Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
827 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cooler but still humid weather is expected on
Thursday with numerous showers and thunderstorms and locally
heavy downpours. The precipitation pattern trends drier into the
weekend before unsettled weather returns by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Widespread severe event continues with the bulk of the damage
associated with bow echo moving SW to NE thru the Laurels and
central mtns. Damage also occurred with a few nrn tier cells.
Deep convection continues to develop off to the west and even in
the southern tier. This new development will be weaker than the
current crop as we will quickly lose heating and CAPE. However,
they will be over the west and northwest where some heavy rain
has fallen today, and we'll need to keep aware of flooding. Have
kept the SE few counties largely dry for the overnight, but a
stray SHRA cannot be ruled out.

Prev...
Near term focus is on severe convective potential this afternoon
into this evening over parts of central PA. Very warm/hot and
humid throughout with potentially unstable airmass and mean layer
CAPEs of 1400-2000 J/kg. Mid level cap is again in place and has
stunted the vertical growth of cumulus field over most of
central PA, but that is changing as we reach mid afternoon. A
slow moving shortwave tracking into southwest PA is helping to
break the cap as a ribbon of 700 mb winds of 20-25 kts
propagates newd this afternoon. Convection has been ongoing
since late this morning over southeast OH and WV, but so far
unable to reach into the Laurels until very recently with the
first shower of the day building along the Somerset/Bedford
county border with MD. Further destablization is expected this
afternoon, but will be wrestling the cap. Potential is there for
strong wind gusts given robust DCAPE values, so this evolution
will be watched in time for possible WW issuance.

Farther to the NW and NE, Deep layer shear is more supportive of
organized line segments and damaging winds, and SVR WW extend
into far northwest PA (just west of Warren County), as well as
from the BGM area through the Endless Mountains to the Mid Susq
River Valley. Storms with isolated wind damage and locally
heavy rainfall expected to develop this afternoon and evening,
but similar to Tue aftn, the capping inversion will be difficult
to overcome the farther south you look. Thermodynamics (CAPE)
will be the main catalyst with ample moisture and instability
fueling thunderstorm development...and still some isolated
strong storms are possible.

Despite good storm motions, air mass is capable of locally
heavy rain rates given high dewpoints and PWs around 1.5 inches.
WPC D1 MRGL risk ERO (1 out of 4) remains in place through this
evening with isolated short-duration flood threat for the most
flashy locations that can experience repeat rounds or west-
east oriented line segments.

The gradual uptick in convection will last through late
afternoon and early evening, followed by coverage that could
last into late evening or just beyond midnight. Model blends
paint the highest precip probs across the NW 1/2 of the area
late tonight into early Thursday morning. It will be another
muggy night in CPA with minTs in the 65-75F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Focus shifts to heavy rain potential on Thursday as the approach
of mid/upper trough through the Great Lakes combined with moist
south/southwest flow ahead of TS Elsa continues to raise
concerns about potential heavy rainfall on Thursday. An overall
western trend has continued in model guidance today, raising
some concerns for my far southeastern counties to potentially be
on the periphery of heavy rains. There remains uncertainty in
how convective bands may setup, leading to low confidence in
how far west precip trends will evolve. WPC D2 SLGT risk ERO (2
out of 4) includes the eastern 1/3 of the CWA. We will continue
to monitor with heavy rain/ff becoming the primary hazards on
Thursday. As of now, PHI and LWX will be bordering our southeast
counties with Flash Flood Watches as 2 to locally 4" is
targeting areas just ESE of my counties.

Increased cloud cover and anticipated widespread shower
activity will shave about 7-10 degrees from recent highs with
fcst maxTs in the mid 70s to mid/upper 80s. It will remain humid
with dewpoints holding in the 65-70F range. Latest NHC track
takes TS Elsa off the NJ coast by 12Z Friday but the cone of
uncertainty has been brought a bit farther to the west so we may
see some rain from Elsa clip the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers may linger on Friday, but coverage should be much less
than Thursday. Conditions should dry out into Friday night.
Models are now suggesting we may not be "out of the woods" with
a few showers now possible into Saturday due to persistent upper
troughing. 24hrMaxTChange is pretty much neutral Thu into
Friday with the most noticeable airmass change set to occur
Friday night with fcst lows in the mid 50s/60s.
Conditions on Saturday improve slightly, with another chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Sunday/Monday, another
upper-level trough and surface low-pressure system will
contribute to showers and thunderstorms for the start of next
week. Unsettled pattern looks to continue into the middle of
next week with multiple shortwaves bringing the chance for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z package includes more-specific timing on TSRA for IPT. Most
other terminals have less of a chc for TS for the rest of the
night. Will keep VCTS in for JST and AOO for a brief period this
evening. Much of the night will hold only patchy showers. With
the widespread rain, some clearing, high dewpoints, and light
wind, we'll probably have some decent fog develop. Almost
everyone is VFR right now as the showers are in between.

