Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Billings, MT

800 
WWUS85 KBYZ 100235
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Billings MT
835 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MTZ127>133-WYZ274-110245-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FW.W.0004.210610T1600Z-210611T0400Z/
Golden Valley County/Musselshell county-Yellowstone County-
Crow Indian Reservation/Bighorn Canyon Rec Area-
Northern Rosebud/Northern Treasure Counties-
Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation/Ashland Ranger District
Custer Natl Forest-Custer County-
Sioux Ranger District Custer National Forest-Sheridan County-
835 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY...

* IMPACTS: Low humidities, hot temperatures, unseasonably warm
  temperatures, strong gusty winds, wind shift with a cold front
  will create erratic fire behavior. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
   In North Central WY Fire Zone...274.
   In South Central MT Fire Zones...127...128...129.
   In Southeast MT Fire Zones...130...131...132.
   In Southeast MT and Northwest SD Fire Zone...133.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
   In Central MT...Golden Valley...Musselshell.
   In North Central WY...Sheridan.
   In Northwest SD...Harding.
   In South Central MT...Big Horn...Carbon...Yellowstone.
   In Southeast MT...Carter...Custer...Fallon...Powder River
                     Rosebud...Treasure.

* HUMIDITY: 10 to 18 percent.

* TEMPERATURES: Highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s.

* WIND: West 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* COLD FRONT: Cold front will push through Thursday afternoon and 
  evening and switch winds to the northwest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$


http://weather.gov/Billings

699 
WWUS85 KBYZ 101006
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Billings MT
406 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MTZ127>133-WYZ274-110400-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FW.W.0004.210610T1600Z-210611T0400Z/
Golden Valley County/Musselshell county-Yellowstone County-
Crow Indian Reservation/Bighorn Canyon Rec Area-
Northern Rosebud/Northern Treasure Counties-
Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation/Ashland Ranger District
Custer Natl Forest-Custer County-
Sioux Ranger District Custer National Forest-Sheridan County-
406 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* IMPACTS: Low humidities, hot temperatures, strong gusty winds,
  and wind shift with a cold front will create erratic fire
  behavior. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
   In North Central WY Fire Zone...274.
   In South Central MT Fire Zones...127...128...129.
   In Southeast MT Fire Zones...130...131...132.
   In Southeast MT and Northwest SD Fire Zone...133.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
   In Central MT...Golden Valley...Musselshell.
   In North Central WY...Sheridan.
   In Northwest SD...Harding.
   In South Central MT...Big Horn...Carbon...Yellowstone.
   In Southeast MT...Carter...Custer...Fallon...Powder River
                     Rosebud...Treasure.

* HUMIDITY: 10 to 18 percent.

* TEMPERATURES: Highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s.

* WIND: West to northwest 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* COLD FRONT: Cold front will push through this afternoon and 
  evening and switch winds to the northwest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/Billings

258 
WWUS85 KBYZ 110330
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Billings MT
930 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MTZ127>133-WYZ274-110430-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210611T0400Z/
Golden Valley County/Musselshell county-Yellowstone County-
Crow Indian Reservation/Bighorn Canyon Rec Area-
Northern Rosebud/Northern Treasure Counties-
Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation/Ashland Ranger District
Custer Natl Forest-Custer County-
Sioux Ranger District Custer National Forest-Sheridan County-
930 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Although it will be windy overnight, temperatures have cooled, and
relative humidity values have risen. Therefore, the National 
Weather Service in Billings has cancelled the Red Flag Warning.

$$


http://weather.gov/Billings

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
346 AM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night...

Quite weather day today behind a shortwave trough that generated
a great deal of severe weather over northeast Montana and the
western Dakotas on Tuesday. Temperatures will be warmer as highs
approach 90 degrees. A weak shortwave will graze the far
northwest zones this afternoon and tonight and could generate an
isolated shower or thunderstorm there, otherwise the forecast will
be dry. Thursday will be much more active.

