Tornado Warning 6, NWS Dodge City, KS

819 
WWUS53 KDDC 262007
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
307 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSC051-165-262045-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210526T2045Z/
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
307 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTIES...
          
At 306 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Munjor, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Pfeifer and Munjor. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is ongoing. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement
or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9904 3870 9904 3866 9907 3871 9929
      3882 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 282DEG 8KT 3877 9923 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

SUGDEN

446 
WWUS53 KDDC 262024
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
324 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSC165-262034-
/O.CAN.KDDC.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210526T2045Z/
Rush KS-
324 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3883 9904 3870 9904 3870 9915 3874 9924
      3881 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 278DEG 11KT 3876 9916 

$$

KSC051-262045-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210526T2045Z/
Ellis KS-
324 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY...
    
At 324 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Pfeifer, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Ellis County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9904 3870 9904 3870 9915 3874 9924
      3881 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 278DEG 11KT 3876 9916 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

SUGDEN

498 
WWUS53 KDDC 262042
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
342 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSC051-262052-
/O.EXP.KDDC.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210526T2045Z/
Ellis KS-
342 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
345 PM CDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

LAT...LON 3883 9904 3870 9904 3870 9915 3874 9924
      3881 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 282DEG 8KT 3875 9911 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1226 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

From the overall look at the models and setup there appears a
could of scenarios for severe convection development. An upper jet
mid level wave will play a role in developing a surface response
across our area, pressure falls, southerly winds and development
of a warm front lifting north through the day. Models differ on
whether initial storms will develop off the eastern Colorado
and Panhandles dryline, moving rapidly northeast and eventually
ingesting higher theta-e/shear air over the trough/dryline area
along and north of I-70 more in the evening hours. All convective
threats will be in possible with any storm in the forecast area
late this afternoon and evening. The trend of the CAMs
FV3SAR/NAMnest is for supercell clusters spread eastward even
across the warm sector in late afternoon far west, early even east
a and developing in to large MCS/Linear systems by mid to early
evening. By stark contrast, the HRRR is interesting that it has
included runs that allowed the convection to miss our area,
modeling convection mainly north of the Smokey Hill river valley,
not entering the DDC cwa until Trego county.

Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s are likely this afternoon
with southeast gradient winds increasing through the day.

Overnight, additional convection may continue across the southern
counties after about 8 z though the 12-14 z timeframe - moisture
convergence along the leading edge of an equatorward moving cold
front which the FV3SAR/NAMnest and HRRR are all showing at this
time.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Thursday looks like one of the common events where a short window
of opportunity for severe weather happens across the red hills
region on the cold front/convergence zone. Most of the forecast area
will be under slightly lower dew point temperatures by about 5 to 10
degrees but still quite warm high in the  low to mid 80s. Model signal
scattered nocturnal thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain
of CO/NM Thursday after sunset feeding into the upslope flow but
generally finding their demise upon entering Kansas.

The cold front provides a respite to cooler 70s for highs on
Friday with much lower precipitation probabilities. Saturday
looks mainly dry but the pattern is likely to quickly change
Saturday night to a waa rain and thunderstorms/less unstable
airmass pattern followed by a continued cooling trend toward
Sunday through the rest of the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Moist upslope flow will continue today across southwest Kansas.
Gusty southeast winds will be at around 20 knots this afternoon.
Isolated to widely scattered late day convection will occur ahead
of an upper level trough as it crosses western Kansas. The high
probablity for convection to occur near an airport will be most
likely near Hays between 23z Wednesday and 03z Thursday. BUFR
soundings indicating a developing low level jet developing early
tonight with 50knot wind speeds possible around 2000ft AGL after
sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  63  84  50 /  20  30  20  10
GCK  85  60  82  49 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  89  61  85  52 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  88  62  86  52 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  85  62  81  47 /  30  60  20  10
P28  88  66  88  54 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
428 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-270930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
428 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 /328 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Afternoon and evening severe weather will be a possibility on
This Afternoon and evening as a conditionally unstable airmass is
in place, and a weak surface low over far southwest Kansas lifts
a stationary front northward as a warm front. Damaging wind, hail
to the size of baseballs and tornadoes are all possible between 3
pm and midnight.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Significant risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms may develop at the leading edge of cooler airmass,
over south central Kansas Thursday afternoon.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 3 pm this afternoon.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             HAYS                    38.88N 99.32W
05/26/2021  E2.75 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
214 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     HAIL             1 SSW HAYS              38.87N 99.32W
05/26/2021  M1.75 INCH       ELLIS              KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ELLIS                   38.94N 99.56W
05/26/2021                   ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             MUNJOR                  38.81N 99.27W
05/26/2021  E1.00 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
244 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             TOULON                  38.85N 99.24W
05/26/2021  E1.75 INCH       ELLIS              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HAIL             2 SSE HAYS              38.85N 99.30W
05/26/2021  M1.00 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

GT