Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
254 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front closing in on the Route 219 corridor in
Western PA this midday hour will push east across the Central
Mountains and Susq Region this afternoon and early this evening
bringing scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Drier and slightly cooler air will move in for Saturday. Expect
the mugginess to return on Sunday and persist through much of
next week, with rounds of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
Sunday through Tuesday, some of which could contain gusty winds
and locally heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface cold front extending from near KBFD south-southwest to
just west of KDUJ and KLBE at 1530Z will be sliding east across
our CWA this afternoon through early this evening. Extensive
stratus earlier today has kept CAPE relatively in check so far,
but expect sfc based CAPE values to rise by another approx 500
j/kg this afternoon with values topping out around 2000 j/kg in
some places across the Central Ridge and Valley/Susq Region this
afternoon.

Numerous showers and isolated strong to possibly severe TSRA
will be found across the eastern half of our CWA between 20Z Fri-
02Z Sat with the target area for the most robust updrafts (and
DCAPE AOA 1000 j/kg) being near and to the SE of I-81 in South-
Central PA. This coincides with SPC's MRGL outlook area.

Mid to late afternoon high temps today won't be far off
yesterday's numbers, and we're still pretty muggy. NAM/3KM NAM
and many CAMs crank the CAPEs to 1000-1550 J/KG for the eastern
half of the area in the aftn before and along the cfropa.

Thus, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of the TSRA
get pretty tall (35-40kft) and make gusty wind and/or small
hail. Chatted to SPC and they will most likely expand the MRGL
risk back into the eastern part of CTP CWA with the next update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of high pressure and associated drier post-frontal
airmass should provide fair/dry weather tonight and through the
day on Saturday. Min/Max temps will be near to slightly below
daily climo for early July. The humidity will be much lower than
lately. Just an isolated shower is possible in the aftn to the
NE of IPT at the base of a minor upper trough.

The humidity starts to rise late Sat night as clouds and a few
SHRA move in from the SW on WAA aloft. The warm front should
arrive in the srn counties by Sunday morning. Mins will hold in
the m50s N and m-u60s around Harrisburg.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level low and surface warm front will advance
northward through PA during the day Sunday prompting convection.
Storms may liner into Sunday night, followed by more periods of
afternoon showers and storms until Tuesday.

We will be on the NW fringe of an upper level ridge and
associated increase in heat and humidity once again, though this
time the heat will be tempered by some bouts of showers and
TSRA and somewhat lower Mid level heights and thicknesses.
Showers and storms may produce locally heavy rainfall as PWAT
values surge to 1.5 to 1.75 inches overnight Saturday night and
peak between 1.75 and 2 inches Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday
looks to display some improvement to the rain situation as the
upper trough to our west flattens and lifts NE across New York
State. It will still be very warm to hot...but slightly less
humid with PWAT values slipping to under 1.5 inches in most
places (except for the far SE).

By the end of the week, a series of shortwaves will slide
through our area under quasi-zonal upper level flow. The weekend
seems to show improvement from the wet and humid pattern, but
there is a lot of uncertainty that far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will push east through the airfields and bring
a few showers/t-storms this afternoon/early evening with cigs
trending MVFR to VFR over the western 1/2 of the airspace
through early to mid afternoon, before drier air advects in from
the NW and helps to erode and lift the cloud bases up a few KFT.

Low cigs and fog are probable over the western 1/3 of the
airspace late tonight into early Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Sat...AM low cigs psbl wrn 1/3. Bcmg VFR. Spotty PM shower
possible north.

Sun-Tue...Scattered showers and t-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Wagner
AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1141 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-045-101545-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-
1141 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An upper level trough over the midwest combined with very warm and
humid air across our region, and the close proximity of a surface
warm front will bring rounds of thunderstorms each afternoon Sunday
through Tuesday. Some of the storms will likely become strong to
severe, and will be accompanied by strong gusty wind and locally
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ028-036-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-101545-
Juniata-Franklin-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
1141 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small
hail are possible this afternoon into early the evening as a weak
cold front pushes east across the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An upper level trough over the midwest combined with very warm and
humid air across our region, and the close proximity of a surface
warm front will bring rounds of thunderstorms each afternoon Sunday
through Tuesday. Some of the storms will likely become strong to
severe, and will be accompanied by strong gusty wind and locally
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
336 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

PAZ027-028-050-056-092000-
Perry PA-Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-
336 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY...JUNIATA...
MIFFLIN...AND SNYDER COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Lewistown, moving east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Burnham, Highland Park, Yeagertown, Mcalisterville,
McClure, Richfield, Juniata Terrace, Mexico, Alfarata, Walnut,
Mifflintown, Port Royal, Thompsontown, Millerstown, Mifflin,
Maitland, East Salem and Wagner.

LAT...LON 4052 7757 4065 7760 4074 7714 4051 7709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 264DEG 31KT 4059 7749

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
349 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

PAZ065-092015-
York PA-
349 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Parkville, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hanover, Parkville, Red Lion, Shrewsbury, Codorus, Stewartstown, Glen
Rock, Pennville, Jacobus, Cross Roads, Railroad, Loganville,
Winterstown, Seven Valleys, Felton and Glenville.

LAT...LON 3972 7700 3983 7700 3990 7656 3972 7656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 264DEG 28KT 3977 7694

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
402 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

PAZ037-041-042-092030-
Sullivan PA-Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-
402 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SULLIVAN...NORTHERN
LYCOMING...AND TIOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 401 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Buttonwood, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ralston, Buttonwood and Liberty.

LAT...LON 4160 7687 4158 7676 4144 7673 4147 7715
      4159 7714 4161 7688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 263DEG 22KT 4154 7707

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
404 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

PAZ028-056-057-092030-
Perry PA-Juniata PA-Dauphin PA-
404 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY...JUNIATA...AND
DAUPHIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Mcalisterville, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millersburg, Newport, New Buffalo, Ickesburg, Liverpool, Halifax,
Thompsontown and Millerstown.

LAT...LON 4059 7731 4065 7696 4064 7694 4063 7695
      4061 7692 4043 7692 4043 7736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 263DEG 27KT 4054 7723

Evanego