Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Grand Forks, ND

531 
WGUS83 KFGF 161442
FLSFGF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
942 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

NDC035-161452-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210716T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Forks ND-
942 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 4794 9744 4791 9756 4793 9763 4801 9773
      4811 9765 4811 9754 4803 9749 4799 9742

$$

Lynch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Thunderstorms have ended with sunset as expected with a few
locations still reporting visibilities around 6 miles in smoke.
Forecast is currently on track, and only minor adjustments to near
term trends were necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Very isolated thunderstorms are ongoing over eastern ND and
northwest MN, but intensity/coverage is actively diminishing.
This trend should continue through sunset. Impacts will tend to
include lighting and locally heavy rain (due to slow motion and
PWATS in excess of 1"), though the current storms are unlikely to
produce rates/amounts like activity earlier based on weakening
trends. Adjustments were made to reflect location/coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Decreasing impacts are expected tonight as southwesterly winds
increase and help scour out the low-level smoke across eastern ND
and west central MN. A few weak cells may develop west of the
valley this afternoon but will be short-lived and erode after sunset.

High pressure now over the top of Lake Superior is resulting in
increasing return flow into central ND. The increase in WAA is
resulting in widely isold showers/possible a clap of thunder from
the upper James Valley into the northern Red River Valley, where
MLCAPE values are around 500 to 750 J/Kg. Shear values continue to
remain nil so any cells that develop will be rather slow moving
and short lived. More likely to see some spits of rain with this
activity, although some small hail with the strongest storms is
possible.

The SW winds are improving visibilities across eastern ND and smoke
smell is not as noticeable, however some reports or irritated eyes
remain. Will keep FU in on the east side of the river where winds
will be lighter and persist through mid-morning Friday. South winds
increase more in velocity tomorrow, resulting in highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s. There is potential for elevated smoke from fires
over the PAC NW to move into eastern ND late in the period, which
could impact afternoon highs. This episode should not be as
noticeable at the surface. Overall, a dry and breezy next couple of
days as a hotter airmass returns to the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Overall dry and warm conditions are expected across the region in
the extended time frame. Ensemble guidance brings the strong upper
ridge to the area this weekend and through the first part of the
week with the heat wave having a high confidence of occurrence.
Short term impacts will primarily be tied to above normal summer
temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 90s most likely with
some guidance suggesting triple digits are possible on the warmest
days of Tuesday and Wednesday when the thermal ridge axis settles
over the area. Long term impacts would be to enhance the ongoing
drought conditions and deteriorating crop conditions. As the upper
ridge weakens, weak short wave activity and weak surface wind shifts
or boundaries will eventually bring the chance for thunderstorms by
Tuesday night or Wednesday to the northern half of the area. This
will bring cooler temps however still above normal temps to the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Isolated showers/thunderstorms developed near some terminals in
the afternoon and have lingered into the early evening. The
activity is very slow in nature and should quickly weaken/fall
apart through sunset, so possible impacts at terminals are
diminishing. Smoke continues to complicate visibility forecast
across eastern ND and northwest MN, with pockets of MVFR
conditions possibly lingering into the night (especially in MN).
HRRR smoke model indicates a more pronounced clearing trend at the
surface by Friday morning (especially in ND).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
246 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-162000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
246 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will bring poor air quality to
portions of northwestern and west central Minnesota today and
tonight. Sensitive groups such as people with lung and heart
disease as well as the very old and very young, may experience
negative affects of breathing in the unhealthy air. Some portions
of northwestern Minnesota near the Red River Valley could see air
quality become bad enough to be unhealthy for all people.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-162000-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh-
246 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated storms are possible west of the valley late this
afternoon into the early evening. Small hail and lightning are the
primary threats, and coverage will be very isolated. Smoke from
Canadian wildfires may bring breathing problems for sensitive
groups through the evening hours..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Speicher

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E MCCANNA             48.01N 97.62W
07/15/2021                   GRAND FORKS        ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS WASHED OUT AND A FEW ROADS BARRICADED.
            FIELDS FULL OF WATER AND DITCHES HALF FILLED
            IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

AP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
740 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE LARIMORE          47.96N 97.59W
07/15/2021  M6.00 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA MEDIA.

&&

AP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
742 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNE LARIMORE          47.96N 97.59W
07/15/2021                   GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

            VIDEO OF FLOWING WATER OVER HIGHWAY AND
            ACTIVELY WASHING OUT COUNTY ROAD.

&&

AP