Alert archive / Massachusetts / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 118, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

December 7, 2021

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this small craft advisory at Dec 7, 2021, 12:56 AM EST. It was in force for 26 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 7, 2021, 12:56 AM EST (05:56 UTC)
Expired
Dec 8, 2021, 3:00 AM EST
In force
26 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

The text

As transmitted.

811 
WHUS71 KBOX 070556
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1256 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

ANZ230-236-071500-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.211207T0600Z-211207T1500Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
1256 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T1200Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
1256 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254>256-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T1200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1256 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 7 to 12 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T1200Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
1256 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-071200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
1256 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
627 
WHUS71 KBOX 071013
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
513 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

ANZ231-251-071500-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211207T1500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
513 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254>256-072315-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211208T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
513 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-071400-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211207T1400Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
513 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-072300-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-211207T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211207T2300Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
513 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-071500-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211207T1500Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
513 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  around 3 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
645 
WHUS71 KBOX 071432
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
932 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

ANZ230-231-236-251-071545-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211207T1500Z/
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Narragansett Bay-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
932 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and seas have diminished below small craft advisory
thresholds. Therefore, the small craft advisory has been
cancelled.

$$

ANZ250-254>256-080345-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211208T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
932 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-072300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211207T2300Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
932 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
222 
WHUS71 KBOX 072106
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
406 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

ANZ235-237-072215-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211207T2300Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
406 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and seas have dropped below small craft advisory thresholds.
Therefore, the small craft advisory has been cancelled.

$$

ANZ250-072215-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211208T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
406 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and seas have dropped below small craft advisory thresholds.
Therefore, the small craft advisory has been cancelled.

$$

ANZ254>256-080300-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211208T0300Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
406 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 5 to 10 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and 
  Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, 
  Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending 
  out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Frank
389 
WHUS71 KBOX 080258
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
958 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

ANZ256-080400-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211208T0300Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
958 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

ANZ254-255-080800-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0118.000000T0000Z-211208T0800Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
958 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 5 to 10 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and 
  Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, 
  Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending 
  out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 6, 10:40 PM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 6, 10:40 PM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1040 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front sweeps across the region this evening, which
will be accompanied by another period of showers and strong winds.
Drier and colder air arrives tonight into Tuesday. A coastal storm
may bring some accumulating snowfall across southern New England
Wednesday into Wednesday night, but there is considerable
uncertainty. Dry weather returns Thursday before we become more
unsettled late this week and heading into the weekend with warmer
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front continue to move east across our region late this
evening. Expecting this front to move offshore just after
midnight. Peak wind gusts around 45-50 mph have been observed,
and should remain the limit for the next few hours. Skies should
clear quickly from west to east after midnight. The exception
will be out toward the Berkshires, where some lake-effect clouds
may spill over the Berkshires into the CT River valley late
tonight.

Minor tweaks to temperatures to bring them back in line with
observed trends.

7 PM Update...

The precipitation associated with the approaching cold front is
slightly more progressive than forecast this afternoon, looking
towards an arrival time in Boston between 01Z and 02Z.

Rain has currently overspread the I-91 corridor, and
precipitation should start in the Worcester area in the next
hour or so.

Precipitation will wrap up quickly from 04-06Z, west to east,
yielding a rapid improvement in ceilings. By daybreak, the sun
will be shining across much of the area. Other than the more
progressive nature of the cold front, the forecast remains in
good shape. Only minor adjustments were made to reflect
current temperatures and dewpoints.

3:45 PM Update...

Warm sector has overspread all of RI, CT and most of MA with
the upper CT river valley in western MA the exception. Even here
by 3 pm or so warm air should invade this region. Temps have
warmed into the low 60s in the I-95 corridor including PVD-BOS,
with OWD the warm spot at 63. These warm surface temps are
increasing blyr mixing with gusts up to 40 mph at times. Peak
wind this hour 36 kt at OWD. Prefrontal SW winds will continue
to increase into early this evening up to 40 kt/46 mph. Greatest
likelihood is across Cape Cod and Islands, but isolated gusts
up to 45 mph or so also possible across interior RI, eastern MA
into the Worcester Hills. However, not inclined to expand wind
advisory given marginal wind speeds and now bare trees. Hence
very little if any impact.

Greater concern is possible broken fine line of low top
convection this evening, which hi res guidance has been
indicating for several model runs. As trough continues to
amplify, surface low over Quebec continues to deepen, enhancing
low level convergence along and head of its cold front. As this
boundary moves across southern New England (00z-05z from west to
east) it will be accompanied by brief downpours and an abrupt
wind shift to the west with brief isolated gusts up to 50 mph
possible. Duration will likely only be an hour or two along and
immediately behind the front and areal coverage will not be
widespread. For these reasons, will likely hold off on wind
advisory for post frontal winds, and issue a long fused special
weather statement (SPS) to increase public awareness for brief and
isolated wind gusts up to 50 mph this evening. In addition, rain
showers may briefly end as an hour or two of snow showers across
northwest MA. Little if any accumulation expected.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

345 PM update...

Overnight...

Later this evening and especially after midnight, post frontal
airmass overspreads the region and will be accompanied by strong
cold air advection, with 850 mb temps crashing from about +10C at
00z this evening, down to -9C 12z Tue! This will yield morning lows
just before sunrise of 30-35, with upper 20s western MA. Gusty west
winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, will provide colder wind
chills.

Tuesday...

Dry but chilly westerly flow with winds diminishing in the
afternoon. -10C at 850 mb and good mixing will support highs only in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, about 3-5 degs cooler than normal.
Gusty west winds in the morning will enhance the chilly conditions.
Morning sunshine gives way to a mix of strato-cu and mid/high clouds
per model soundings and HREF cloud cover. Low risk for a few lake
effect snow streamers spilling over the Berks into western MA/CT.
Otherwise dry weather prevails.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night...

Dry but chilly night with 1025 mb high cresting over New England.
Although increasing clouds will level off temps second half of the
night, so min temps likely realized in the evening, with lows in the
20s to around 30 in Boston. Increasing warm advection aloft may
yield the onset of light snow toward daybreak Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights

Highlights

* Light accumulating snow potential for Wed and Wed night. While
  significant or high totals not are expected, adverse impact
  to the Wed PM commute is becoming more likely.

* High pressure builds in for Thursday, light rain/snow chances
  increase Friday

* VERY mild Saturday afternoon into early Sunday with shower chances
  both days ahead of strong cold front Sunday.

Wednesday into Wednesday Night:

We continue to monitor developments regarding a passing coastal low
Wednesday into Wednesday night that may bring a light-accumulating
snow to Southern New England.

Fairly robust shortwave disturbance aloft induces cyclogenesis near
the coastal mid-Atlantic region early Wed. While the exact storm
track is still somewhat uncertain, today's 12z ensemble means are
showing some clustering to a position just south of the 40N/70W
benchmark late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The suite of
deterministic models are also showing some convergence towards
this storm track. Such a track normally favors the I-95 corridor
on south and east for the most precip/snow. However there are a
number of competing and conflicting factors which will affect
total snowfall, including initially marginal surface temps, time
of day and pretty limited snow growth/dendrite potential given
a fairly high dendritic growth layer. Another more local factor
is that water temperatures are still rather mild (upper 40s)
which could cut into accumulations for areas along our eastern
and southern coasts, including Greater Boston.

Looking at NBM snow probabilities, at the 50% level they are around
1 to 2 inches areawide; a reasonable worse case, presently viewed as
an unlikely outcome given the more-offshore storm track, would
support a widespread plowable snow between 3-6 inches. But as
mentioned, these values don't necessarily tell the whole story, as
rather light to at times moderate precip intensity will likely make
it difficult for any snow to stick on pavement until later Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

Given significant variance in model QPF, utilized WPC's QPF which
brings a quarter to a third of an inch for southeast New England,
with as little as one-tenth of an inch further into interior MA/CT
more removed from the cyclone's track but also deeper into the
colder air. Using a 9-11:1 SLR, early snow totals are in the 1-2
inch range.

At this juncture and given uncertainties as mentioned above, fairly
minor impact is presently anticipated, primarily to travel during
the Wednesday late-afternoon/evening commute.

Thursday into Friday...

High pressure builds into our area Thursday behind the departing
coastal low that affects our region on Wednesday/Wednesday night.
While temperatures rebound slightly compared to observed highs on
Wednesday, we get a taste of true meteorological winter as high
temps remain below 40 across the entire region. Clear skies in the
morning will give way to partial sunshine in the afternoon as a weak
shortwave riding on the preceding edge of a building ridge that
moves in for Friday. Winds 5-10 kt and increasing sky cover
overnight Thursday will keep lows from dropping too far, generally
into the mid 20s and low 30s region wide.

Shower/flurry chances Friday morning usher in a warming trend Friday
as the aforementioned ridge continues to push towards southern New
England. High temperatures will hover a few degrees either side of
average, with southeast MA, and much of RI making a strong push for
50-55F by Friday evening. Surging dewpoints from the south and
southwesterly flow will carry the warming trend through Friday
night, as high temperatures may actually be achieved just before
midnight Friday into Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday...

Guidance is honing in on a strong 570 mb ridge centering itself over
New England next weekend. 925 mb temperatures in the range of +10 to
+15C will support surface temperatures between 55-60F for what
appears to be a 18-24 hour period from 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday. A
potent cold front, associated with a low that will pass far to our
northwest, will cause temperatures to crash during the latter part
of the weekend, as 925 mb temperatures plummet from +15 to -2 C in
just a matter of hours. High southwest winds may precede this cold
front as a low level jet develops across southeastern New England.
At present, the most aggressive guidance, the GFS, shows 70 kt winds
at 925 mb mid-day Sunday. Other long term guidance pins 60 kt 925 mb
winds during the same time period, give or take a few hours on
either side. Given extremely warm surface temperatures, it is not
likely that these strong winds may mix down to the surface. While
not a lock, these winds are certainly something to keep an eye on as
we get closer to the weekend given strong model consensus 7 days in
advance.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...high confidence in trends.

Broken line of low top showers (no lightning expected) moves
across southern New England through 05Z towards Cape
Cod/Nantucket. Brief heavy rain will accompany this front along
with an abrupt wind shift to the west, and gusts up to 45 kt
possible along and immediately behind the front. IFR/MVFR ahead
of the front, improve to VFR with the wind shift.

Tuesday...High confidence. VFR. Gusty west winds in the morning,
diminishing in the afternoon. Low risk of a few MVFR snow
showers western MA/CT from Lake Ontario.

Tuesday night...high confidence. VFR, light winds and dry, but
lowering towards MVFR with light snow/flurries possible toward
12z Wed.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Broken line of showers with
brief heavy rain and west wind gusts up to 40 kt between through
04z.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Broken line of showers with
brief heavy rain and west wind gusts up to 40 kt through 04Z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...VFR to start, then becoming IFR during the
afternoon. SN likely.

Thursday and Thursday Night: Breezy.

Friday: Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Chance SHRA.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

345 pm update...

Tonight...

Gale Warnings continue for all waters.  Cold front sweeps across the
waters with a wind shift to the west between 7 pm and midnight. The
wind shift will be accompanied by west winds gusting up to 40 kt
along with brief heavy showers. After midnight, drier air and
improving vsbys.

Tuesday...

West winds 20-30 kt in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.
Dry weather and good vsby.

Tuesday night...

