Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1105 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.UPDATE...

No changes planned for the forecast.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

As the short term period begins, the Bermuda High remains positioned
over the Atlantic coast, which will keep southerly low level flow in
place over the region. As a result, moist and humid conditions will
persist over north and central Georgia Friday and Saturday, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s and precipitable water values
expected to range from 1.5 to 2 inches. Some patchy fog is
anticipated in portions of central Georgia this morning. With high
temperatures forecast to mainly be in the low 90s across the area
and the deep atmospheric moisture, there will be ample instability
for the development of thunderstorms this afternoon and into the
evening. Chance PoPs are thus forecast across north and central
Georgia today. On Saturday, the Bermuda High will begin to shift
eastward as an upper trough approaches the area from the midwest.
The influence of the high will serve to slow the advancement of the
trough as it approaches. However, higher PoPs will be focused more
across north Georgia on Saturday. An isolated thunderstorm both days
could become strong to severe, capable of producing gusty winds and
frequent lightning. Considering the rich atmospheric moisture and
slow movement of the storms, it is also possible to see heavy
rainfall where stronger storms develop.

King

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

No major changes to the long term forecast with typical summer-time
pattern with persistent low/mid level flow over the CWA, bringing
with it increased PoP chances through the latter half of the
weekend. By Monday, model guidance progs a low/mid level trough to
move into the area with a pseudo-stationary surface front
elongated across the SE US resulting in Likely PoPs across much of
north and central GA. Moving into midweek, the aforementioned
trough is ejects eastward, leaving the CWA in NW flow decreasing
PoPs across north GA. However, GFS/EURO show cut-off stacked low
over the ArkLaTex region, providing southerly flow across the
southern tier of the SE. Given that, decreased PoPs to Chance
across the far reaches of N GA while maintaining Likely for
south-central GA, depending on how far the moisture surge reaches
inland through midweek.

Morgan

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some patchy
fog is present in central Georgia, but no visibility restrictions
have been observed at any TAF sites. The fog is expected to
dissipate by mid-morning. A cu field is expected to develop after
14Z, with BKN ceilings developing by 17Z. Scattered convection is
also expected this afternoon, warranting a TEMPO for TSRA at all
sites from 18-22Z, although SHRA/TSRA could persist beyond this
time. Winds will be primarily SW at 3-6 kts throughout the day
today, becoming light and variable overnight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  89  70 /  40  30  50  30
Atlanta         90  72  89  71 /  40  30  50  40
Blairsville     86  66  82  65 /  40  40  70  60
Cartersville    92  71  88  69 /  40  30  60  50
Columbus        92  73  92  72 /  50  40  30  20
Gainesville     91  71  87  70 /  40  30  60  40
Macon           92  72  92  71 /  50  30  30  20
Rome            92  71  88  71 /  40  30  60  60
Peachtree City  90  71  90  70 /  40  40  40  30
Vidalia         91  72  91  73 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Morgan
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1210 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1210 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are possible this
afternoon and evening across north and central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall are possible across north and central Georgia
through Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A few
storms could become strong with gusty winds and frequent
lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

GAZ039-051-062-161800-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Warren GA-
130 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALIAFERRO...SOUTHWESTERN WILKES
AND NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 130 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sandy Cross, or near
Crawfordville...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Washington, Sharon, Ficklin, Lundberg, Rocky Creek Fire Dept.,
Raytown and Sandy Cross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3361 8265 3355 8263 3351 8285 3368 8295
      3381 8271 3362 8262 3362 8263 3361 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 248DEG 7KT 3363 8283

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

GAZ047-049-161800-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-
135 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 135 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hard Labor Creek State
Park, or 9 miles northwest of Madison...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Social Circle, Rutledge, North High Shoals, Bostwick, Good Hope,
Ebenezer, Hard Labor Creek State Park and Apalachee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3382 8353 3382 8351 3364 8340 3357 8363
      3369 8372 3383 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 240DEG 7KT 3365 8362

WIND...40MPH