Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Albany, NY

055 
WGUS61 KALY 181931
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
331 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-191015-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0006.210819T0000Z-210820T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Brattleboro, 
North River, Greenwich, Frankfort, Albany, Bennington, Eagle Bay, 
Long Lake, Waterford, Saratoga Springs, Middleburgh, Johnsburg, 
Altamont, Jefferson, Gilboa, Atwell, Granville, Duanesburg, Pownal, 
Rotterdam, Berne, Glens Falls, West Brattleboro, McKeever, North 
Blenheim, Saratoga Lake, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, Clifton Park, 
Eagle Bridge, Mariaville, Berlin, Wells, Northwood, North Creek, 
Herkimer, Preston Hollow, Delanson, Sabattis, Woodford State Park, 
Stratton, Cobleskill, Old Forge, Ilion, Johnstown, Mohawk, 
Breakabeen, Stephentown, Caroga Lake, West Glens Falls, 
Mechanicville, Little Falls, Hoosick Falls, Middle Falls, Nobleboro, 
Hague, Warrensburg, Hoffmeister, Bolton Landing, Knox, Burnt Hills, 
Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Fort Edward, Londonderry, Big Moose, North 
Easton, Guilford Center, Troy, Bellows Falls, Stamford, Westerlo, 
Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson Falls, and Schenectady
331 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING 
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of New York and southern Vermont, including the following 
  areas, in New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern 
  Schenectady, Hamilton, Montgomery, Northern Fulton, Northern 
  Herkimer, Northern Saratoga, Northern Warren, Northern Washington, 
  Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, Southern Herkimer, 
  Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, Western Albany, Western 
  Rensselaer and Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, 
  Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham.

* From 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening.

* Heavy rain from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will track 
  into the region tonight, exiting Thursday.  Many areas can expect 
  1 to 3 inches of rain through Thursday, with locally higher 
  amounts.

* Heavy rain will result in standing water in low lying areas and 
  scattered flash flooding.  Rivers and streams may quickly rise 
  late tonight through Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JLV

046 
WGUS61 KALY 190012
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-191100-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-210820T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Brattleboro, 
North River, Greenwich, Frankfort, Albany, Bennington, Eagle Bay, 
Long Lake, Waterford, Saratoga Springs, Middleburgh, Johnsburg, 
Altamont, Jefferson, Gilboa, Atwell, Granville, Duanesburg, Pownal, 
Rotterdam, Berne, Glens Falls, West Brattleboro, McKeever, North 
Blenheim, Saratoga Lake, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, Clifton Park, 
Eagle Bridge, Mariaville, Berlin, Wells, Northwood, North Creek, 
Herkimer, Preston Hollow, Delanson, Sabattis, Woodford State Park, 
Stratton, Cobleskill, Old Forge, Ilion, Johnstown, Mohawk, 
Breakabeen, Stephentown, Caroga Lake, West Glens Falls, 
Mechanicville, Little Falls, Hoosick Falls, Middle Falls, Nobleboro, 
Hague, Warrensburg, Hoffmeister, Bolton Landing, Knox, Burnt Hills, 
Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Fort Edward, Londonderry, Big Moose, North 
Easton, Guilford Center, Troy, Bellows Falls, Stamford, Westerlo, 
Amsterdam, Gloversville, Hudson Falls, and Schenectady
812 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of New York and southern Vermont, including the following 
  areas, in New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern 
  Schenectady, Hamilton, Montgomery, Northern Fulton, Northern 
  Herkimer, Northern Saratoga, Northern Warren, Northern Washington, 
  Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, Southern Herkimer, 
  Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, Western Albany, Western 
  Rensselaer and Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, 
  Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham.

* Through Thursday evening.

* Moderate to heavy rainfall from Post Tropical Cyclone Fred will 
  move across the region overnight into Thursday. Many areas can 
  expect 1 to 3 inches of rain through Thursday, with locally higher 
  amounts. Most of this rain will occur in a 2 to 4 hour period.

