Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the region tonight and into Saturday.
After one more hot day today, the cold front will usher in a
refreshing reprieve from the heat by Sunday. Temperatures will
rebound early next week however, with highs returning to above
normal by mid-week. Chance of rain increases late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will approach today but won't pass through the
forecast area until Saturday morning. Temperatures today will
continue to be well above normal, with highs in the low to mid
90s. Moisture advection ahead of the front will be weak, and
warm air aloft will only support weak CAPE values. There is also
a weak surface trough located across the SC Piedmont extending
into the lower Savannah River Area based on the surface
analysis. This will allow for isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm through the day.

Overnight, the cold front and associated upper level trough will
enter the forecast area from the west, and we should see an
uptick in convective coverage. A prefrontal trough and enhanced
upper level support may allow a few additional showers to
develop despite the generally unfavorable diurnal timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Anomalously deep (1-2 standard deviations) upper level trough
over the Ohio Valley will amplify in the eastern CONUS and move
across the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas by Sunday afternoon. At
the surface, a cold front will be moving through the region
Saturday and possibly hang up in the eastern Midlands in the
afternoon. Although the deeper moisture and stronger instability
appears to move to the coastal plain relatively early in the
day, the CAM models suggest convection will re-develop in the
afternoon across the east near the front. Some synoptic upper
level support from amplifying trough and associated 250 mb
jet/short wave rotating through northern GA/into Upstate SC. A
few showers may re-develop across the northern Midlands in the
evening as a secondary and stronger cold front back-doors into
the area between 00z-06z Sunday. Gusty winds Saturday afternoon
to around 20 mph. Just slightly cooler Saturday afternoon in the
mid to upper 80s as weak cold advection develops. As secondary
front moves into the area with gusty winds in the evening. Low
level moisture will increase overnight...may be some brief light
rain north and expect mainly overcast skies through Sunday
morning with strato-cu and cold advection. Overnight min temps
may stay up a bit due to mixing, mid 50s to low 60s. Conditions
should improve Sunday afternoon as upper low lifts northeast
toward the Mid Atlantic coast. Went with the mos consensus for
max temps Sunday, so low 70s north to low 80s in the CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridge south of the area with general southwest flow
aloft during the period. Temperatures will slowly begin
increasing once again through the week as the air mass modifies.
By midweek the ensembles are indicating increasing moisture
across the area as another amplified trough approaches from the
Mississippi Valley. By late Thursday into Friday, the ensembles
indicate relatively high probability of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period.

A surface low and associated cold front will begin its approach
from the northwest. This will allow some isolated showers or
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Coverage should be limited, so
confidence is low in any impacts to the terminals. Winds will
be stronger than recent days, with southwesterly winds between
10 and 15 knots with gusts upwards of 20 knots expected.

Winds should stay in the 8-12 knot range out of the southwest as the
front approaches tonight. Clouds should generally increase as we
approach the end of this period. Expect isolated convection to
continue through at least the evening as the front moves
through.

On Saturday, the deepest moisture and the surface front will be
near the eastern FA. There may be some isolated or scattered
showers and thunderstorms until drier air moves in later in the
day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Cig restrictions possible
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
307 AM EDT Fri May 28 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-290715-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
307 AM EDT Fri May 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
503 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

SCZ020-021-026>028-282200-
Fairfield SC-Lexington SC-Newberry SC-Richland SC-Saluda SC-
503 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...Showers and an Isolated Thunderstorm Will Impact Portions of
western Fairfield...northwestern Lexington...Newberry...
northwestern Richland and eastern Saluda Counties Until 600 PM
EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Murray Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 500 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
showers and an isolated thunderstorm along a line extending from
near Newberry County Airport to Ridge Spring, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...Newberry, Lake
Murray and Vicinity, Prosperity, Jenkinsville, Monticello, Dreher
Island State Park, Blair, Chapin, Little Mountain and Pomaria.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Murray should move to shore and seek shelter. Strong,
erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 66 and 100.

LAT...LON 3455 8126 3402 8117 3383 8169 3437 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 239DEG 29KT 3430 8170 3387 8167