far have been nearly stationary,
but weak steering flow will likely slowly move these storms to
the west this afternoon. Due to the slow storm motion, there is a
risk of flash flooding near stalled storms with heavy rain rates
of 0.5"-1" per hour. Storms in central Arizona may organize this
evening and form into a cluster that moves to the northwest late
tonight into the early morning hours. Storms on Tuesday will
extend north to the AZ/UT border as moisture surges northward from
southern Arizona. Increased cloud cover and moisture in the
region will bring temperatures down about 5 degrees from today
before increasing back to near average on Wednesday.

A weak ridge will remain in place across the region through at
least the middle of the week. A southerly low-level flow will
continue to bring moisture up from the Gulf of California into
northern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
likely each day, with the greatest chance of storms south of I-40
where PW content will be greater. By late week, an inverted trough
may set-up to our east, increasing moisture flow and bringing
more favorable dynamics into the region. This would increase
precipitation coverage and the risk of flash flooding as well.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 0Z package...Mostly VFR conditions will exist
for the next 24 hours. MVFR conditions are possible through 0Z
tomorrow due to scattered showers and storms tonight through
tomorrow afternoon. The best likelihood for MVFR conditions
through 6Z tonight will be south of KFLG. On Tuesday, storms will
be more widespread so MVFR conditions are possible across northern
Arizona through evening. Through 0Z tomorrow, winds will be out
of the southwest at 5-10 knots with gusts of 15 knots Tuesday
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered storms will develop Tuesday and
Wednesday along and south of the Mogollon Rim with isolated storms
north of the Rim. Temperatures will decrease about 5 degrees on
Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Moisture will remain in place across
the region through at least Saturday. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are likely each day with the best chances for
precipitation south of I-40. Frequent lightning and isolated flash
flooding are expected with stronger storms that do form.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DeMaria/Humphreys
AVIATION...DeMaria/Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...DeMaria/Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1230 PM MST Mon Aug 9 2021

AZZ008-037-092000-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
1230 PM MST Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm is currently over the Prescott Airport
through 100 PM MST...

At 1229 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Prescott Airport, or near Prescott Valley, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chino Valley, Prescott Airport and Williamson Valley.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 89 between mile markers 318 and 326.
 State Route 89A between mile markers 318 and 321.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 11237 3460 11245 3473 11255 3475 11232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 178DEG 6KT 3466 11242

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TPS