Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

854 
WGUS75 KFGZ 270346
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
846 PM MST Mon Jul 26 2021

AZC005-270645-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0111.000000T0000Z-210727T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
846 PM MST Mon Jul 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PARIA RIVER REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
1145 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

At 844 PM MST, heavy rain had moved out of the the warned area, 
however flash flooding is expected to remain a threat while water 
remains high on the Paria River.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Paria River.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Paria River.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lees Ferry, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Grand Canyon 
  National Park and Navajo Reservation.

This includes the following slot canyons...
	Paria River upstream of Lees Ferry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get out of the Paria River slot canyon! Flood waters will flow down 
the Paria River, reaching the confluence with the Colorado River at 
Lees Ferry around 9 PM MST and 11 PM MST.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 11157 3685 11159 3700 11207 3700 11196
      3700 11191 3700 11189 3700 11188 3700 11170
      3694 11166

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Humphreys

694 
WGUS55 KFGZ 270638
FFWFGZ
AZC005-270845-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.W.0111.000000T0000Z-210727T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1138 PM MST Mon Jul 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Paria River in...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...

* Until 145 AM MST.

* At 1136 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain over the Paria River have ended. However, a flood wave 
  may still move down the river over the next couple hours. Between 
  0.75 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing 
  or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the Paria
           River.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the Paria River.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lees Ferry, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Grand Canyon 
  National Park and Navajo Reservation.

This includes the following slot canyons...
	Paria River upstream of Lees Ferry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get out of the Paria River slot canyon! Flood waters will flow down 
the Paria River, reaching the confluence with the Colorado River at 
Lees Ferry between Midnight and 2 AM MST.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 11157 3685 11159 3700 11207 3700 11196
      3700 11191 3700 11189 3700 11188 3700 11170
      3694 11166

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

TPS

416 
WGUS75 KFGZ 270835
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
135 AM MST Tue Jul 27 2021

AZC005-270845-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0111.000000T0000Z-210727T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
135 AM MST Tue Jul 27 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PARIA RIVER WILL EXPIRE AT 145 AM MST 
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3686 11157 3685 11159 3700 11207 3700 11196
      3700 11191 3700 11189 3700 11188 3700 11170
      3694 11166

$$

ET

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
310 PM MST Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday with near average
temperatures. Monsoonal moisture increases once again by
Wednesday, extending into the weekend, resulting in widespread
storm coverage across northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Taking a look out the window this afternoon, mostly
broken cloud cover is taking place with little to no wind. Current
radar is showing some isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity
popping up mainly west of I-17 into Yavapai County as well as for
a few areas north of I-40. The later start to today's convection
could be the result from the earlier cumulus development from
this morning reducing daytime heating a bit. Expect storm chances
to continue, tapering by sunset this evening.

Global models, including the NBM, suggest much lesser shower and
thunderstorm activity for Tuesday, however we are hesitant to "go
all in" in this scenario. As the ridge of high pressure
transitions and strengthens just north of the Rockies, the
monsoonal flow pulls moisture a bit further west and north
extending into the deserts of California and Nevada. Yes, this
pattern reduces the moisture transport into Arizona with the
majority of the GEFS and EPS members showing a decrease in PWAT
values (1.1 to 0.6-0.7 inches by Tuesday afternoon), however low
to mid-level, lingering moisture will remain present across much
of the region during this time. This, coupled with enough daytime
heating, should be sufficient enough for storm development to
occur. No...not widespread, but some scattered coverage along the
higher terrain, including the Mogollon Rim, White and Chuska
Mountains, and the Kaibab Plateau. Hi-res guidance (HREF, HRRR,
and SREF) support this forecast thinking.

Moisture advection increases for Wednesday as the center of the
ridge settles over the Rockies, resulting in a return to more
widespread chances for thunderstorms across northern Arizona. PWAT
values increase back to the 1.0-1.2 inch range by Thursday with
higher confidence in flash flooding potential with 1-2 inch per
hour rainfall rates likely. Similar thunderstorm activity,
coverage, and impacts compared to last week is expected from
Wednesday into the weekend. Average temperatures with generally
light winds are also anticipated during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered thunderstorms will
continue through ~02Z this evening with the best coverage
northwest of KFLG. Conditions will remain mainly VFR with the
exception of brief MVFR to IFR in any stronger storm cells. Gusty
outflow winds possible near any storm activity, otherwise winds
less than 10 kts from the south and west. Similar conditions and
timing for Tuesday, however better storm coverage along the
Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
are expected through Tuesday. Moisture increases once again for Wednesday
resulting in a return to widespread thunderstorms with the main threat
being flash flooding, especially on burn scar areas. Daytime temperatures
will warm to near-normal by mid-week with seasonal winds likely, outside
of any gusty and erratic outflows from storms.

Thursday through Saturday...Monsoonal moisture continues to increase into
the weekend with widespread chances for thunderstorms across much of northern
Arizona during this time. Some storms can be severe, however higher confidence
exists in the main threat being flash flooding with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches
per hour expected. Daytime temperatures will remain near-normal with generally
light winds likely.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...LaGuardia
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
138 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

AZZ009-010-039-262015-
Black Mesa Area-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle
Valley-
138 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM
MDT/115 PM MST/...

At 135 PM MDT/1235 PM MST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 11 miles south of Tsegi, or 48 miles north of Keams
Canyon, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Forest Lake Chapter House, Tsegi, Navajo National Monument and
Shonto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding in washes draining Black Mesa that will
eventurally flow into Moenkopi Wash ner Tuba City. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 11002 3622 11017 3612 11073 3649 11072
      3673 11057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 140DEG 12KT 3649 11041

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
421 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

AZZ011-262300-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
421 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR APACHE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 420 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Navajo, or 30 miles northwest of Gallup. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Red Lake Chapter House and Sawmill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 10918 3599 10918 3600 10905 3579 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 012DEG 2KT 3586 10907

MAS