* Heavy rain will result in standing water in low lying areas and 
  scattered flash flooding.  Rivers and streams may quickly rise 
  late tonight through Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Rathbun

971 
WGUS61 KALY 190738
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
338 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021


NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-192100-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-210820T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, Wells, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, 
Frankfort, Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, 
Saratoga Lake, Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, 
North Creek, North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, 
Whitehall, Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls, 
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, 
and Bellows Falls
338 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of New York and southern Vermont, including the 
  following areas, in New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern 
  Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Hamilton, Montgomery, 
  Northern Fulton, Northern Herkimer, Northern Saratoga, 
  Northern Warren, Northern Washington, Schoharie, Southeast 
  Warren, Southern Fulton, Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, 
  Southern Washington, Western Albany, Western Rensselaer, and 
  Western Schenectady. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern 
  Windham, and Western Windham. 

* Through this evening.

* Moderate to heavy rainfall from Post Tropical Cyclone Fred will
  move across the region today. Many areas can expect 1 to 3
  inches of rain, with locally higher amounts.  

* Heavy rain will result in standing water in low lying areas and
  scattered flash flooding. Rivers and streams may quickly rise
  through this evening.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

591 
WGUS61 KALY 191208
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
808 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

NYZ038>040-047>054-082-191315-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-210820T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western
Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Livingstonville, Dolgeville, Frankfort, 
Albany, Ilion, Middleburgh, Altamont, Jefferson, Gilboa, Waterford, 
Duanesburg, Rotterdam, Berne, North Blenheim, Clifton Park, Eagle 
Bridge, Mariaville, Mechanicville, Berlin, Herkimer, Preston Hollow, 
Delanson, Hoosick Falls, Cobleskill, Johnstown, Mohawk, Breakabeen, 
Stephentown, Caroga Lake, Little Falls, Knox, Burnt Hills, Ballston 
Spa, Troy, Westerlo, Amsterdam, Gloversville, and Schenectady
808 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central New York and 
eastern New York, including the following areas, in east central New 
York, Eastern Albany, Eastern Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, 
Schoharie, Southern Saratoga, Western Albany, Western Rensselaer and 
Western Schenectady. In eastern New York, Montgomery, Northern 
Fulton, Southern Fulton and Southern Herkimer has been cancelled.

Heavy rainfall has moved out of the area. Therefore, the Flood Watch 
is cancelled.

$$

NYZ032-033-041>043-083-084-VTZ013>015-192100-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-210820T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Middle Falls, Brattleboro, North River, 
Greenwich, Eagle Bay, Long Lake, Saratoga Springs, Johnsburg, 
Atwell, Granville, Pownal, Glens Falls, West Brattleboro, McKeever, 
Saratoga Lake, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, Wells, Northwood, North 
Creek, Sabattis, Woodford State Park, Old Forge, Hudson Falls, West 
Glens Falls, Bennington, Nobleboro, Hague, Warrensburg, Bolton 
Landing, Stratton, Cambridge, Fort Edward, Londonderry, Big Moose, 
North Easton, Guilford Center, Bellows Falls, Stamford, and 
Hoffmeister
808 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of New York and southern Vermont, including the following 
  areas, in New York, Hamilton, Northern Herkimer, Northern 
  Saratoga, Northern Warren, Northern Washington, Southeast Warren 
  and Southern Washington. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern 
  Windham and Western Windham.

* Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* Moderate to heavy rainfall from Post Tropical Cyclone Fred will 
  continue to move across the region through this afternoon. Some 
  areas may see an additional 1 inch of rain with locally higher 
  amounts.

* Heavy rain will result in standing water in low lying areas and 
  scattered flash flooding.  Rivers and streams may quickly rise 
  this morning into the afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JLV

358 
WGUS61 KALY 191550
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
1150 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

NYZ032-033-041>043-083-084-VTZ013>015-191700-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-210820T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Middle Falls, Brattleboro, North River, 
Greenwich, Eagle Bay, Long Lake, Saratoga Springs, Johnsburg, 
Atwell, Granville, Pownal, Glens Falls, West Brattleboro, McKeever, 
Saratoga Lake, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, Wells, Northwood, North 
Creek, Sabattis, Woodford State Park, Old Forge, Hudson Falls, West 
Glens Falls, Bennington, Nobleboro, Hague, Warrensburg, Bolton 
Landing, Stratton, Cambridge, Fort Edward, Londonderry, Big Moose, 
North Easton, Guilford Center, Bellows Falls, Stamford, and 
Hoffmeister
1150 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of New York and southern Vermont, 
including the following areas, in New York, Hamilton, Northern 
Herkimer, Northern Saratoga, Northern Warren, Northern Washington, 
Southeast Warren and Southern Washington. In southern Vermont, 
Bennington, Eastern Windham and Western Windham has been cancelled.

The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

JLV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid, tropical airmass will move into the region
tonight with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous north
and west of the Capital Region. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone
Fred will bring a more widespread, and possibly heavy rainfall
Wednesday night through Thursday with humid conditions
persisting.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers have decreased in coverage and intensity and are still
most concentrated north of the Mohawk Valley and into southern
VT. The low level and midlevel forcing associated with an upper
impulse just north of the Great Lakes has weakened as it slowly
lifts east and north. There is still enough forcing to support
scattered showers with light to moderate rain through daybreak
in areas north of the Mohawk Valley. Areas from the Capital
Region and Berkshires and points south should see more isolated
showers.

Temperatures may fall another degree or two, with lows in the
mid 60s to around 70 by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...The guidance continues to vary on the track of the
remnant circulation of TC Fred. The circulation lifts northeast
of the TN Valley into the OH Valley and wrn PA. In the confluent
zone northeast of Fred, enhanced low-level convergence will
allow for periods of moderate to heavy showers to occur west of
most of the forecast area but then to slide eastward during the
day. In the tropical environment, PWATs will be in the 1.7-2.0+
range range. Low stratus will likely linger over the region
into the late morning into the afternoon. A conditional
thunderstorm threat is possible if any heating occurs during the
day. Low-level shears increases with low to moderate
instability. An isolated tornado may be possible or damaging
wind gusts as a Marginal Risk is in place southwest of Albany
along the eastern Catskills, Schoharie and western Mohawk
Valley. Some locally heavy rain is possible, but the guidance
(majority has shifted north and west) with the low and mid level
ridging building in off the coast. Highs will only get into the
70s to spotty lower 80s in the valleys. Some 60s will linger
over the higher terrain.

Wed night to Thu...A subtle shift in the rainfall with TC Fred
with the EC/NAM trending north and west to the GFS and some of
the CAMs. The NAM is the furthest west slamming the Adirondacks
and western Mohawk Valley northward with the heaviest rainfall.
The EC and GFS hit the northern Catskills/Capital
Region/northern Berkshires north and west with 1-3" of
rainfall. We had an extensive collaboration call with WPC with
neighboring WFOs to shift the QPF north some and move the SLIGHT
Risk for excessive rainfall north of the mid Hudson Valley in
Day 2. The Marginal Risk was expanded in Day 3. See the hydro
discussion with more details. PWATS are +2 to +3 STDEVs above
normal so intense rainfall rates with local orographic
enhancement are possible. The timing and placement of the
rainfall is uncertain but locations north and west of the
Capital Region may get the higher QPF at this time. 1-3" with
locally higher amounts are possible. Low to modest amounts of
instability will exist some isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are possible in the tropical air mass. Lows WED night will be in
the 60s. THU highs will be in the 70s with some 60s over the
mtns. It will likely be a gray day with temps below normal.

Thursday night...showers diminish with the remnant circulation
of Fred moving downstream of New England. Have kept a chance of
showers in prior to midnight with a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lowered PoPs after 06Z with some weak ridging
building in the wave of the trough. Some patchy fog may also
occur with lows in the 60s still in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long-term forecast period will continue to feature warm and
humid weather conditions with day-to-day chances for showers and
thunderstorms as eastern New York and western New England sits in
the warm sector of a storm system well off to our northwest with an
associated frontal boundary to our north, a cold surface frontal
boundary to our west, and upper level ridging/higher geo-potential
heights overhead.

As far as precipitation chances, there's been better continuity
amongst forecast guidance overall over the past few days, but still
some uncertainty in the spread. In general, the deterministic
solutions are showing more spread than the ensembles. Given the
abundance of moisture that's forecast to be over the area with PWAT
values still ranging 1-2 STDEVs above normal, weakness in the mid-
levels with a weak mid level low and associated impulses, and an
unstable environment, afternoon/evening scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day of this long-term period.
Have 30-40% PoPs each day of the extended during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Given that 0-6km bulk shear values are low and there's weak flow
aloft, not expecting any thunderstorms to become organized. That
said, thunderstorms (diurnally-driven) will be of the garden/pulse
variety. Rainfall could become moderate to heavy under any
convection given the high moisture environment with PWATS 1-2 STDEVs
above normal and dewpoint values in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

There's still uncertainty in the timing of the cold fropa. Right
now, it appears to be in the Tuesday evening into Wednesday
timeframe given how slow the system is moving. Once the cold front
passes the region, it will being a cooler and drier airmass into the
region mid to late next week.

