Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
447 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

Summary: Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the western
CWA and will move northeastward through the evening. Warm
temperatures will continue through the much of the workweek with
big changes on the way for temperatures next week.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed out ahead of a midlevel
shortwave trough over northwestern Minnesota. Said trough will
move northeastward/eastward pushing the convection in the same
direction toward southern Canada and northeastern Minnesota
through the evening hours. MLCAPE is as high as 1500 J/kg this
afternoon for the far western portion of the CWA. Bulk shear is
relatively weak around 30 to 35 knots. Widespread severe weather
is not expected, but can not rule out dime size hail and strong
winds. Should also mention that instability does drop off towards
the lake so any convection that does develop will likely not
survive as it pushes eastward into the more stable air.

Warm temperatures will continue for the region as a ridge axis
pushes back northward Thursday morning allowing for above normal
high temperatures. A weak cold front will drop southeastward into
northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by the afternoon
hours. The better forcing and instability is over northwestern
Wisconsin with MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg with weak shear near
20 knots. SPC has a marginal area out which seems reasonable.

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Friday
afternoon as another cold front will be moving into the western
portion of the CWA by around 21Z. Again, the best instability will
be over northwestern Wisconsin with MLCAPE values near 1500-2200
J/kg. Bulk shear values are near 25 to 30 knots.

After the coldfront moves through temperatures will be closer to
normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 70 to low
80s. As usual temperatures will be cooler by the lake.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

VFR condition will continue through today. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this evening. A
few storms near INL may be strong to severe with damaging winds
and large hail. MVFR Ceilings are possible tomorrow morning along
the International Border.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued until 10pm tonight from Two
Harbors to Duluth to Port Wing. Winds are going to be out of
northeast 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts to near 25 knots. Waves
will be 3 to 5 feet. For this evening, winds will decrease to 10
knots and waves will be 2 to 4 feet. Conditions will continue to
decrease through the morning with winds below 10 knots and waves
less than 2 feet.

For Friday winds will be out of the northeast 10 to 15 knots
increasing to 15 to 20 knots by the afternoon. Waves will be less
than 2 feet Friday morning, however, increasing 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  90  57  68 /  20  30  10  60
INL  63  83  60  83 /  60  10  20  80
BRD  70  96  69  86 /  20  10  20  70
HYR  66  92  65  87 /  20  20  10  50
ASX  59  93  54  71 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.

&&

DISCUSSION...Eagle
AVIATION...Eagle
MARINE...Eagle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-102000-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible across much of the Northland into
tonight, with chances highest over far northern and western areas.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely over far
north central Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds are the
main hazards. All storms will also be capable of producing
frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. A couple rounds of storms
are possible in far northern Minnesota which may lead to the
heavy rainfall.

There is a high risk of rip currents along the beaches of Park
Point into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across
much of northwest Wisconsin and east central Minnesota during the
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the main threat with
those storms. Thunderstorms are also expected across portions of
the rest of the Northland Thursday into Thursday evening.

There will be chances in spots for more thunderstorms Friday into
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-102000-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Northeast winds will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft
in the far southwest arm of Lake Superior this afternoon and
evening. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued through 10 PM.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. Gusty winds, frequent
lightning, small hail, and heavy rain may occur. Wind and waves
will be higher in and near any thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

More thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will occur Thursday into
Thursday evening. The greatest risk for strong storms will be
along the South Shore. Strong winds are the main threat.

Increasing northeast winds Thursday night into Friday may lead to
hazardous conditions for small craft, especially from Two Harbors
to the Twin Ports to Port Wing.

There will be chances for more thunderstorms Friday into Sunday.

Melde

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
410 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MNZ025-092130-
North Cass-
410 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY...

At 410 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Federal Dam, or 22
miles northeast of Walker, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and penny size hail can be expected with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Bena around 425 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Goose Lake and Six
Mile Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4713 9415 4720 9430 4736 9425 4733 9407
      4723 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 215DEG 20KT 4724 9416

Kossen/Wolfe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
429 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MNZ025-026-092145-
North Cass-South Itasca-
429 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ITASCA AND NORTHEASTERN
CASS COUNTIES...

At 429 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Ball Club, or 24 miles
west of Grand Rapids, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and penny size hail can be expected with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Ball Club around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Six Mile Lake, Ball
Club Lake, Mud Lake and Goose Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4716 9401 4728 9418 4743 9406 4738 9390
      4728 9379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 225DEG 19KT 4729 9404

Kossen/Wolfe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
445 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MNZ025-026-092200-
North Cass-South Itasca-
445 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ITASCA AND
NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES...

At 445 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Ball Club, or 20 miles
west of Grand Rapids, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and penny size hail can be expected with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Deer River and Zemple around 500 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mud Lake, Ball Club
Lake and Goose Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4720 9394 4731 9408 4745 9397 4740 9383
      4729 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 225DEG 18KT 4732 9395

Kossen/Wolfe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
500 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MNZ025-026-092215-
North Cass-South Itasca-
500 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ITASCA AND NORTHEASTERN
CASS COUNTIES...

At 459 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Deer River, or 17 miles
northwest of Grand Rapids, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail can be expected with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern North
Cass and northwestern South Itasca Counties, including the following
locations... Ball Club Lake, Bass Lake and Mud Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4747 9387 4746 9374 4730 9361 4720 9389
      4732 9404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 235DEG 19KT 4735 9385

Kossen/Wolfe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
509 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MNZ010-092230-
Koochiching-
509 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL KOOCHICHING
COUNTY...

At 509 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Waskish, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail can be expected with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Koochiching County.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4833 9442 4828 9430 4809 9410 4799 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 226DEG 43KT 4816 9451

Kossen/Wolfe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
521 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MNZ018-026-092230-
North Itasca-South Itasca-
521 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ITASCA COUNTY...

At 520 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was 8 miles northeast of Deer
River, or 16 miles northwest of Grand Rapids, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and penny size hail can be expected with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central North
Itasca and north central South Itasca Counties, including the
following locations... Wabana Lake, North Star Lake and Spider Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4731 9372 4740 9388 4758 9370 4752 9357
      4740 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 224DEG 19KT 4744 9368

Kossen/Wolfe