Showers pop up again as forcing moves in from the west later
tonight/Thurs AM. Will add mentions of TS into all terminals for
the latter half of the day (18Z onward).

Prev...
Widespread VFR expected early this afternoon, though we should
see an increase in SHRA/TSRA late this afternoon and evening.
Expecting convection to start first in the southwest and spread
north and east through the evening. Any TSRA could lead to brief
reductions in visibility and gusty winds. Most terminals should
be dry tonight, though a few SHRA could persist across the
west overnight.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...Occasional restrictions likely in SHRA/TSRA.

Sat...Improved conditions, although a few SHRA/TSRA remain possible.

Sun...Chances of afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
At this time, local storm reports (LSRs) are not able to be
transitted via normal method. Multiple offices report the same
problem. Sent them via another method. Warning and other
statements are impacted by this trouble.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert/Travis
AVIATION...Dangelo/Martin/Travis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

PAZ064>066-081845-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible from
isolated strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-081845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds are possible this
afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-081845-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are likely this afternoon and
evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. Locally heavy
rainfall may result in isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ018-019-024>028-033>035-045-049-050-081845-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-
242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible this afternoon
and evening. An isolated damaging wind gust is possible. Locally
heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-056-057-059-063-081845-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible this afternoon
and evening. An isolated damaging wind gust is possible. Locally
heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
825 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

PAZ019-027-028-049-050-080100-
Union PA-Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-Southern Centre PA-
825 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF UNION...JUNIATA...
MIFFLIN...SNYDER...AND SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

At 825 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Belltown, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodward, Middleburg, McClure, Beaver Springs, Paxtonville,
Troxelville, Alfarata, Belltown, Weikert, Snyder-Middleswart State
Park, Laurelton Center, Beavertown and Wagner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 7741 4065 7750 4098 7731 4079 7699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 224DEG 26KT 4068 7738

Banghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
832 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE LEONARD HARRISON  41.69N 77.40W
07/07/2021                   TIOGA              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
839 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND GST     MONTOURSVILLE           41.24N 76.92W
07/07/2021  M64 MPH          LYCOMING           PA   ASOS

            KIPT MEASURED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST 64 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE LEONARD HARRISON  41.69N 77.40W
07/07/2021                   TIOGA              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES ACROSS THE ROAD.

0823 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARDEN VIEW             41.26N 77.05W
07/07/2021                   LYCOMING           PA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

0818 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKLAND                 41.99N 77.31W
07/07/2021                   TIOGA              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WIRES DOWN.

0817 PM     TSTM WND GST     MONTOURSVILLE           41.24N 76.92W
07/07/2021  M64 MPH          LYCOMING           PA   ASOS

            KIPT MEASURED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST 64 MPH.

0747 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STATE COLLEGE           40.79N 77.86W
07/07/2021                   CENTRE             PA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
847 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
       ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE LEONARD HARRISON  41.69N 77.40W
07/07/2021                   TIOGA              PA   FIRE
DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES ACROSS THE ROAD.

0823 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARDEN VIEW             41.26N 77.05W
07/07/2021                   LYCOMING           PA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; POWER POLES
BROKEN.

0818 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKLAND                 41.99N 77.31W
07/07/2021                   TIOGA              PA   FIRE
DEPT/RESCUE

            WIRES DOWN.

0817 PM     TSTM WND GST     MONTOURSVILLE           41.24N 76.92W
07/07/2021  M64 MPH          LYCOMING           PA   ASOS

            KIPT MEASURED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST 64 MPH.

0747 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STATE COLLEGE           40.79N 77.86W
07/07/2021                   CENTRE             PA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; POWER POLES
BROKEN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
849 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

PAZ035-036-080115-
Fulton PA-Franklin PA-
849 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 849 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Loudon, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Thomas, McConnellsburg, Fort Loudon and Fannettsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 7802 4010 7793 4010 7791 4006 7787
      4010 7784 4004 7767 3987 7785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 206DEG 15KT 3994 7786

Banghoff