Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
348 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Current radar loop shows some isolated showers and thunderstorms
moving SE across the state along a stalled frontal boundary. So
far the storms have remained fairly weak so not expecting things
to get to rambunctious through the evening hours. The area is
still mainly under a tropical air mass with PWATs expected top
stay in the 1.7' to 2.3" range through the short term. Even
through we are under a tropical airmass the threat for and flash
flooding remains low as we are only looking to get 0.5"to 1.5"
total over the next 3 days. Northwesterly flow is expected to
continue through the weekend, so keeping the diurnal convective
trend going through Sunday. The threats with any stronger storms
will be the same with locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning,
and gusty winds.

01

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Fcst period starts out with upper NW flow regime and some lingering
enhanced moisture. While a drier mid-level axis looks to advect into
parts of the area on the SW side of the upper mid-Atlantic trough
for Sunday into Monday, there could still be a weak perturbation or
two along the flow. Have trended pops to be chance north and likely
south for Sunday and slight north to chance/likely south for Monday.
By Tuesday, the broad upper ridge slides more eastward so we lose
the NW flow, but being on the far eastern side of the high won't
have much suppression for our area so have higher chance pops for
northern majority and likely south, then even more moisture return
to the area for Wed/Thu so diurnally enhanced coverage could
increase.

Warmest period will be Monday/Tuesday and resultant afternoon heat
indices could flirt with the low 100s to many areas. For now looks
like we stay below the advisory 105 criteria but some parts of
central GA could be a degree or two shy.

Baker/Hochstatter

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ceilings are mainly SCT to BKN across the area but they are VFR.
There area few showers across the area also and expecting some
TSRA to begin popping in the next few hours with temps getting up
into the mid 80s. should see thunder across the state through
sunset with storms diminishing after that. Ceilings will scatter
out after sunset with some IFR and LIFR ceilings developing jut
before sunrise Sat. These ceilings will not last long and should
lift into the MVFR range by 13-14z then VFR by 15z-16z. Winds
expected to stay out of the W to NW at 10kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  88  71  91 /  20  50  20  40
Atlanta         72  86  71  90 /  20  60  30  50
Blairsville     65  84  65  85 /  10  50  20  40
Cartersville    71  85  71  90 /  20  60  20  40
Columbus        73  87  73  90 /  30  70  40  60
Gainesville     70  87  70  90 /  20  50  20  40
Macon           72  89  73  91 /  20  60  30  60
Rome            71  85  71  91 /  20  60  20  40
Peachtree City  71  86  71  90 /  20  70  30  50
Vidalia         75  90  74  89 /  20  60  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1135 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1135 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, are
expected today. The primary threats will be locally heavy rain,
cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, are expected
each day. The primary threats will be locally heavy rain, cloud-to-
ground lightning, and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
557 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

GAZ027-202230-
Madison GA-
557 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MADISON
COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 557 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Victoria Bryant State
Park, or near Carnesville...moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Comer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3426 8312 3423 8308 3421 8309 3419 8309
      3417 8310 3415 8306 3412 8305 3407 8314
      3425 8324 3425 8320 3424 8317 3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 326DEG 19KT 3432 8315

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH