Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
948 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will increase in intensity across the region late today
into Tuesday as low pressure tracks up the east coast. This low
pressure departs slowly on Wednesday, before the next frontal
system and chance for mixed precipitation comes into the area
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

945 PM update...

A persistent band of heavy snow remains over Sullivan, Pike,
Wayne, and Lackawanna counties this evening. This band is
producing snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. Weaker lift
along the band's periphery extends across the NY/PA border.

We adjusted overnight snow totals based on current trends. It
appears frontogenesis will combine with lake enhancement and
produce persistent snow through the Finger Lakes Tuesday.

New grids are on the way.

330 pm update...

Forecast in decent shape. Little change made. The headlines
remain the same. Snow amounts vary greatly from 2 feet in Pike
County to less than 10 inches in Steuben and northern Oneida
Counties.

The snow is due to a large nor'easter off the NJ coast that is
moving slowly northeast. A band of heavy snow just southeast of
the area will push into the northern Poconos and southern
Catskills late today into this evening. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4
inches are likely. Travel will be greatly affected. This band
moves further north but weakens tonight. Snowfall rates of an
inch an hour are possible tonight for the rest of NEPA into
south central NY. Good support with moisture influx and a strong
low level jet. Also frontogenetical forcing.

Tuesday wrap around snow will continue mostly in CNY as an upper
level low pushes east across PA then off the coast. On the back
side of the upper level low lake effect will occur starting
Tuesday night. Lake moisture will help but will be a short fetch
and multiband with a northerly flow.

Temperatures are seasonable with lows in the 20s tonight, highs
25 to 35 Tuesday then upper teens to mid 20s Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
400 pm update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the lingering lake
effect snow showers across central NY Wednesday morning and into the
afternoon with a period of slightly warmer and drier weather
expected on Thursday.

Deep low pressure system off the coast will be exiting to the east
Wednesday morning as a stream of cold Canadian air drops south from
Ontario/Quebec into the eastern Great Lakes. This air mass will be
getting slightly entrained with some deeper moisture from the low
off the coast and also be cold enough to trigger the development of
lake effect snow showers. This combination is expected to allow the
snow to continue across much of the region into Wednesday afternoon.
Although snowfall rates will be much lower...less than 0.5 inch per
hour...there will also be gusty north/nw winds which will be able to
blow around the drier snow and produce blowing and drifting snow.
The band will also be quite transient which will allow for generally
an additional 1 to 2 inches.

A high amplitude ridge will build east through the Great Lakes late
Wednesday into Wed night and allow the lake effect snow to come to
an end. The ridge building in will also usher in at least a brief
period of warm air during the day Thursday. Temperatures will climb
into the 30s for much of the region...but remain dry through the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 pm update...
Weather conditions Thursday night will become more active once again
with a lead short wave trough lifting north/newd through the region,
and tapping into enough moisture to trigger at least a light/broad
area of precipitation. At this time the p-type is very uncertain.
The amount of warm air in place will determine how much of the
precip falls as liquid on the front end...and the timing of the cold
air arrival with the cold front will be important for the change
over to snow. Or the entire system could be cold enough for all
snow. Will need to see how models trend to get a better handle and
higher confidence in this system.

Friday may be the warmest day of the week with highs topping out in
the mid to upper 30s. The cold Canadian air will push in behind the
front and allow for a period of lake effect snow Friday night into
Saturday morning.

The overall synoptic pattern becomes quite uncertain once again
going into the weekend with a very cold air mass settling in from
the w/nw. Highs will swing back down into the 20s for most of the
region, with overnight lows into the teens and maybe single
digits.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread IFR vsbys are expected through most of the TAF period
as a winter storm continues to bring snow to the area. KSYR and
KRME will be the last two terminals to reach IFR vsbys, likely
by midnight or so. KAVP will have the worst conditions with
vsbys frequently below airport minimums this evening along with
occasional +SN. Ceilings will be mainly Fuel Alternate to MVFR.
Vsbys will slowly improve late tonight and Tuesday.

Sustained winds of 10-15 knots along with gusts of 20-25 knots
with lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow as well.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Restrictions likely in snow and lower ceilings,
especially the Central NY terminals.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Restrictions possible in
lake effect clouds for CNY, especially nearest Lake Ontario,
where a few light snow showers will be possible. Drier airmass
incoming may. KAVP should be VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...restrictions likely with a mix
of snow and rain.

Friday night through Saturday...possible lingering restrictions
in CNY. KAVP should be VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ024-036-037-
     045-046-055>057-062.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009.
     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ015>018-
     023-025-044.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ022.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-022030-
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
321 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ024-055>057-062-022030-
Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-
321 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ015>018-023-025-044-022030-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Schuyler-Tompkins-Cortland-
321 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ036-037-045-046-022030-
Madison-Southern Oneida-Chenango-Otsego-
321 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ022-022030-
Steuben-
321 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ009-022030-
Northern Oneida-
321 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1108 PM EST MON FEB 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY SNOW       2 WSW ANGELS            41.27N 75.41W
02/01/2021  M24.0 INCH       WAYNE              PA   PUBLIC

            2080 FT. ELEVATION.

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1109 PM EST MON FEB 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WAVERLY                 42.01N 76.54W
02/01/2021  M8.7 INCH        TIOGA              NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1133 PM EST MON FEB 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     SNOW             1 WSW WEST CORNERS      42.11N 76.08W
02/01/2021  M6.0 INCH        BROOME             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1151 PM EST MON FEB 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     SNOW             HORSEHEADS              42.17N 76.83W
02/01/2021  M6.3 INCH        CHEMUNG            NY   PUBLIC

&&

JRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 AM     SNOW             1 ESE MILL CITY         41.49N 75.83W
02/02/2021  M13.2 INCH       WYOMING            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1222 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

NYZ046-057-062-020615-
Otsego-Sullivan-Delaware-
1222 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT OTSEGO...DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...

At 1215 AM EST, a band of heavy snowfall was moving into the eastern
portions of Otsego, Delaware, and Sullivan Counties in New York.
Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will occur with this
heavier snow band, and may persist for a few hours.

Downslope flow off the higher elevations of the Catskills is
reducing snowfall intensity over western Otsego and Delaware
Counties. More moderate snowfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour are
more likely in this area.

Some Locations impacted will include... Rockland, Oneonta,
Fallsburg, Monticello, Liberty, Bethel, Sidney, Neversink, South
Fallsburg and Walton.

Major roadways impacted will include portions of I-88 east of
Sidney, and Highway 17 east of Deposit.

LAT...LON 4150 7475 4145 7477 4161 7508 4162 7505
      4181 7507 4205 7543 4251 7540 4287 7525
      4291 7510 4283 7491 4287 7488 4283 7465
      4251 7471 4235 7443 4221 7453 4217 7446
      4202 7478 4188 7447 4175 7457 4159 7436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 092DEG 8KT 4237 7472

MPH