As far as temperatures, high temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower to mid 80s along the river valleys with 70s over the higher
terrain. Nighttime will remain warm and humid with overnight lows
holding in the mid to upper 60s (upper 50s and lower 60s higher
elevations).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Moist low levels and nocturnal cooling may allow some MVFR
stratus to expand into the terminals for the remainder of the
night into the morning hours Wednesday. Some IFR cigs/vsby
possible at KGFL where showers will be relatively more
prevalent. Any remaining MVFR cigs should mix out by late
morning or early afternoon with VFR conditions under multilayer
clouds taking over. Showers will be around at times, likely not
prevailing (with the exception of KGFL through the morning
hours), so have used VCSH wording. If there is enough thinning
of the clouds in the afternoon, some modest instability could
develop and TS cannot be ruled out. Included PROB30 at KALB
where a TS appears relatively most likely, although it is
uncertain.

VFR conditions continue past sunset, but MVFR cigs may
redevelop toward the end of the 06Z TAF cycle at KPSF/KPOU. Some
rain with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Fred may reach the
terminals by the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be from the south to southeast at around 5 kt through
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warm and humid, tropical airmass will move into the
region tonight with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
The showers and a few thunderstorms will be most numerous north and
west of the Capital Region tomorrow. The remnants of Tropical
Cyclone Fred will bring a more widespread rainfall Wednesday night
through Thursday with some thunderstorms and humid conditions
persisting.

A moist, tropical air mass will be over the area through
Thursday with periods of rain and elevated RH values. Winds will
be south to southwest for much of the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Localized hydro issues may arise Wednesday night through
Thursday across the ALY HSA.

A warm front will move through the region early tonight.
Some late afternoon and evening, slow- moving showers and
thunderstorms may move back into this area north and west of the
Capital Region. This may result in an isolated flash flooding
threat mainly over the Mohawk Valley into the southern
Adirondacks. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in place in
this area per WPC guidance.

The remnants of TC Fred will approach late Wednesday night into
Thursday. An area of heavy rainfall will likely accompany the
remnant circulation. There is uncertainty as to the timing and area
of heavy rainfall, but the risk is maximized has shifted
northward and is from the northern Catskills, Capital Region
north and west, where a slight risk of excessive rainfall
exists per WPC collab this pm. Rainfall amounts will be in the
1 to 3 inch range.

Fairly dry antecedent conditions should mitigate the flood
threat somewhat, but areas of urban/poor drainage flooding and a
few flash floods cannot be ruled out especially north and west
of Albany.

MMEFS and NERFC guidance shows no main stem river flooding at
this time. However, the trends will continue to be monitored. A
Flash Flood Watch may be needed later in time especially for
some areas.

Chances of rain persists Friday into the weekend, but will be
more localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Thompson/Wasula

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
503 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084-
VTZ013>015-181100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
503 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York excluding the western Mohawk
Valley and southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday through Monday, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. In addition, the remnants of
Tropical Cyclone Fred will approach the area Wednesday night into
Thursday accompanied by the possibility of heavy rainfall. While the
timing and area of the heaviest rain is uncertain, the best
potential is from the Capital Region north and west for the heavy
rainfall and possibly flash flooding.  A Flash Flood Watch may be
needed for some areas. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible
over the entire area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ032-033-038>040-082-181100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Fulton-
503 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight to low chance of thunderstorms this evening. The
storms could produce locally heavy rainfall resulting in urban and
poor drainage flooding and isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday through Monday, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. In addition, the remnants of
Tropical Cyclone Fred will approach the area Wednesday night into
Thursday accompanied by the possibility of heavy rainfall. While the
timing and area of the heaviest rain is uncertain, heavy rainfall
and possibly flash flooding may occur.

A Flash Flood Watch may be
needed for the area later in time. Urban and poor drainage flooding
is possible over the entire area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state and CDC guidelines.