Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
A pseudo-summertime pattern continues to settle in today, with the
subtropical jet pushing off well to the north near the US/Canadian
boarder being replaced with broad, southerly low-level flow as a
Bermuda High sets up over the Atlantic. This southerly fetch of
moisture will continue pushing PWATS up between 1.5 to 2 inches by
the end of the short term period across the area, with plenty of mid-
and upper-level cloud cover also expected. This increased cloud
cover...could complicate things as model guidance has been
inconsistent on convective strength and coverage through the next 36-
48 hours. If cloud cover is a bit thicker in the mid- to upper-
levels it could reduce instability across the forecast area,
limiting deep convection in addition to a lack of concentrated
forcing from synoptic or mesoscale effects. However, lapse rates in
the lower-levels do seem favorable for at least shallow convective
development. The most likely scenario seems to be more scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms in Central Georgia today, south
of where the mid-level clouds have set up around the metro area this
morning, with showers and thunderstorms becoming a bit more
scattered areawide by tomorrow where sky cover breaks through the
late morning and afternoon, but some variance is expected.
temperatures will remain higher with the typical summertime mugginess
with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Morning fog could also be possible where rain occurs the day
prior.

Thiem

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. A closed upper low
will develop over Texas and linger over that area through early next
week. With southwesterly to southerly winds setting up over the
Southeastern CONUS, deep moisture will continually increase over
much of the region. As a result, dewpoints will remain in the upper
60s to low 70s and precipitable water values will stay in the 1.5 to
2.0 inch range through the remainder of the period. This ample
moisture will persist even as the upper level flow pattern weakens.
With southerly low level flow, good instability, and weak impulses
traversing the flow aloft, scattered to numerous diurnally driven
airmass thunderstorms are expected each day from Sunday through
Friday. Model guidance remains the most bullish on convective
development Sunday through Tuesday, where likely PoPs are forecast
areawide. Primarily chance PoPs are forecast Wednesday through
Friday as the upper level flow weakens and organized forcing becomes
less likely. Afternoon highs are forecast to be near climatological
normals. This means mainly 80s to low 90s across the area. With
copious Gulf moisture and high dewpoints, low temperatures will run
mainly 3-6 degrees above average in the mid to upper 60s to near
70.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions generally expected for the TAF period, with
ISO to SCT convection, mostly in the southern CWA, and MVFR VSBYs
possible overnight, mostly where rainfall occurs this afternoon
and evening. Light winds out of the west, will become calm to VRB
overnight becoming light out of the SE on Saturday. Confidence is
lower on convective coverage and timing this evening and
overnight with inconsistency among the models runs, but TSRA
chances will remain lower where BKN mid-level clouds reside.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on SHRA/TSRA coverage through 12Z. Medium on VSBYs
overnight. High on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  86  68  84 /  20  50  40  60
Atlanta         69  85  70  83 /  20  50  40  50
Blairsville     61  79  62  76 /  20  50  40  50
Cartersville    66  85  67  82 /  20  50  40  50
Columbus        68  89  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
Gainesville     67  84  68  79 /  20  50  40  50
Macon           68  90  68  89 /  30  50  30  60
Rome            67  87  68  83 /  20  40  40  50
Peachtree City  66  86  68  83 /  20  50  40  50
Vidalia         71  91  71  90 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1103 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051515-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1103 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening across central Georgia, along with isolated thunderstorms
across portions of north Georgia. An isolated strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out, however, no organized severe weather
threat is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across much of central Georgia
on Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will then be likely across
much of the forecast area Sunday through Thursday. An isolated
strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out on any of these days,
however, no organized severe threat is forecast at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
337 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

GAZ086-113-042015-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-
337 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOOMBS AND SOUTHERN
EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 337 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Oak Park, or 9 miles
north of Lyons...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Vidalia, Stillmore, Oak Park and Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3242 8219 3235 8225 3235 8224 3228 8223
      3224 8221 3223 8222 3224 8244 3229 8243
      3235 8241 3237 8241 3240 8239 3244 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 265DEG 17KT 3233 8229

WIND...40MPH