Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
318 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Despite the frontal boundary having relatively little dynamics and
very weak shear, there is an ample instability axis of ML/SB CAPE
3500-5000 J/kg along and ahead of. Also fairly high DCAPE to aid
momentum transport of downdrafts so cannot rule out some strong to
isolated severe development. Coverage should diminish going into
the evening and allow for some clearing conditions and light to
calm winds.

Tuesday will have another boundary push through but even more
moisture starved so will mainly be a reinforcing push of a drier
airmass, but some enhanced gradient winds will kick in out of the
NW and many areas will have winds 10-15 mph gusting 20 mph. Kept a
sliver of slight pops in the far south for mainly the afternoon
as the boundary and some aided sfc convergence near lingering
moisture could trigger some isolated convection, though vast
majority of CWA should be dry and mostly sunny. Slightly above
normal temps expected for afternoon highs with mid 80s to low 90s
in the north to mid 90s in central GA.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

The cooler and noticeably drier air will remain in place across the
area through Thursday before the influence of a weak sub-tropical
ridge begins to open the Gulf back up to deeper moisture, heading
into the weekend. As mentioned in previous day/s discussions, medium
range models have been in good agreement with some sort of tropical
wave/low pressure center meandering north across the western Gulf of
Mexico over the next 3-5 days. As of this discussion, the National
Hurricane Center has a 70 percent chance of this "wave" developing
into a tropical system in the next 5 days. Depending on its forward
motion/track and intensity, this could become a player for our
weather as early as this weekend, possibly stretching into the early
and middle part of next week. Of course, much uncertainty remains
this far out.

Safe to say that moisture and upr lvl energy will increase across
the area Fri-Sun with chances for precip gradually going up due to
these factors. Temperatures will gradually warm back up by Friday,
along with the humidity. Temps become dependent on how widespread
rainfall is this weekend. At this time, leaning toward a wetter
scenario.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly SCT/BKN cu field this afternoon near 5 kft and some
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA along and ahead of a weak front
pushing southward so have tempo TSRA 18-21z for northern sites and
20-24z for southern. Mostly NW winds 4-7 kts this afternoon except
VRB gusts possible with any TSRA, then calm to light WNW overnight
and increasing out of NW for Tuesday 9-14 kts gusting 20-24 kts.
Skies becoming mostly clear overnight through Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on overall TSRA coverage this afternoon.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  92  63  89 /  20   0   0   5
Atlanta         70  89  65  87 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     63  81  56  80 /  10   0   0   5
Cartersville    66  87  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        71  95  67  90 /  30  10   5   0
Gainesville     69  88  63  85 /  10   0   0   5
Macon           69  96  65  93 /  30  10   5   0
Rome            67  89  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  68  91  62  87 /  20   5   5   0
Vidalia         73  96  70  91 /  20  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
334 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into evening across North and Central Georgia as a front
moves through the area. Some storms could be strong along with
isolated severe with strong to damaging winds, small hail, heavy
rain, and frequent lightning as the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms across south central
Georgia Tuesday. Dry conditions expected Wednesday through Friday.
Thunderstorms will again be possible across North and Central
Georgia on Saturday and Sunday. The greatest chance will be during
the afternoon and evening hours. A few stronger thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out on any of these days, however no organized or
widespread severe weather is expected. The primary threat from any
thunderstorms will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
502 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ056>058-070-071-142130-
Butts GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Spalding GA-Henry GA-
502 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BUTTS...NORTHEASTERN
LAMAR...NORTHERN MONROE...SOUTHEASTERN SPALDING AND SOUTHEASTERN
HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 501 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near McKibben, or near
Jackson...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jackson, Forsyth, Jenkinsburg, High Falls State Park, Blount, Walker
Mill, McKibben, Collier, Johnstonville, Brent, Chappel Mill and
Goggins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3335 8405 3313 8382 3313 8381 3312 8380
      3296 8403 3328 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 316DEG 18KT 3323 8405

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
514 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             2 ENE BIG HAYNES CREEK  33.77N  83.92W
06/14/2021  E1.00 INCH       WALTON             GA   PUBLIC

            CEDAR LAKES GOLF CLUB REPORTED HAIL FROM DIME TO
            QUARTER SIZED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100408

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
516 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ079-080-142200-
Taylor GA-Talbot GA-
516 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN
TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Prattsburg, or 10
miles east of Talbotton...moving southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Butler, Junction City, Howard, Baldwinville, Prattsburg, Wesley
Church, Carsonville, Fickling Mill and Po Biddy Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3252 8443 3254 8445 3256 8445 3256 8446
      3270 8449 3277 8434 3276 8432 3276 8430
      3274 8428 3274 8427 3272 8426 3273 8425
      3259 8410 3250 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 334DEG 5KT 3268 8436

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
523 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             2 NE BIG HAYNES CREEK P 33.78N  83.92W
06/14/2021  E1.75 INCH       WALTON             GA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG CENTER HILL
            CHURCH RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100409

TV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
528 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE MCKIBBEN          33.30N  84.04W
06/14/2021                   BUTTS              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APPROXIMATLY FIVE TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION ENGLAND CAPEL RD AND COUNTY LINE RD. ONE
            TREE WAS REPORTED ON A POWERLINE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100410

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
534 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ046>048-059-142200-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
534 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALTON...EASTERN
ROCKDALE...NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

At 534 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Georgia International
Horse Park, or near Covington...moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Covington, Social Circle, Oxford, Porterdale, Walnut Grove,
Newborn, Mansfield, Shady Dale, Jersey, Lakeview Estates, Georgia
International Horse Park, Magnet, Almon, Milstead, Starrsville, Brick
Store, Farrar, Gum Creek and Oak Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3357 8368 3353 8368 3349 8363 3340 8357
      3350 8403 3351 8405 3352 8404 3352 8405
      3375 8403 3375 8379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 354DEG 15KT 3367 8389

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH