Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS El Paso, TX
NWS El Paso, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 12, 2021, 5:01 PM MDT for Otero County, New Mexico. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 12, 2021, 5:01 PM MDT (23:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 12, 2021, 5:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 29 min
- Issued by
- NWS El Paso, TX
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
County Otero County, NM
The radar
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 5195 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -8 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
674
WUUS54 KEPZ 122301
SVREPZ
NMC035-122330-
/O.NEW.KEPZ.SV.W.0012.210612T2301Z-210612T2330Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service El Paso TX
501 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021
The National Weather Service in El Paso has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
South central Otero County in south central New Mexico...
* Until 530 PM MDT.
* At 500 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 23 miles northeast
of Loma Linda, moving north at 10 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Cornudas Mountains and The Otero Mesa.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 3201 10561 3201 10584 3230 10582 3230 10551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 192DEG 9KT 3214 10571
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
Pegram1 follow-up statement
677
WWUS54 KEPZ 122323
SVSEPZ
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
523 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021
NMC035-122331-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210612T2330Z/
Otero NM-
523 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM MDT...
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However heavy
rain and frequent lightning are still possible with this
thunderstorm.
LAT...LON 3201 10561 3201 10584 3230 10582 3230 10551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 192DEG 9KT 3218 10570
$$
PegramWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 12, 2:09 PM MDT, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 2:09 PM MDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
209 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Another day with record highs is expected today. On Sunday and
Monday, we will continue to have near record temperatures. For the
rest of the week, temperatures in the lowlands will be mostly in
the upper 90s or around a 100. The mountains will be cooler, but
still above normal for the season. We will have slight chances for
thunderstorms in the mountains over the next couple of days.
Although rainfall accumulations will be mostly light.
&&
29
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday...
Upper high currently sitting right over the CWA and by the end of
the day Sunday will be shifted slightly NW. The main difference
between today and tomorrow will be that there are currently some
isolated storms trying to form over the Sacs and possibly later into
Hudspeth county where best moisture is located. Models all in good
agreement that outflow from these storms will push westward across
most of the CWA overnight. This will raise dew points areawide,
although still not significantly, from the 20s and 30s to the 30s
and 40s. These slightly higher dew points and some easterly winds
will help to keep overnight lows warmer than recent days with mid
60s to mid 70s expected.
For Sunday, with the high shifting NW, upper flow will be turning
more NE and surface flow will be east to southeast. This will lead
to temperatures being just a little cooler, at least east of the
Continental Divide. Over the western CWA, should still see highs
close to today. Will still see high temperatures getting to low end
Heat Advisory criteria, so will continue as is. Once again there
will be some isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the
mountains and some hints in GFS and EC that a couple storms could
form over the Gila region as well as the Sacs. Shear and instability
remain weak so again likely popcorn storms with gusty winds
&&
26
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Friday Night...
The upper high responsible for the hottest temperatures of this
week keeps moving to the northwest. An east to southeast flow
persists bringing in moist air to the eastern portions of the CWA.
However, we are not expecting much in terms of showers and
thunderstorms, except near the Sacramento Mountains where
topographic lifting and some marginal instability will generate
some storms. For the rest, of the area it will be hard as we
remain under an area of subsidence aloft.
By Tuesday, the upper high moves over to the Four Corners area
that will allow for more moisture to move in across the region.
Subsequently, this extends our chances for storms into the Gila
region and the Black Range. There is one caveat though, with any
storm that develops it appears that rainfall accumulations will be
generally on the lighter side. Anyway, the Gila region has the
best chances for storms during this portion of the forecast. This
scenario persists through the rest of the week as the high
wobbles around the Four Corners. Temperatures will remain at or
near 100F in the lowlands, while the mountains above 7500 ft have
temps in the 70s and 80s.
This weekend a plume of moisture starts to slip in from the west
along the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico. Storm chances increase
over the western portions of the CWA. The high aloft moves to the
southwest into AZ, which will help push the moisture in our
direction. However, temperatures appear to increase again as we
have more of a southerly flow near the surface advecting warm air
into the Borderland.
&&
29
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE...
SKC-SCT150-200 through much of the period. There will be some
isolated 3-5SM VRB25G45KT -TSRA BKN080-100 mainly from the
Sacramento Mountains south into Hudspeth County. East to southeast
outflow winds with gusts over 20KTS are expected to move into
KELP around 02Z-03Z and continue pushing toward KDMN by later in
the evening which could produce some LLWS. Winds look to die off
by 06Z to AOB 12KTS.
&&
26
.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally continued hot and mainly dry with just some isolated
storms over area mountains for the upcoming week. Temperatures will
be slowly cooling down toward normal which will put lowland highs
around 100 degrees, but minimum relative humidities will remain in
the 8 to 15 percent range for the lowlands and slightly higher in
the mountains. Any thunderstorms that do develop this week could
produce some dry lightning along with gusty winds. Winds will
predominantly be east to southeast through the week in the 5 to 15
mph range. Vent rates will be very good to excellent.
&&
26
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 78 105 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 70 99 68 95 / 20 0 0 0
Las Cruces 72 104 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 71 104 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 59 79 55 79 / 10 10 20 20
Truth or Consequences 72 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 68 98 69 97 / 0 10 0 0
Deming 66 105 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 66 105 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 77 105 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 67 102 69 100 / 20 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 74 105 71 103 / 20 0 0 0
Loma Linda 72 97 71 95 / 10 0 0 0
Fabens 76 106 74 103 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 74 104 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 72 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 61 103 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 69 106 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 73 105 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 73 104 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 60 90 59 89 / 10 20 20 10
Mescalero 59 89 58 89 / 10 10 20 10
Timberon 55 87 56 86 / 10 10 0 10
Winston 57 95 59 96 / 0 10 0 0
Hillsboro 68 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 65 104 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 46 100 57 99 / 0 10 0 0
Hurley 62 100 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 54 103 55 107 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 47 101 62 102 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 69 100 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 65 106 69 105 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 64 104 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 69 105 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 67 100 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for NMZ404>407-
409>413-417.
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for TXZ418>424.
&&
26-Grzywacz/29-CrespoHazardous weather outlook, Jun 12, 10:58 AM MDT, 6 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1058 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 NMZ404>407-409>413-417-TXZ418>424-131730- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin- Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County- Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1058 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Hot temperatures with highs around 5 to 8 degrees above normal with some lower valley locations reaching close to 110 degrees this afternoon. People are urged to limit outdoor activity during the peak heating time. Remember your outside pets too. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for eastern Otero county into Hudspeth county this afternoon and evening with gusty winds the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Temperatures will slowly start cooling down toward normal by early in the week but will still be around 100 degrees for the lowlands. Isolated thunderstorms are possible each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today. NMZ401>403-408-414>416-131730- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Eastern Black Range Foothills- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- 1058 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico and southwest New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds are the main threat. Temperatures will also be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Temperatures will slowly cool into early next week. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible almost each afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today. 26
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 12, 2:30 PM MDT, 2 hours 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 NMZ412>415-417-122115- Southern Tularosa Basin NM-Central Tularosa Basin NM-Otero Mesa NM- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM- 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM MDT... At 228 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Timberon, moving southwest at 10 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Timberon and The Otero Mesa. This includes Highway 54 in New Mexico between mile markers 51 and 53. LAT...LON 3274 10572 3256 10558 3236 10584 3271 10602 TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 060DEG 9KT 3261 10576 Pegram
Special weather statement, Jun 12, 3:49 PM MDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 349 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 NMZ413-417-122215- Southern Tularosa Basin NM-Otero Mesa NM- 349 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM MDT... At 347 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13 miles southeast of Orogrande, moving north at 10 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... The Otero Mesa. LAT...LON 3219 10580 3223 10599 3246 10596 3242 10570 TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 189DEG 8KT 3228 10589 Pegram
Special weather statement, Jun 12, 4:00 PM MDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 400 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 NMZ417-122230- Otero Mesa NM- 400 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MDT... At 359 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13 miles south of Lincoln National Forest, moving north at 20 mph. Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Lincoln National Forest, Crow Flats and Brokeoff Mountains. LAT...LON 3203 10485 3203 10504 3226 10510 3229 10485 TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 180DEG 17KT 3213 10494 Pegram
Special weather statement, Jun 12, 4:57 PM MDT, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 457 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 NMZ417-122330- Otero Mesa NM- 457 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM MDT... At 456 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24 miles northeast of Loma Linda, moving north at 10 mph. Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Cornudas Mountains and The Otero Mesa. LAT...LON 3204 10561 3205 10583 3230 10582 3230 10551 TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 192DEG 9KT 3214 10570 Pegram
The office that day
Everything else NWS El Paso, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2:30 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | EPZ | Otero | 45 min |
| Jun 12, 2:38 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EPZ | Otero | 21 min |
| Jun 12, 2:57 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EPZ | Otero | 3 hr |
| Jun 12, 3:49 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | EPZ | Otero | 26 min |
| Jun 12, 4:00 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | EPZ | 30 min | |
| Jun 12, 4:57 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | EPZ | Otero | 33 min |
| Jun 12, 5:32 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EPZ | Otero | 43 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2021Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.