1025 mb high pressure builds over the waters, providing light winds,
dry weather and good vsby. Chance of light snow toward daybreak Wed.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ019>024.
RI...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ007-008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/KS
NEAR TERM...Belk/Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Loconto/KS
AVIATION...Belk/Nocera
MARINE...Belk/Nocera/KS
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 6, 4:33 PM EST, 8 hours 23 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
433 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>018-026-RIZ001>006-072145-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-
433 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, northern Rhode
Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ019>024-RIZ007-008-072145-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
433 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts
and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-072145-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
433 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-072145-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
433 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/nwsboston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 6, 9:02 PM EST, 3 hours 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
902 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

CTZ002>004-MAZ003>007-010>012-014-026-070300-
Windham CT-Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Eastern Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex County MA-Western Essex MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Northwest Middlesex County MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-
902 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...A line of heavy showers with gusty wind will impact portions of
northern Connecticut and central and eastern Massachusetts...

At 859 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of heavy showers
and strong wind gusts along a line extending from near New Ipswich
to near Hardwick to Granby. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
         branches.

Locations impacted include...
Worcester, Springfield, Lowell, Lawrence, Framingham, Haverhill,
Waltham, Chicopee, Methuen, Enfield, Leominster, Fitchburg,
Billerica, Marlborough, Woburn, Shrewsbury, Chelmsford, Andover,
Lexington and Dracut.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7082 4283 7081 4281 7087 4280 7085
      4241 7126 4193 7193 4191 7291 4194 7290
      4271 7189 4270 7129 4274 7124 4274 7118
      4279 7118 4282 7115 4281 7107 4286 7103
      4288 7093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 265DEG 40KT 4273 7184 4239 7225 4197 7283

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KC
Special weather statement, Dec 6, 9:37 PM EST, 3 hours 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
937 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

CTZ003-004-MAZ004>007-012>019-RIZ001-002-070330-
Windham CT-Tolland CT-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Suffolk MA-Central Middlesex County MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Western Essex MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Western Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Northern Worcester MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
937 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...A line of heavy showers with gusty wind will impact portions of
northeast Connecticut, northern Rhode Island and eastern
Massachusetts...

At 936 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of heavy showers
and strong wind gusts along a line extending from near Lowell to
near Worcester to Willington. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
         branches.

Locations impacted include...
Boston, Worcester, Providence, Lowell, Cambridge, Brockton, Quincy,
Lynn, Newton, Lawrence, Somerville, Pawtucket, Framingham, Haverhill,
Waltham, Malden, Brookline, Medford, Weymouth and Revere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 7082 4264 7076 4269 7062 4258 7065
      4258 7066 4261 7066 4254 7090 4254 7087
      4242 7091 4243 7091 4246 7094 4237 7105
      4225 7096 4226 7096 4234 7088 4222 7089
      4182 7134 4184 7230 4270 7139 4288 7094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 282DEG 35KT 4265 7136 4230 7177 4188 7223

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KC
Special weather statement, Dec 6, 10:06 PM EST, 2 hours 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1006 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

CTZ004-MAZ005-007-012>021-RIZ001>007-070400-
Windham CT-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-Suffolk MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Central Middlesex County MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Western Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Eastern Kent RI-Newport RI-Northwest Providence RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Western Kent RI-Southeast Providence RI-
1006 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...A line of heavy showers with gusty wind will impact portions of
Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts through 11 PM...

At 1005 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of heavy showers
and strong wind gusts along a line extending from near Essex to near
Sherborn to Canterbury. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
         branches.

Locations impacted include...
Boston, Providence, Cambridge, New Bedford, Brockton, Quincy, Lynn,
Fall River, Newton, Warwick, Cranston, Somerville, Pawtucket, Malden,
Brookline, Plymouth, Medford, Taunton, Weymouth and Revere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4269 7062 4237 7105 4202 7062 4202 7068
      4201 7067 4201 7061 4149 7126 4151 7136
      4171 7116 4172 7116 4158 7133 4179 7137
      4179 7138 4153 7141 4152 7136 4151 7137
      4165 7205 4268 7079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 285DEG 33KT 4268 7077 4221 7135 4169 7199

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KC
Local storm report, Dec 6, 10:22 PM EST, 2 hours 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1022 PM EST MON DEC 06 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HANSON                  42.06N  70.85W
12/06/2021                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE AND 2 TO 3 SECTIONS OF POWER LINES DOWN ON
            BONNEY HILL LANE.