A potent shortwave trough will swing across the area Thursday
afternoon and evening. This trough looks pretty strong for this
time of year and should provide adequate lift to generate
showers and thundestorms. Some storms could be severe over parts
of central and southeast (mainly north and east of Billings
Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind looks to be the
primary threat with highly inverted V soundings and a strongly
unstable environment above the dry layer, but hail also a
possibility, especially over the far east. Fire weather and strong
winds will be an issue too.

A dry slot will work into parts of southeast Montana during the
afternoon and drop humidity into the teens to near 10 percent over
parts of the southeast. A strong cold front will drive across the
forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
This will have very strong surface pressure rises associated with
it, and with 850-700mb winds of 50kts, may be able to tap into
that wind as the front moves through. Winds cold also get
accelerated by convection developing. Will issue a High Wind Watch
for Thursday afternoon and night for central and eastern zones,
as could have gusts of 50-60mph along and behind the front. The
combination of low humidity and strong winds will cause fire
weather concerns too, so will issue a Fire Weather Watch for
Thursday for the same general area. TWH

Friday through Tuesday...

By Friday precipitation chances will be done for the area through
at least mid-week next week. Temperatures will remain somewhat
moderated Friday behind the wave that moves through Thursday.
Highs will only be generally be in the 70s. These more moderate
temperatures will not last long as through the remainder of the
forecast, a strong ridge of high pressure will build across much
of the western US. This will see high temperatures climb from the
mid 80s Saturday to near 100 degrees by Tuesday. With the high
pressure not expecting any wind concerns. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will general prevail through the forecast.
However, clearing skies and light winds could produce patchy
fog/stratus, with localized IFR conditions, for areas east of
KBIL to KSHR through mid morning. Gust to 20 knots are possible
during the afternoon for most locations. Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 058/089 049/077 052/085 055/091 060/096 062/100
    0/U 14/T    40/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
LVM 086 052/079 040/074 047/081 049/088 053/091 055/096
    1/N 16/T    40/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    00/U
HDN 093 057/094 048/077 050/087 054/093 060/098 060/101
    0/U 12/T    40/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/G
MLS 089 067/098 052/076 052/086 055/090 062/095 065/098
    0/U 02/T    41/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
4BQ 092 068/098 051/076 053/086 056/090 063/094 064/096
    0/U 01/N    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
BHK 087 065/097 050/075 050/085 054/088 058/091 062/094
    0/U 02/T    51/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
SHR 092 059/093 046/077 050/086 052/091 059/094 059/097
    0/U 01/N    30/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
      late Thursday night FOR ZONES
      29>33-36-37-57-58-138-169-173-235.
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday morning through
      Thursday evening FOR ZONES 127>133.
WY...High Wind Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
      late Thursday night FOR ZONE 199.
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday morning through
      Thursday evening FOR ZONE 274.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
428 AM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MTZ029>034-036-037-040-042-056>058-063>068-138-139-141-169>173-228-
235-WYZ198-199-101100-
Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-Fallon-
Northern Stillwater-Powder River-Carter-Northern Park-
Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-Northern Big Horn-
Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-Livingston Area-
Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-Crazy Mountains-
Southern Big Horn-Southeastern Carbon-Northern Sweet Grass-
Bighorn Canyon-Northern Carbon-Pryor/Northern Bighorn Mountains-
Melville Foothills-Northeastern Yellowstone-Southern Wheatland-
Southwestern Yellowstone-Northeast Bighorn Mountains-
Sheridan Foothills-
428 AM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana...southeast Montana and north
central Wyoming.

* WHAT...Severe thunderstorms possible. Also, strong wind gusts
  behind a cold front.

* WHERE...Much of southern Montana and northern Wyoming.

* WHEN...Thursday afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A cold front will move through the area and
  generate strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary threat from
  storms is damaging wind, but large hail is also possible.

* ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS...The cold front will create west to
  northwest winds gusting 45-55 mph. The strong winds will combine
  with low humidity to cause fire weather concerns for locations
  east of line from Roundup to Billings to Sheridan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to stay tuned for further updates on this potential
hazardous weather.

Additional graphics can be found at:

https://www.weather.gov/billings

&&