Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2021

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

June 29, 2021Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jun 29, 2021, 11:56 AM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 29, 2021, 11:56 AM MST (18:56 UTC)
Expired
Jun 29, 2021, 2:34 PM MST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Storm-based polygon
Damage threat
Considerable
Flood severity
None

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 32 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2021-06-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 225 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2021-06-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -75 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
225 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-162 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1570 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-28 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

484 
WGUS55 KFGZ 291856
FFWFGZ
AZC005-025-292145-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0001.210629T1856Z-210629T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1156 AM MST Tue Jun 29 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Rafael Fire scar in...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 245 PM MST.

* At 1155 AM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain over the Rafael Fire scar. Between 0.5 and 0.75 inches 
  of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to 
  begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow 
moving through the Sycamore Creek. The debris flow can consist of 
rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire
           scar.

  SOURCE...Doppler radar.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the Rafael Fire scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  White Horse Lake Campground and Raymond Boy Scout Camp.

This includes the following swimming holes...
Sycamore Falls, Lower Sycamore Falls "The Golden Pond", Paradise 
Forks and Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 40 near mile marker 176.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

Get out of washes and creeks if you are camping or hiking! Flooding 
is occurring or imminent and will inundate area drainages.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. 
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. 
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate 
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11217 3504 11209 3508 11204 3511 11210
      3524 11202 3525 11191 3508 11185 3497 11190
      3497 11196 3490 11201 3482 11205 3490 11212
      3490 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

ET
2 follow-up statements
354 
WGUS75 KFGZ 291946
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1246 PM MST Tue Jun 29 2021

AZC005-025-292145-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210629T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
1246 PM MST Tue Jun 29 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAFAEL FIRE SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 245 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

At 1245 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain over the Rafael Fire scar earlier today. Between 0.5 and 
0.75 inches of rain have fallen. Rainfall intensity has decrease in 
the last 20 minutes. However, flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow 
moving through the Sycamore Creek. The debris flow can consist of 
rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire scar.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Rafael Fire scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  White Horse Lake Campground and Raymond Boy Scout Camp.

This includes the following swimming holes...
Sycamore Falls, Lower Sycamore Falls "The Golden Pond", Paradise 
Forks and Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

Get out of washes and creeks if you are camping or hiking! Flooding 
is occurring or imminent and will inundate area drainages.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. 
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. 
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate 
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11217 3504 11209 3508 11204 3511 11210
      3524 11202 3525 11191 3508 11185 3497 11190
      3497 11196 3490 11201 3482 11205 3490 11212
      3490 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

ET
948 
WGUS75 KFGZ 292134
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
234 PM MST Tue Jun 29 2021

AZC005-025-292144-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210629T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
234 PM MST Tue Jun 29 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAFAEL FIRE SCAR IS CANCELLED FOR 
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3497 11217 3504 11209 3508 11204 3511 11210
      3524 11202 3525 11191 3508 11185 3497 11190
      3497 11196 3490 11201 3482 11205 3490 11212
      3490 11216

$$

ET

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 29, 11:34 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino26 min
Jun 29, 1:05 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZCoconino, Yavapai3 hr
Jun 29, 1:58 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai32 min
Jun 29, 2:24 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZGila3 hr
Jun 29, 3:03 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino42 min
Jun 29, 3:39 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino36 min
Jun 29, 3:49 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino3 hr
Jun 29, 4:07 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementFGZGila23 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2021Every flash flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.