Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Cheyenne, WY

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
431 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEC045-142300-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-210814T2300Z/
Dawes NE-
431 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DAWES COUNTY...

At 431 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Chadron, moving southeast at 15 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR EATERN DAWES COUNTY!

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Dawes County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4266 10278 4284 10294 4292 10289 4293 10279
      4279 10279 4278 10277 4267 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 297DEG 13KT 4284 10283 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Claycomb

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
451 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEC045-142301-
/O.EXP.KCYS.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-210814T2300Z/
Dawes NE-
451 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAWES COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 500 PM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Cheyenne.

LAT...LON 4266 10278 4284 10294 4292 10289 4293 10279
      4279 10279 4278 10277 4267 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 296DEG 15KT 4281 10276 

$$

Claycomb

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
333 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 332 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440 issued for the Nebraska Panhandle
today through 11 PM this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Latest surface obs and satellite scanning convergence boundary
stretching across portions of southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle
with early convection across the the SD Black Hills and light echo
now over the Laramie Range. CAM guidance remains split in thinking
with the HRRR once again being the quiet outlier this afternoon
with limited convection across the Panhandle while the NAMNEST has
stayed consistent with more widespread thunderstorms from now
through late tonight. SPC continues a sliver of slight risk for
far eastern NE Panhandle with marginal including only eastern tier
of counties from Dawes south to Cheyenne.

Latest PRECIP sounding from CSU shows robust CAPE profile of over
1000 J/kg but lackluster 0-1 km shear of about 7 kts. CIN is the
kicker again today as inversions in the sounding and values into
the 150 to 200 J/kg range. So similar to yesterday, topography
will be key to help spur initiation. LLJ again could play a bit of
a spoiler tonight across the Panhandle with any remaining
convection and energy remaining. Highs today on the warmer side
from Friday into the upper 80s and low 90s for many.

Sunday will see an uptick in low and midlevel moisture coupled
with passing upper level shortwave that again will spur convection
perhaps more widespread including into SE WY. Highs near-similar
to today's forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Monday...With some decrease in low and mid level moisture, we should
see a decrease in late day shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Slightly cooler temperatures for most locations, notably across the
Nebraska Panhandle.

Tuesday...Even warmer temperatures as the flow aloft becomes
southwest with 700 mb temperatures near 18 Celsius. Looks like
enough low and mid level moisture for isolated to scattered late day
thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes scattered to
numerous in the afternoon and evening with a monsoonal moisture
increase, and with a cold front progressing into our counties.
Somewhat cooler temperatures on tap with considerably more cloud
cover and increased precipitation chances.

Thursday...Cooler temperatures expected in the wake of a passing
shortwave trough aloft and its associated cold front. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will likely decrease by the evening as
more stable air moves into the region.

Friday...Northwest flow aloft continues. Still looks like
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon and evening with adequate low and mid level moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

VFR conditions across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle
with some clouds beginning to pop up. There are thunderstorms in
the forecast, but the location, spread, and intensity are all very
uncertain as of right now. A low level jet will impact KCDR once
again tonight into early tomorrow with gusts of 25 to 30 knots
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Limited fire weather conditions next few days with isolated to
scattered chances of precipitation coupled with lackluster winds
although min RHs will teeter if not go into critical conditions.
With thunderstorm chances, lightning sparked fires remain a
possibility.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...LK
FIRE WEATHER...WM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
138 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-151200-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
138 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across the Nebraska Panhandle and over the Snowy, Sierra
Madre and southern Laramie Ranges. A few of the storms over the
Nebraska Panhandle may become strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible nearly every day, with the most coverage on Wednesday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant
weather to the National Weather Service in Cheyenne.

Rubin/WM