Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Weak flow aloft from the southwest will continue to stream in
moisture from the Pacific and with weak forcing coming in from
central Oklahoma and from New Mexico we will continue to see pop
up storms through much of southwest Kansas with the exception of
potentially the areas near the I-70 corridor. Severe weather is
not expected as the CAPE values are generally under 1000 J/kg and
the shear values are still fairly low.

Tonight we should see the storms subside a bit as the areas of
forcing weaken however with the nebulous flow coming in from the
southwest we could once again see some forcing come in towards
sunrise with the potential of developing a few more pop up storms
mainly in our southeast areas. Overnight lows should fall into the
60s.

Wednesday after the potential morning convection most of the CAMs
are keeping the area fairly quiet through the day as the potential
forcing weakens once again. Overall weak flow aloft continues
through the day and by late afternoon into the evening we will see
another weak shortwave move in from the southwest and develop some
showers and storms around the Oklahoma border. It looks like
better forcing could come in later in the evening Wednesday so
overall the best chance of rain will come towards Wednesday night.
Highs tomorrow look to be a bit warmer with mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Whats left of the upper trough over the Midwest will get kicked to
the east tonight and Wednesday as another shortwave drops south out
of Canada into the Midwest. This will push a weak cool front south
into portions of eastern Colorado, southwest Kansas and Oklahoma by
Wednesday evening. The GFS and ECMWF models show showers and
thunderstorms increasing along and north of the frontal boundary
across southwest Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday. While the
models show increasing precipitable water values across the area,
instability is not very impressive so precipitation probabilities as
depicted by the NBM may be a little overdone.

The remainder of the week will see the frontal boundary sliding a
little farther southwest as surface high pressure settles southward
into the central Plains and Midwest. Any chances for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms should be confined to far
southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Winds will stay generally under 12 kts for the time period. A few
isolated storms will be around southwest Kansas this afternoon
however they will be very localized in nature so I didn't include
it in the TAF but a VCTS from a pop up storm is possible for GCK,
DDC, and LBL from 19Z-01Z. Late tonight cloud ceilings will fall
as low clouds and stratus develop for GCK, DDC, and LBL. We could
see brief flight conditions in MVFR or IFR from 10-13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  65  85  67 /  20  20  30  50
GCK  81  62  84  63 /  20  20  30  50
EHA  80  61  84  63 /  40  30  30  40
LBL  81  63  85  65 /  40  30  30  40
HYS  83  65  84  64 /  20  20  20  40
P28  77  68  85  69 /  60  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
440 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
440 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 /340 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly
over south central Kansas by this afternoon. A few of the storms
could produce brief heavy rain. Widespread hazardous weather is
not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across southwest
Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday. Hazardous weather is not
expected.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
150 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

KSZ085-291915-
Stevens KS-
150 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL STEVENS COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM CDT...

At 150 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Hugoton. This storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hugoton and Feterita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 10150 3734 10132 3721 10112 3703 10138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 291DEG 1KT 3717 10132

UMSCHEID