0739 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH PROVIDENCE        41.86N  71.46W
12/06/2021                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE INTO POWER LINES ON WATERMAN AVENUE

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DUXBURY                 42.04N  70.67W
12/06/2021                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON WEST STREET.

0802 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ACUSHNET                41.69N  70.91W
12/06/2021                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON ROBINSON ROAD.

0802 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SCITUATE                42.19N  70.73W
12/06/2021                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON COUNTRY WAY

0802 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COHASSET                42.23N  70.80W
12/06/2021                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON BEECHWOOD STREET AT WALNUT HILL
            LANE.

0822 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHELBURNE               42.58N  72.68W
12/06/2021                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON SHELBURNE CENTER ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BOX2103458 BOX2103457 BOX2103452 BOX2103453 BOX2103454
BOX2103455 BOX2103456

KJC
Special weather statement, Dec 6, 10:42 PM EST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1042 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

MAZ017>023-RIZ002>007-070430-
Southern Plymouth MA-Western Plymouth MA-Dukes MA-Barnstable MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Eastern Kent RI-Newport RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Western Kent RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
1042 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Barnstable,
Plymouth, Bristol, northeastern Washington, Newport, eastern Kent,
southeastern Providence and Bristol Counties through 1130 PM EST...

At 1041 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of heavy showers
and strong wind gusts along a line extending from 12 miles east of
Rockport to Norwell to near Exeter. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
         branches.

Locations impacted include...
Providence, New Bedford, Brockton, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston,
Plymouth, Taunton, East Providence, Coventry, Dartmouth, West
Warwick, Bridgewater, North Kingstown, Marshfield, Bristol, Marion,
Provincetown, Attleboro and Middleborough.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when you hear thunder. Do not resume outdoor activities
until at least 30 minutes after the storm has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 7055 4172 7062 4175 7063 4163 7091
      4165 7092 4142 7090 4153 7097 4146 7119
      4163 7122 4147 7136 4171 7116 4172 7116
      4158 7133 4179 7138 4148 7136 4157 7174
      4225 7080 4194 7062 4207 7012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 284DEG 36KT 4266 7036 4216 7082 4161 7161

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RM
Special weather statement, Dec 6, 11:13 PM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1113 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

MAZ019>023-070500-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Dukes MA-Barnstable MA-
1113 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Dukes,
Barnstable, southeastern Plymouth and southeastern Bristol Counties
through MIDNIGHT EST...

At 1113 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of heavy showers
and strong wind gusts along a line extending from near Provincetown
to Dartmouth. Movement was east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
         branches.

Locations impacted include...
New Bedford, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dartmouth, Falmouth, Brewster,
Marion, Provincetown, Yarmouth, Wareham, Sandwich, Bourne, Fairhaven,
Dennis, Mashpee, Harwich, Chatham, Mattapoisett, Orleans and
Wellfleet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when you hear thunder. Do not resume outdoor activities
until at least 30 minutes after the storm has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 4154 7000 4167 7002 4149 7075 4150 7075
      4168 7062 4168 7066 4172 7062 4175 7063
      4150 7104 4191 7055 4182 7054 4181 7053
      4172 7027 4179 7002 4203 7009 4207 7024
      4207 7022 4202 7003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 266DEG 56KT 4213 7023 4154 7096

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 6, 9:02 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBOXHampden, Middlesex, Worcester58 min
Dec 6, 9:37 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBOXEssex, Middlesex, Norfolk53 min
Dec 6, 10:06 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBOXBristol, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk54 min
Dec 6, 10:42 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBOXBristol, Plymouth48 min
Dec 6, 11:13 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBOXBarnstable47 min

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Massachusetts, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.